May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

W of Portastorm's location...

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
732 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXC019-031-053-137-171-259-265-299-385-463-110200-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-120511T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDWARDS TX-GILLESPIE TX-KENDALL TX-KERR TX-LLANO TX-REAL TX-UVALDE
TX-BURNET TX-BLANCO TX-BANDERA TX-
732 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
BANDERA...BLANCO...BURNET...NORTHERN UVALDE...REAL...LLANO...KERR...
KENDALL...GILLESPIE AND EASTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES...

AT 725 PM CDT...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR MARBLE FALLS SOUTH TO NEAR FISCHER THEN SOUTHWEST
TO JUST NORTH OF BOERNE. RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL RATES OF NEAR 2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS
CONTINUED EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

FAST MOVING RISES DOWN MINOR STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL MAKE LOW WATER
BRIDGES AND CROSSINGS DANGEROUS THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS BLANCO AND
KENDALL COUNTIES. FAST MOVING WATER CAN RISE QUICKLY...STALL AUTOS
AND SWEEP THEM DOWNSTREAM. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
FLOODED ROADS...AND CROSSINGS.

[redneckweather]

This is the 4th time since Sunday that convection has drastically weakened right before entering our area. This seems to be a trend which I think will continue with this system as it pushes closer to us and then out of the area.

[srainhoutx]

New Watch includes part of SE TX...

Code: Select all

TORNADO WATCH 273 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   TXC007-013-015-021-025-027-029-047-051-055-057-089-091-123-131-
   149-163-175-177-187-209-239-247-249-255-261-273-283-285-287-297-
   311-321-331-355-391-409-453-469-477-479-481-491-493-505-
   110800-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0273.120511T0050Z-120511T0800Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ARANSAS              ATASCOSA            AUSTIN              
   BASTROP              BEE                 BELL                
   BEXAR                BROOKS              BURLESON            
   CALDWELL             CALHOUN             COLORADO            
   COMAL                DEWITT              DUVAL               
   FAYETTE              FRIO                GOLIAD              
   GONZALES             GUADALUPE           HAYS                
   JACKSON              JIM HOGG            JIM WELLS           
   KARNES               KENEDY              KLEBERG             
   LAVACA               LA SALLE            LEE                 
   LIVE OAK             MATAGORDA           MCMULLEN            
   MILAM                NUECES              REFUGIO             
   SAN PATRICIO         TRAVIS              VICTORIA            
   WASHINGTON           WEBB                WHARTON             
   WILLIAMSON           WILSON              ZAPATA   

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
802 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HAYS COUNTY...
TRAVIS COUNTY...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING
THE AUSTIN METRO AREA FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES WILL OCCUR IN ONE HOUR OR LESS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANDERSON MILL...AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...CEDAR PARK...
DRIPPING SPRINGS...GEORGETOWN...PFLUGERVILLE...ROUND ROCK...
SERENADA...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...TAYLOR...WIMBERLEY...WINDEMERE...
ANDICE...BEE CAVE...BUDA...COUPLAND...DRIFTWOOD...GEORGETOWN DAM...
HUTTO...KYLE...LAGO VISTA...LAKEWAY...LEANDER...LIBERTY HILL...
MANOR...MANSFIELD DAM...MUSTANG RIDGE...ONION CREEK AND
ROLLINGWOOD.

[srainhoutx]

Bow echo near N Austin. Also storms racing NE into S San Antonio...the upper low will continue to slowly creep ENE from the Big Bend area overnight...

[srainhoutx]

EWX reporting wind gusts to 50-60 mph with the Austin bow echo.

