May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

Wed May 30, 2012 3:06 am

The SPC expands the Moderate Risk to include part of NE Teaxs for today. The Slight Risk has been expanded to include parts most of Central/SE Texas and points N and E for Thursday.

Wed May 30, 2012 4:26 am

The 06Z WRF/NMM continue to advertise an active squall line for areas mostly N of the I-10 Corridor extending W from near Columbus on E into near DT Houston Metro and on N and E for Thursday evening as the frontal boundary sags S and stalls along or just offshore early Friday.

For today, all eyes turn N into Central OK and the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex where a significant severe weather episode is strongly suggested to develop during the afternoon and begin to march S and E. There is a potential that a large MCS or derecho type event may unfold, but that will need to be monitored as the day unfolds. After almost 2 weeks of quiet weather, things appear to be heading toward an active 48 hours to end the month of May.

Wed May 30, 2012 8:00 am

Latest SPC Update for our neighbors to the N...there is some hint the outflow boundary from the dying MCS near Dallas may drift far enough S to fire off some activity this evening in our area (NE Zones) as the sea breeze becomes involved...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PART OF SWRN KS...WRN/CNTRL OK... AND FAR NRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SRN PLAINS...

--POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT--

...SYNOPSIS...

POLAR BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS SEWD AND PHASE WITH LOWER-LATITUDE IMPULSES EMERGING FROM
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO SUPPORT BROADER-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO OZARK PLATEAU AND SRN PLAINS BY
31/12Z. THIS UPPER-AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE EWD
DEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW FROM NWRN TX INTO
THE OZARKS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT
MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER SRN KS/NRN OK INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
WITH THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY --LIKELY AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW--
SURGING SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH DECAYING MCS OVER N-CNTRL/NERN TX EXTENDS FROM NEAR LFK NWWD
THROUGH ACT TO A SURFACE LOW N OF LBB. VAD DATA FROM FREDRICK OK
AND OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE
SHALLOW OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED
TO A SELY DIRECTION. AND WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK...INCREASED
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VALUES INCREASING INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S LATER TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A PLUME OF VERY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /I.E. 8.5-9.5 C PER KM/ WILL OVERSPREAD
WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG IN SWRN NEB TO
AS HIGH AS 3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK.

CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONGST MESOSCALE AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO SPECIFIC DETAILS
OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE
ACROSS WRN PARTS OF KS/OK BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT PROGRESSIVELY OVERSPREADS WRN/NWRN EXTENSION OF WARM
SECTOR. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES /MOST NOTABLY ACROSS WRN KS/ WITH 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAPID SUPERCELL EVOLUTION.

VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
INITIAL STORMS BEFORE ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCSS. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS ANALOGOUS TO PAST
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DERECHO EVENTS...AND A SIMILAR TYPE SCENARIO MAY
UNFOLD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS FROM PARTS OF SRN KS THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK INTO NRN
TX.

...SERN TX/LA TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING N-CNTRL/NERN TX MCS WILL
LIKE FOCUS RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELD WOULD SUPPORT THE SEWD MOTION OF TSTM CLUSTERS
WITH A RISK FOR SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING TOWARD THE
CNTRL GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 05/30/2012

Wed May 30, 2012 8:26 am

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Lots to talk about this morning as our quite pattern of late breaks down into a brief active pattern.

Morning visible images shows a large outflow boundary extending from NW LA across eastern TX westward across Houston County to north of College Station with multiple gravity waves noted moving SW across central TX. This is all a result of the large complex of storms which moved out of OK into N TX overnight. Additional activity has developed over OK into north TX this morning in a N/S band and is slowly moving SSW. Satellite is also showing well defined cloud street moving inland off the NW Gulf this morning…a sign that the air mass is very moist in the low levels and this is confirmed by widespread dewpoints in the low to mid 70’s over the region.

High Resolution models show the eastern TX outflow boundary making it well into SE TX this afternoon and it is very possible a few showers/thunderstorms may develop along this feature. Corpus soundings continues to show a monster cap in place in the mid levels and this is forecasted to be maintained today into Thursday, so expect activity today to be fairly isolated and mainly confined east of I-45 where the capping is expected to be weakest.

Thursday-Friday Morning:

Cold front over OK this morning will move southward and enter SE TX during peak heating on Thursday. Surface temperatures forecasted in the low to mid 90’s with dewpoints in the low 70’s will support extreme instability by mid afternoon across the region. SBCAPE values rise to near 4000 J/kg along with steepening mid level lapse rates all supporting deep convective development. Negative factor continues to be warm mid level air from high pressure aloft located just south/southwest of the region. Models seem to be converging on the weakening of this capping and the strong lift/convergence with the front enough to overcome any remaining capping. Large scale model rain chances are fairly low on Thursday (less than 20%) while some of the meso models are a little more bullish with activity. I am tempted to side with the wetter solution especially or areas along and north of I-10 where the capping will be weaker and we will likely see decent coverage. South of I-10 and especially around Matagorda Bay, the cap intensity will control the coverage and intensity of the storms and think the warm mid levels will win out.

