March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

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wxdata
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Saturday looking a little more interesting (especially north and east of Houston:)

"GIVEN THE COLD NATURE OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM...THE STRONG FORCING...AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SEEM TO EXISTS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO
TREND TOWARD THE CURRENT SLOWER/MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF...SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES."
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Thursday morning email from jeff:

Nice weather today and Friday will end Saturday as a strong late season cold front brings an impressive cold snap for mid March.



Potential for frost/light freeze on Sunday morning and Monday morning for portions of the area.



High pressure will begin to move eastward today allowing the development of onshore winds by tonight. Gulf of Mexico is highly worked over from the past storm system with little moisture to be found. SE winds will increase on Friday with dewpoints recovering into the 50’s by Friday evening. Potent upper level storm will drop through the Rockies and into late Friday into Saturday while cold air over NW Canada surges southward down the plains. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be fairly modest with only upper 50 degree dewpoints expected by early Saturday. ECMWF is slower and deeper with the trough and provides a much better shot at showers and thunderstorms. However will side toward the faster GFS with a dense cold air mass likely pushing southward faster than guidance would tend to show. Additionally, systems of late have had a tough time producing wetting rains over TX with poor quality moisture return off a rather cold Gulf of Mexico.



Dynamics will be impressive with this system and if better quality moisture can be drawn northern then a severe weather threat would be possible mainly along and east of I-45. Feel most areas will see some rainfall with this event given strong frontal forcing…with the greatest coverage E of I-45 and the least coverage toward Matagorda Bay. Very strong offshore flow develops behind the front with 40-50kts around 850mb for Saturday afternoon and temperatures dropping into the lower 50’s.Expect sustained 15-25mph winds at the surface making for a very blustery first day of spring.



Big question is how cold for Sunday and Monday mornings. Feel winds will stay up some overnight Saturday and this may help save some areas from a freeze. With that said lows of 32-35 will be possible from roughly Columbus to Conroe to Livingston Sunday morning. Past studies suggest the second night behind the front is usually the coldest and this seems likely with this event with clear skies, light winds, and surface ridge nearly overhead. Guidance continues to come in warmer for Monday morning, but I like a colder solution given the above reasoning. Will go with a light freeze and heavy frost (given small T/Td depressions) for areas along and N of a line from Victoria to Wharton to Sugar Land to Cypress to Kingwood to Liberty. Only a few hours of near or at freezing, but with the spring planting and green up season underway some significant damage is possible. It is still possible that the surface ridge will translate across the region during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday morning allowing weak onshore flow to develop and a slight enough increase in dewpoints to keep more of the SW and W counties a tad warmer…I think this is what the models are hinting at with their warmer lows for Monday.
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srainhoutx
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Tomorrow looks to offer some storms in Central and Northeast TX as the potent cold front makes it's approach....

Image

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND ANOTHER DIGGING OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...COULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS AMPLIFIED
REGIME WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AND A STRONG DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO
DIG SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE THE
ROCKIES...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ONE OR
MORE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVES.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING A BIT WEAKER WITH THE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY. BUT...A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF RECENT DRYING...SUBSTANTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. WHILE THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THIS
MAY PROCEED A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...IT STILL
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL NOT ADVECT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING... BENEATH
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IS STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF WEAK CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT
STILL LAGGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
FRONTAL FORCING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF STORMS
PRIOR TO 20/00Z. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST SHEAR...MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN...AS SIZABLE
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ENHANCE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN AN EVOLVING NARROW SQUALL
LINE. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS CONVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL SEEMS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITHIN A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FINALLY BEGINS
TO SURGE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE ON THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. INCREASING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/18/2010
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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HPC QPF disco also suggests this late winter storm will be rather potent and will cause many problems fom wintry weather to heavy convective rains as it organizes...

DAYS 2 AND 3...

