June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[Snowman]

I hope you are right jasons I would love to see what i saw yesterday! We got 2 inches in 40 minutes!

[mckinne63]

Hurray, it is raining in Stafford. It is coming down pretty good.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
526 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

TXZ198-199-212-082315-
WALLER TX-GRIMES TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
526 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALLER...SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHWEST OF TOMBALL...OR 4
MILES SOUTH OF PINEHURST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINEHURST...MAGNOLIA...STAGECOACH AND
TODD MISSION.

[Mrs.Frosty]

This is frustrating. Cleveland must have their "Anti Rain" Shield up again. We missed out yesterday and it looks like today won't be any different. Yesterday a big batch of rain developed just west of us and then just south of us.All we got were a few sprinkles. Our house , literally, missed out on the rains by a few miles. *sigh*

[redneckweather]

All the convection seems to be moving out of our area. I missed it again. lol I don't think that stuff from Louisiana will have time to make it here before dieing off.

[Rip76]

The Louisiana stuff is building, it seems...

[srainhoutx]

It does appear the storms to our E are getting stronger. HGX just issued a Special Weather Statement for San Jacinto & Polk Counties and near cells are developing in Liberty County. The mid level low is nearing Metro Houston as well. Fingers crossed that some areas that have missed out will yet see some rain. I've had about .05 so far from this 'event'. Count me in the have not category while 10 miles N of me has had nearly 7 inches over the past 48 hours...~sigh~

[Rip76]

Has the low moved between Victoria and Houston now?

[jasons2k]

The convection to the east does seem to keep building, and the sea breeze coming out in front of it may actually help it since it's turning nighttime now. It will help clear-out some of the leftover cool/stable air.

[jasons2k]

Lots of thunder here - here it comes

[rnmm]

I hear thunder here too.

[unome]

long loop, takes a while to load - speed it up & watch the progression of storms

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/trop ... AT%2FIR%2F

[ticka1]

it is raining here in baytown mont belvieu! lots of thunder and lightning with heavy rainfall happening right now!

[jasons2k]

Most of it is missing me - just a few sprinkles here.

[txflagwaver]

Really windy here...looks like we will be getting a nice night time storm

[jasons2k]

Looking at the water vapor loop, mid-level center looks like it is swirling near the West End of Galveston, pushing offshore to the South.

[Katdaddy]

Getting strong gusting outflow winds in League City currently.

[Andrew]

Things should begin to clear out Saturday and skies should turn partly cloudy through the evening. As the Mid level low moves off to the east rain chances should be minimal. I don't see much (if anything) as the low is moving east at a decent rate now. Looking down the line models do indicate that there will be a slight chance of rain during the middle of next week as we once again see heights lower across central/East Texas as we have a front approach the area with possible small disturbances rotating around the ridge. At this time rain chances do not look as good as they were this week but it should allow for at least a chance of scattered showers. Looking into the longer range all eyes look to turn towards the tropics as models seem to be hinting at possible development. While we are dealing with the extended range for these models but the GFS and CMC have indicated that with the MJO pulse and increase moisture in the gulf and western Atlantic we could see some development around Cuba or off the coast of Florida. While this is still very far out and the models are known for spitting out "ghost storms" things are lining up for development. As of right now this is just speculation but keep an eye out for the longer range.

Next Week:

f102.gif

MJO:

spatial_olrmap_full.gif

ewp_small.gif

Long Range:

f204.gif

[mckinne63]

Had a nice downpour in Stafford early evening. I looked at the radar and looked like we were about the only ones to get some rain. Makes up for what we missed on Thursday.

[srainhoutx]

The 00z Euro/Canadian/WRF suggest that a couple of short waves will traverse the area Tuesday/Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary stalls near the Red River. The GFS is dry, but something to watch I suppose. Guidance continues to advertise the monsoonal trough will lift N from Central America in the longer range perhaps increasing deep tropical moisture near the 20th, +/- a couple of days. With a more favorable MJO pulse and chi forecasts suggesting greater lift and lowering pressures for the W Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. We will see.

HPC:

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

A FRONT STALLING OUT ACRS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A
POOL OF DEEP MSTR/PWATS ALONG IT WHICH ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND SOME AID FROM OROGRAPHICS SHOULD HELP
FOSTER SOME BKN CLUSTERS OF SHWRS/TSTMS BEGINNING LATE TUES. MAY
WELL SEE A STRONGER MCS EVOLVING OUT OF THIS TUES NIGHT FROM ERN
NM SEWD INTO W CNTRL TX WITH THE AID OF A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW
LVL JET...WHICH THE 00Z NAM...00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ALL SUPPORT.
WILL FAVOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL ACRS
THIS REGION...BUT WILL ALLOW THE AXIS TO SET UP AND PROPAGATE A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THESE MDLS PROG ATTM.