2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[Katdaddy]

The Night Crew always does a great job. Glad the Day and Night Crew are holding down the fort while I am up in Ft Worth for the next week.....hot and windy up here. A very messy GOM continues this evening. Looking more possible that development if any will be over the Central GOM and then move NE.

[PA&HOUwx]

The Night Crew always does a great job. Glad the Day and Night Crew are holding down the fort while I am up in Ft Worth for the next week.....hot and windy up here. A very messy GOM continues this evening. Looking more possible that development if any will be over the Central GOM and then move NE.

Right. My guess would be a tropical depression forms and moves off to the NE unfortunately away from TX. The disturbance looks rather healthy at this point and wouldn't be surprised to see a cherry outta this with the next update. Places near FL should pick up a bunch of rain in the 6-10" range.

[texoz]

What's the blobby flare up over the Yucatan? Any low pressure in the area?

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH
OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Belmer]

Interesting that something could be forming way out there this early.
Steve, you mentioned that models were picking up on something for next week into the first part of July. Is this it?

[srainhoutx]

Interesting that something could be forming way out there this early.
Steve, you mentioned that models were picking up on something for next week into the first part of July. Is this it?

Dry air will be an issue for this wave until it reaches the Caribbean. That said the are hints a Kelvin Wave approaches from the W and the Euro does have Hurricane Daniel forming offshore of the West Coast of Mexico in the long range. This wave could bring some increasing tropical moisture and convection to the NW Caribbean and the Western Gulf during the second week of July. We will see. Of course I leave town on the 11th to attend Amwx Conference II with NHC Forecaster Jack Beven, HPC Forecaster David Roth, Retired HPC Forecaster Wes Junker and HPC Forecaster Paul Kocin (formerly of TWC/Winter Storm Specialist) and I have jokingly said to our Moderating Team a storm will hit while I'm away....lol



I will add the latest Eurosip long range guidance is suggesting somewhat favorable conditions for the Western Basin through September. I would not be surprised to see increasing tropical troubles as we move closer to the end of July and on into September for the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

[biggerbyte]

Okay! Now we can stick a fork in Debby. Generally, the models were wrong all the way Debbies life span, if you look at the overall beginning to ending of her. Her finally was to head out with a southerly track, and then merge with a frontal system. I shutter to think things like no upper level low, no dry air, and no fronts to deal with. What would the outcome have been. The other scary thing is the unpredictability of these things anymore. What are we to do with storms like Ike if we have no one, or nothing that are/is going to be able to give us even a remotely accurate forecast. Debby is gone. What about the next one?

Stay tuned.

[gocuse22]

I can see not one storm in July..

[srainhoutx]

The Euro and to some extent the GFS does bring the Central Atlantic disturbance/wave into the Bay of Campeche in the longer range near the beginning of the second week of July.

[Gene Norman]

Seen the recent satellite pics showing all that Saharan dust wafting over the West coast of Africa?

atlantic_tmo_2012177.jpg

Could be a sign of a slow July. Also anecdotally, relatives in St. Thomas say they're seeing some of that dust, which they take as a good sign that the season could be quet. Meanwhile, anybody notice the 200 mb High over the BOC hovering over low pressure at the surface and mid-levels in the same place? I know we're saying rain here for the weekend; hope that's ALL...

[rnmm]

I hope that is all too Mr. Norman, I am leaving for North Carolina in a little over an hour

[CaliforniaSux]

You thinking a little spin up is possible with that Gene?

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder about the area of thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico. This is posted in another thread.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... 570#p35287

[srainhoutx]

Saharan Dust covers the MDR and that likely will not change in the foreseeable future. Any potential tropical development will likely be a bit closer to home in the NW Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico as we head into July...

[Gene Norman]

Anybody else seeing that the NAM is consistently sending a fast-moving low in the Northern Gulf toward us? Last three runs have been suggesting this.

eta_84_sfc.gif

[weatherguy425]

Anybody else seeing that the NAM is consistently sending a fast-moving low in the Northern Gulf toward us? Last three runs have been suggesting this.

ECMWF has has been hinting at a strong southerly flow and tropical wave/surge in moisture around the middle of next week.

[Ptarmigan]

If July is wet like right now, we should really keep an eye on the tropics. There is a correlation between wet July's and hurricanes making landfall on Southeast Texas.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=334

[redneckweather]

Good catch Gene. I heard this as well. Something about a wave coming across Florida and into the central Gulf over the weekend/beginning of next week?

[srainhoutx]

There is a mid/upper level spin just N of the Yucatan this morning with the monsoonal trough extending ENE into the Bahamas. Some vorticity at the 850mb level may head toward Louisiana during the late weekend/early next week timeframe. We will see.

[Portastorm]

FWIW, JB was tweeting this morning about watching the north central Gulf this weekend.