ROCKIES INTO CNTRL CONUS...
QUITE A WET AND POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ON FRI AND SAT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID TO LWR MS VLY. A POTENT SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE PLOWING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE WRN TERRAIN INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CLOSE OFF A MID TO UPPER LOW AND GRADUALLY
BECOME DETACHED FROM THE OVERALL STEERING CURRENT. THIS IS DUE
INITIALLY TO THE SPLIT NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EARLY ON FRI...
WITH THE NRN STREAM EXTENT REMAINING VERY FLAT OVER THE UPR MS VLY
AND PRETTY MUCH BEING A NON-FACTOR AS IT PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM...
EXCEPT FOR DIRECTING A VERY DECENT THERMAL BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
OTHER PROBLEM WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AND SRN STREAM BECOMING DOMINANT
IS LARGE SPREAD WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE FURTHER AND FURTHER OUT IN
TIME. INITIALLY... THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
FRI/D2 THAT HPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR MOST FACETS OF
THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING QPF. EXPECT TWO SIGNIFICANT POCKETS FOR
QPF... ONE BACK OVER CO INTO NM OR BASICALLY A COMBO OF UPSLOPE
FLOW AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE UPPER VORT AND A SECOND
AREA EXPANDING FROM IA SWWRD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SRN PLAINS OR A COMBO OF A WEAK VORT SLIDING FROM NE TO THE GRT
LAKES AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINNING TO OVERRUN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE COLD SECTOR. THEN ON SAT/D3... LARGE MODEL
SPREAD EXISTS BUT AN OVERALL TREND IS BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM... A
LARGE CLOSED LOW FORMING AND REALLY SLOWING DOWN. THUS HPC
FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF AS A BASE AND ADDED A SMALL PORTION OF THE
GFS... THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND THE 03Z SREF MEAN
SUPPORTS THE SLOWER TREND.
EXPECT A MASSIVE SURGE OF DEEP GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTERACT WITH THE LARGE BECOMING
STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A MASSIVE RAIN/CONVECTION AND
POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FROM OK/ERN TX AND SERN KS NEWRD THROUGH THE
MID TO LWR MS VLY.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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If the 12Z NAM is correct, there appears to be a good shot at some stronger storms as the cold front heads into our area...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Rather good agreement in regard to the 12Z GFS and ECMWF as well as the NAM of a rather potent closed off low and colder weather as we head toward Saturday afternoon and the remainder of the weekend…

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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srainhoutx wrote:Rather good agreement in regard to the 12Z GFS and ECMWF as well as the NAM of a rather potent closed off low and colder weather as we head toward Saturday afternoon and the remainder of the weekend…

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... 00cf72.gif
Good agreement through this weekend, but look off the Pacific NW coast. Quite a difference between what the GFS has moving ashore vs. the Euro. That may mean that the GFS is way off on next week's forecast (assuming the EC is correct).
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12z NAM at 4pm Saturday.
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12z Bufkit data shows IAH not very unstable on Saturday; NAM a bit more unstable.
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Hazardous Outlook from HGX:

"ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND
6 PM AND GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR.
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I have a feeling we could see freezing temperature into April.

Average Month To Last See 32 or Below
February

Median Month To Last See 32 or Below
February

Average Date To Last See 32 or Below
February 24

Median Date To Last See 32 or Below
February 27

Earliest Date To Last See 32 or Below
December 26, 1989 (Used -1 to represent December, since there was no 32 or below after the December 1989 Freeze.)

Latest Date To Last See 32 or Below
April 10, 1973
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NAM suggests a healthy line of storms...

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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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GFS: wrap around snow dives into east Texas early Sunday morning
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SPC: marginal threat for severe weather here Saturday

"...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

A BAND OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF FORCED ASCENT IN
VICINITY OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SRN
END OF THIS BAND WILL EXIST WITHIN A STEEPER LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL EXIST AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE
THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES."


Full forecast:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_prt.html
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Image

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX/OK...
A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CA/NV...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY LOW/MID
50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING OVER TX/OK.
NEVERTHELESS...RATHER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY FOR A BAND OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK
INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR THE RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS AFTER INITIATION. BEYOND
THAT TIME...STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A PREDOMINANTLY NON-SEVERE
SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TX.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 03/19/2010
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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12Z NAM suggests a rather strong line of storms along and ahead of the Cold Front tomorrow...doesn't look too boring wxdata... :mrgreen:

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srainhoutx
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Appears that we are going to make a run at some freezing morning lows in the Metro Area...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
CURRENT TEMP FORECAST. WILL TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT TO SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. MODELS SHOW A VERY COLD AIR
MASS ENTERING THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8. IF THESE TEMPS VERIFY...FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUN OR MON MORNING. THINK WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH AND MIXING WILL LIMIT A SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURE
DROP. 43
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Are these two freezes during Saturday night-Sunday morning and Sunday night-morning likey to be the last freezes that southeast Texas receives for this month or is another one predicted to come later on in this month and perhaps even one prior, during, or after Easter?
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How about this, southeast Texas gets an additional two cold waves for this weekend & for the initiation of the new work week, with the feasibility at getting two consecutive frosts or freezes. sigh :roll: Hey, though frosts and freezes are not good for any fresh new leaves and flowers, all of us in this weather forum need to be truly thankful that it not predicted to be a hard freeze or even a very hard freeze, 20's or 10's for that would just be utterly horrible for any trees, shrubs, and small plants, excluding evergreens, setting them back x number of days if not weeks. ;) Or, do some of you not concur with this?
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It'll be hard to get to freezing Sunday morning with a low overcast that'll probably hang around until Sunday afternoon. With the upper low over NE TX, wrap around clouds will limit lows Saturday night and Sunday highs. May see upper 30s to 40 Sunday morning and a high closer to 50 than the upper 50s on Sunday with the clouds. Interesting that the Houston AFD says wrap around clouds most of Sunday but the zone forecast says clear to partly cloudy.
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