June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[jasons2k]

Plenty of sun - may be enought to get things going today...

[Ptarmigan]

The storm over North Texas has fizzled. I wonder if we will see more rain.

[Ptarmigan]

1) Euro shows a well developed tropical wave, almost a depression, in 10 days about to make landfall on the Texas coast. GFS hits Florida in 9 days with a somewhat better developed system, a loosely organized depression with rain would be wonderful for the lawn.

I suspect the pattern that is unfolding is similar to what we saw in 1989. Hurricane Cosme made landfall near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the EPAC and left over energy developed into what would become Tropical Storm Allison in the Western Gulf in late June of that year. We will keep an eye on the developing 94E in the EPAC in our Hurricane Central area of the forum as guidance suggests a somewhat similar setup. The pattern does suggest increased moisture in the Western Caribbean/Western Gulf as the monsoonal trough lifts N and multiple areas of vorticity develop within the monsoonal gyre of a broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche. Forecaster Roth covers this in the HPC overnight extended forecast...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

ELSEWHERE...A RETROGRADING REX BLOCK MOVED FROM THE 60TH PARALLEL
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...WITH ITS SOUTHERN MEMBER DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST CUBA...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MID TO LATE
JUNE. DUE TO THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST...DISTURBED WEATHER/A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY DRIFT NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GENERAL RIDGING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND INCREASINGLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FAVORS DISTURBED WEATHER WITHIN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...AND
THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO PROSPECTS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN THIS REGION. SATURDAY SEEMS TO
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARID NEW MEXICO...BUT EVEN
THEN THEY SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
COULD DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD.

Tropical Storm Allison of 1989 was quite a rain maker for Texas and Louisiana. It even took an eerily similar path that Allison (2001) took. Only difference is that Allison (2001) went back over the Gulf of Mexico.

Satellite Image


Rainfall Map

[srainhoutx]

Our Coastal Counties folks need to keep on eye to the sky. Those storms are capable of spinning up a tropical funnel or two with near/offshore waterspouts.

[txflagwaver]

Bring it!!

[jasons2k]

I see two areas to watch - outflow/trough moving back inland and entering metro area from the south. Also look to the north - there is an Arc of TCU going-up near the lakes - from northern Newton/Jasper counties over towards Northern Montgomery county - looks like some surface convergence may be forming a line there as too. And of course we have something (old outflow?) possibly moving from the NW later too. I am optimistic a lot of us will see rain today.

[srainhoutx]

I see two areas to watch - outflow/trough moving back inland and entering metro area from the south. Also look to the north - there is an Arc of TCU going-up near the lakes - from northern Newton/Jasper counties over towards Northern Montgomery county - looks like some surface convergence may be forming a line there as too. And of course we have something (old outflow?) possibly moving from the NW later too. I am optimistic a lot of us will see rain today.

Agree

[spadilly]

outflow moving NW through the city now:

[jasons2k]

Yeah and convection fizzling

[Katdaddy]

Just checked my weather station and I see I picked up .59" of rain today. YES!!! I have missed all the fun the last several days and really needed some rain.

[srainhoutx]

The chatter has begun from local NWS offices across Texas regarding the potential tropical mischief the models have been suggesting next week. It's always a good reminder to dust off those Hurricane Plans as a precaution, although at this time we are not expecting significant development other than increasing moisture and rain chances later this weekend into the coming work week.

[PA&HOUwx]

You guys can't start the tropical action until I get down there! Even if this disturbance is just a depression, I wanna be there

[Katdaddy]

I hear that PA&HOUwx. I will be in NTX for 2 weeks and do not want any tropical weather.

[Gene Norman]

Anybody ELSE tired of answering questions about a storm in the Gulf next week? Yes, our old friend, the GFS continues the fantasy of deep low pressure emerging from the Bay of Campeche sometime next Thursday or Friday and targeting somewhere. Usually, its easy to dismiss this kind of thing, but the darn model KEEPS on doing this. With each run, it sends the yet-to-be-developed storm to either Florida, Mobile, New Orleans or the Texas coast. Today's 18Z run:

takes the low and sends it to Louisiana:

More importantly, though is a developing wave that should start drifting our way from the Northern Gulf. That should boost overall rain chances Mon-Wed before whatever does or doesn't get going in the southern Gulf. We'll see.