Given the extreme amounts of instability likely by Thursday afternoon, any storms that develop will likely quickly go severe with very large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Warm surface temperatures will make for very gusty outflow winds and large outflow boundaries may collide with the seabreeze front later in the afternoon/early evening at some location (possibly near/just north of I-10) which could help keep activity going well into the evening hours. SPC has included much of the area in a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday and will review the threat again and better define on Thursday morning.

Weak frontal boundary should clear the coast early Friday morning ending the threat for additional rainfall. A slightly cooler and drier air mass likely the last until fall will advect into the region providing nice early summer weather (lows in the 60’s and highs in the upper 80’s to near 90). Gulf moisture begins its return by Sunday and expect a more typical summer pattern to entrench into the region next week with ridging aloft slightly weaker allowing some daily development along the seabreeze front each afternoon.

05302012 SPC day2otlk_0600.gif

Wed May 30, 2012 10:23 am

Seabreeze boundary is definitely more active than recent days, and appears to be making more progress inland. I think this combined with the outflow boundary still very evident on radar could spell some "funderstorms" for this afternoon.

Wed May 30, 2012 10:38 am

For those following the Moderate Risk today across OK...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
948 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST ALONG A NNW-SSE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. ALSO
TWEAKED DAILY MAX TEMP AND HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS. ALTERED WX GRIDS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF DMG
WINDS/LG HAIL AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT STORMS WILL
INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED AND WE STILL EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE TO
EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Wed May 30, 2012 10:57 am

HGX Update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE COASTAL
REGIONS AS SE TX IS UNDER A VERY MOIST (AT LEAST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS) AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE
MORE EASTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
SCATTERED EARLY SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM. WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH PARKED OVER THE CWA IT IS HARD TO DISCERN ANY SIGNIFICANT
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY THAT LATTER DAY CONVECTION COULD FOCUS UPON
ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING NE TEXAS CONVECTION MAY HAVE PUSHED A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A SAFE BET TO SAY
THAT THERE MAY BE A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR MID-LATE
DAY FOCUS (SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING ALONG BREEZE IN JEFFERSON
COUNTY AND CAMERON PARISH). LOCAL 12Z LCH RAOB COMING IN VERY
MOIST (1.72 IN PWAT) WITH A RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
(81 F)...MIDDLE 80S BREAKING A WEAK 8-85H CAP SO...IF THIS IS
TRULY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIR MASS OVER US...WOULD HAVE TO SAY
THAT A SOUTH/EAST CWA 20 POP IS WARRANTED FOR EARLY SHOWERS/LATE
DAY ISO THUNDER. A QUICK GLANCE LOOKS LIKE A 30-40 POPS LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A (SLOWING) WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

Wed May 30, 2012 11:06 am

I mat be completely wrong about this, but there appears to be a secondary shortwave enhancing convection in North Texas as we speak, which is diving SSE towards southeast Texas. Though, out ahead of it we're feeling some subsidence out ahead of the feature which is beginning to limit the evolution of the seabreeze convection, perhaps if this shortwave can continue its movement activity will again increase later this afternoon?

Wed May 30, 2012 11:38 am

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS INTO WRN AND CENTRAL
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC

..SRN KS INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK

COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL AND MORNING CONVECTION OVER OK INTO
TX...WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN SURFACE AND
SATELLITE DATA OVER TX. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARIES...SELY SURFACE
WINDS FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE NWD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE EXTENDING
FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF SRN NEB. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS OF WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA ENHANCED BY
STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN EDGE OF THE EML. AS CLOUDS
DIMINISH EAST OF A N/S SURFACE TROUGH FROM EXTREME ERN CO SWD INTO
WEST TX...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE REACHING
2500-3500 J/KG...WHILE GRADUALLY REDUCING THE CAP STRENGTH. THIS
PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.

DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN MODEL PREDICTIONS OF
CONVECTION...GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS AND WRN
OK...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NWRN TX. WIND PROFILES
EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM SSELY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
WESTERLY IN THE MID LEVELS...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES.
THE ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING MCS/S BY THIS
EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/SEWD...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS/S.

Wed May 30, 2012 12:19 pm

SPC expands Slight Risk for tomorrow (Thursday) further W to the Rio Grande...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY TO
SCNTRL TX...

...OH/TN VALLEY...

INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS CNTRL PLAINS SPEED MAX
DIGS TOWARD SRN MO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SFC LOW
OVER SERN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL THEN TRACK ENEWD ALONG
THE OH RIVER. BY 18Z IT APPEARS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS AND A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED WARM FRONT SHOULD ORIENT ITSELF ALONG THE OH RIVER.

LATE DAY1 MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DIGGING PLAINS SPEED MAX. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH A PROPENSITY TO SPREAD
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO EJECT.
WHILE SOME HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE NOTED WITH RECOVERING WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SRN OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH
MOISTENING/RECOVERING WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW. AS
A RESULT...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES
EAST ACROSS WRN KY/TN. WIND AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS WITH NON-SUPERCELL ACTIVITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTH TX...

SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS SFC PRESSURES BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL AND FLOW DEEPENS FROM THE NW THERE WILL BE A
PROPENSITY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED...AND SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ACROSS TX IT APPEARS
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/30/2012

Wed May 30, 2012 1:50 pm

Keeping a close eye near Alva, OK for storm development shortly...

Wed May 30, 2012 3:22 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301958Z - 302100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE AND IN NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING
CUMULUS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF CHILDRESS TX ALONG A DRYLINE
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE MID 60S F.
AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY
HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. AS THE
CAP WEAKENS ALONG THE DRYLINE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT FREDERICK OK SHOWS ABOUT 50
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THAT SAME AREA SHOW
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WAVE CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS MUCH OF SW OK AND NW TX SUGGESTING THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE
FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CAPROCK.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/30/2012

Wed May 30, 2012 3:44 pm

Code: Select all

WOUS64 KWNS 302035
   WOU2
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 322
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   340 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
   
   TORNADO WATCH 322 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   OKC057-310200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0322.120530T2040Z-120531T0200Z/
   
   OK 
   .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   HARMON               
   
   
   TXC045-075-087-101-125-129-155-179-191-197-211-263-269-275-295-
   345-357-393-433-483-310200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0322.120530T2040Z-120531T0200Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BRISCOE              CHILDRESS           COLLINGSWORTH       
   COTTLE               DICKENS             DONLEY              
   FOARD                GRAY                HALL                
   HARDEMAN             HEMPHILL            KENT                
   KING                 KNOX                LIPSCOMB            
   MOTLEY               OCHILTREE           ROBERTS             
   STONEWALL            WHEELER

Wed May 30, 2012 3:51 pm

Looks like models are indicating a line of storms around the area Friday morning/midday but independent cells Thursday into Friday look to be the big issue. The big question seems to be how the CAP breaks down. There is going to be a lot of energy available with these storms so they could go severe fast.

Wed May 30, 2012 3:53 pm

Donley county storm looks pretty impressive especially for tornado potential:

Wed May 30, 2012 5:03 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 302152Z - 302315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A DISTINCT GIANT HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 F. MEANWHILE...SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE
MAINTAINING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS...CREATING EXTREME INSTABILITY WHEN
COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT.

THE TURNING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND DESPITE MARGINAL T/TD SPREADS INITIALLY....A
TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS MAY
ALSO OCCUR BENEATH THESE SUPERCELLS.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2012

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

Wed May 30, 2012 5:18 pm

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   410 PM CST WED MAY 30 2012
   
   TORNADO WATCH 324 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   TXC049-053-059-081-083-093-095-099-133-143-151-193-207-253-267-
   281-299-307-319-327-333-353-363-399-411-417-429-441-447-451-503-
   310500-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0324.120530T2210Z-120531T0500Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BROWN                BURNET              CALLAHAN            
   COKE                 COLEMAN             COMANCHE            
   CONCHO               CORYELL             EASTLAND            
   ERATH                FISHER              HAMILTON            
   HASKELL              JONES               KIMBLE              
   LAMPASAS             LLANO               MASON               
   MCCULLOCH            MENARD              MILLS               
   NOLAN                PALO PINTO          RUNNELS             
   SAN SABA             SHACKELFORD         STEPHENS            
   TAYLOR               THROCKMORTON        TOM GREEN           
   YOUNG                
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...EWX...

Wed May 30, 2012 5:25 pm

Interesting to see all the activity in Texas where the gravity waves early in the day were so evident...

Wed May 30, 2012 5:36 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
533 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 531 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS 9 MILES WEST OF LAKE ABILENE...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BLACKWELL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME ROADS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE U.S. HIGHWAY 277.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
LAKE ABILENE BY 600 PM CDT...

Wed May 30, 2012 5:57 pm

TORNADO WARNING
TXC399-302315-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0017.120530T2244Z-120530T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
544 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL RUNNELS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 540 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HATCHEL...OR NEAR BALLINGER...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
BALLINGER BY 550 PM CDT...
BENOIT BY 610 PM CDT...

May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

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