[PA&HOUwx]

I hear that PA&HOUwx. I will be in NTX for 2 weeks and do not want any tropical weather.

Absolutely, it is the worst. Missing any tropical system is equivalent to missing a decent snowstorm in the wintertime for me. I must say though, even if I miss this tropical disturbance, hopefully it brings much need rain to southern TX. Like Gene said, at least the POPs will be higher during the week with a nice south easterly fetch of moisture. Gotta increase the soil moisture to help keep those summer time temps down, every little bit helps.

[Andrew]

Anybody ELSE tired of answering questions about a storm in the Gulf next week? Yes, our old friend, the GFS continues the fantasy of deep low pressure emerging from the Bay of Campeche sometime next Thursday or Friday and targeting somewhere. Usually, its easy to dismiss this kind of thing, but the darn model KEEPS on doing this. With each run, it sends the yet-to-be-developed storm to either Florida, Mobile, New Orleans or the Texas coast. Today's 18Z run:

The attachment gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip.gif is no longer available

takes the low and sends it to Louisiana:

The attachment gfs_namer_228_10m_wnd_precip.gif is no longer available

More importantly, though is a developing wave that should start drifting our way from the Northern Gulf. That should boost overall rain chances Mon-Wed before whatever does or doesn't get going in the southern Gulf. We'll see.

A little less model consistency tonight so far. While the gfs still shows a developing system possibly affecting the gulf the cmc has lost track of the system. The Euro is not out yet but what does remain constant is the flow of moisture. Models continue to show the ridging off of the East coast expanding west with a trough off to the west. This as a result could cause a weakness for moisture to return to the area middle/late next week. Also looking at SST's and potential, things are beginning to heat up

[srainhoutx]

Good to see Gene around and after a conversation prior to last nights newscast, Gene will be posting a bit more and we welcome him to our team as a Moderator. Gene will be utilizing our twitter link as well for input, so for those that follow us on twitter, look for his updates.

The storms that were in the Dallas area last night have drifted SE into E TX/LA with outflow boundaries to our N. HGX has issued a Flash Flood Warning in Houston County were 4+ inches of rain has fallen early this morning with a very strong thunderstorm. Strong storms continue to trek S in our Northern Counties mainly E of I-45 and that should continue the next couple of hours. Isolated showers/storms may be an issue during peak heating again today, so we'll monitor that potential. The GFS and Euro suggest the upper low associated with the morning showers/storms will drop S into the Gulf and drift Westward during the weekend keeping an unsettled pattern in place with daily scattered showers/storms across the Region. There remains some uncertainty regarding where and when this disturbance will track inland, but chances are a wet pattern will be ahead depending on which model is more correct.

The 00Z GFS and Euro both suggest a broad area of low pressure developing next week as the monsoonal trough lifts N and moisture and rainfall chances increase in the Bay of Campeche. The GFS is rather aggressive suggesting a meandering TS or Hurricane developing just E of Tampico while the Euro keeps the board low pressure a bit weaker, but also very slow to move. Meanwhile TS Carlotta has formed in the EPAC and is expected to become a Hurricane near the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Friday. Needless to say the tropics are showing signs of becoming active and eyes turn to the Western Caribbean/Gulf later this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS NE INTO THE
UPR MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF E TX AND WRN
LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS
THE NRN RCKYS AND NRN PLNS TO THE UPR GRT LKS THIS PERIOD...NW OF A
WEAK RIDGE OVER THE MID MS AND OH VLYS. THE RIDGE WILL SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFY AS FAIRLY STRONG UPR LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SE SK/WRN
ND MOVES ENE INTO NW ONT. A SECONDARY BELT OF ENHANCED W TO NW FLOW
WILL ARC FROM CNTRL NM ACROSS SE TX INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.
WITHIN THIS FLOW...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
PRESENCE OF TWO MCVS...ONE NOW OVER THE SABINE RVR VLY AND THE OTHER
THE FL PANHANDLE. BOTH MCVS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC WAVE NOW IN ERN SD SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE
INTO MN...WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW TRACKING ENE ACROSS SRN MB AND WRN
ONT LATER TODAY/TNGT. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THE SD LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE E/SE INTO THE UPR MS VLY/CNTRL PLNS TNGT...BUT
SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY FROM UPR MI TO NW KS BY 12Z FRI. THE COLD
FRONT AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE CNTRL
HIGH PLNS...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SVR
STORMS THIS PERIOD.

...UPR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
COMPLEX...LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTM SYSTEM NOW OVER CNTRL MN/WRN WI IS
ELEVATED ATOP RESIDUAL COOL DOME ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING GRT LKS
SFC HIGH. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE APPEARS PRESENT /PER MPX RAOB/
FOR SVR HAIL IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON ITS SRN
AND SWRN FLANK...SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT...SLOWLY MOISTENING...40 KT
SSWLY LLJ.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MN MCS...AND S OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...APPRECIABLE LOW LVL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED BY AFTN AHEAD
OF ESE-ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WRN/CNTRL MN SSW INTO SE SD AND NW
IA. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DEEP
EML...EXPECT SBCAPE TO RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG BY AFTN. AS
DEEP WSWLY FLOW AND SHEAR STRENGTHEN ON SRN FRINGE OF UPR
IMPULSE...SETUP COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH
HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES...DESPITE FACT THAT STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL PASS N OF REGION. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST NEAR RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL/ERN MN AND
ADJACENT NW WI...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVE.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION STILL REMAIN NEBULOUS S OF
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS. BUT SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS THAT
WILL BE CONTINUING E ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT.
THESE MAY ENHANCE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD
FRONT AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER SRN/ERN NEB AND WRN KS/FAR ERN CO
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

WHILE WSWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST...PRESENCE OF DEEP EML
ATOP A MOISTENING AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH PW INCREASING TO
AOA 1.50 INCHES/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...WITH
SBCAPE TO 4000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND. GIVEN FOCUS FOR LOW LVL ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE STALLING FRONT...AND NOCTURNAL/DYNAMIC STRENGTHENING
OF SLY LLJ AFTER SUNSET...THE STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCC.
SUCH A SYSTEM COULD YIELD MORE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND/SVR
HAIL BEFORE IT WEAKENS EARLY FRI.

...E TX/GULF CST TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI...
COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST AIR /PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ AND PERIODIC
UPLIFT INVOF AFOREMENTIONED MCVS EXPECTED TO FOSTER A CONTINUING
RISK FOR STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WIND FROM E TX E/SE ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF CST. WEAK DEEP
SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUSTENANCE. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER E/SE TX AND WRN LA...WHERE 30 KT NWLY SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A FEW LONGER-LIVED CELLS. WHILE ALL THE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...SPORADIC SVR ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 06/14/2012

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is much more aggressive regarding showers/storms chances across the area this afternoon than the NAM (WRF/NMM). The 11Z/12Z HRRR runs did suggest scattered activity and perhaps a stronger storm or two. As we saw yesterday in the Dallas area, guidance is not doing a good job at all with the discrete meso features, so we'll see how it all plays out.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS remains very insistent on developing a board area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche next week. The GFS also advertises and upper level disturbance will slowly trek W along the Coast from SE LA in the time frame prior to the tropical mess in the SW Gulf. That would suggest increasing daily showers/storms closer to the Coast throughout the upcoming weekend into early next week as moisture continues to surge inland and as more organization of the BoC disturbance continues. If we see an INVEST, we will likely begin the shift to the Hurricane Central area and keep observations and such in our Weather Forum section. Stay Tuned!

Edit to add:
We often see in a monsoonal trough lifts N multiple areas of vorticity suggesting a basic monsoonal gyre within the broad circulation. What we will need to monitor is if a consolidation can occur over time. That said the GFS and even the Euro are suggesting very slow movement to the N, or drifting for several days.