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/11/12 0141Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0130Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:2030Z DMSP SSMIS:2350Z
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...FOCUS OF EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS S CENTRAL TEXAS...NEXT WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS COMING ACROSS C TEXAS AND THIRD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
NORTH OF LOW INTO WESTERN TX...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PRIMARY FOCUS AREA RIGHT NOW RAPID
COOLING OF CONVECTION THAT CAME OUT OF MEXICO AND WAS FEEDING INTO
EXISTING TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS S CENTRAL TEXAS VIC OF DUVAL, LIVE
OAK AND W BEE COUNTY WITH THAT MEXICAN CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS WEBB
TRYING TO FEED IN TO GIVE AN EXCESSIVE MULTI-HOUR RAIN EVENT. WITH PWATS
POOLING IN THE AREA TO THE TUNE OF 1.75-2.0"....NOT HARD TO BE GETTING
NARROW AREA OF HOURLY RAIN RATES OF THAT MUCH WITH GENERAL RATES IN
A WIDER AREA OF 1-1.5"/HR IN THOSE COUNTIES. OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS
MORE ORIENTED NW TO SE AND PERPENDICULAR TO FLOW COMPARED WITH THE DUVAL,
LIVE OAK, W BEE COUNTY ACTIVITY THAT WAS GETTING QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING.
SOME AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY MULTI-HOUR PROBABLY NOT AS GREAT...BUT STILL
GOOD FORCING AND ACTING ON DEEP MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HVY RAIN AND AT
LEAST URBAN TYPE FLOODING POTENTIAL. TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR
W CENTRAL TEXAS AND JUST SOUTH OF NW TEXAS...GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SE TEXAS THAT WAS HELPING CONTINUE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HVY RAINS BACK IN AREAS LIKE LAMPASAS TO STEPHENS AND STILL
THE PESKY MOISTURE ADVECTION KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE GOING INTO SE NM.
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH/NE UNDERSIDE OF LOW HAS WARM
LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMP CLOUD TOPS GIVING BRIEF MODERATE TO HVY
RAINS...IE MOVING ACROSS CRANE AND UPTON COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE
URBAN TYPE FF FOR A SHORT TIME AND THEN MOVING ON TO THE EAST AND NE.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 01300430Z..MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...THREE AREAS OF CONCERN...MOST FOR FF ACROSS S CENTRAL
TEXAS VIC OF WEBB TO DUVAL TO JIM WELLS COUNTY WHERE RAIN RATES CAN MAX
OUT TO 2"...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY MULTI-HOUR AMOUNTS CAN GIVE 4-6 INCHES
OVER A 3-5HR PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR FLOODING.
OTHER CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING EAST CENTRAL TEXAS JUST NORTH AND NW OF
THIS AREA FOR HVY 1-2HR RAIN AMOUNTS BUT WITH A FEW BANDS MOVING ACROSS.
PESKY ASPECT OF MOISTURE WRAP AROUND WILL KEEP ISOLATED URBAN TYPE FF
GOING W CENTRAL TEXAS UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW...
WRAP AROUND STILL REMAINS IMPRESSIVE INTO SE NM AND WITH FF GUIDANCE
PRETTY LOW...
NOT INCONCEIVABLE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODERATE RAINS BACK IN SE
NM FOR THE PERIOD.
BUT EXPECT WITH UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.

[unome]

good news for TX drought - 72-hr QPE image from NMQ

[Portastorm]

As of 8:55 pm, worst part of storm appears to be in the northern 'burbs of Austin ... here in southwest Austin, we're getting some heavy rain but not too much lightning or gusty winds. No hail either.

[unome]

CPC's Q-MORPH Rain Rate (mm/hr) - 1-Day CONUS Loop http://cat.cira.colostate.edu/QMORPH/CO ... S_loop.htm

and latest image

[Andrew]

Water vapor still shows a pretty good system out west and more moisture filtering in. Once the ull gets closer it should allow for more moisture from the gulf to increase convection. What is concerning is the bowing that is taking place out west around San Antonio and Austin. Strong winds could be associated with that line.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-wv.html

[rnmm]

Can we expect severe storms here or just heavy rain? I am trying to determine if I should bring the pool furniture into the shed before it rains. Thanks all!!

[rnmm]

Thank you Ed...I will go put it in the shed...I would rather it be in the shed than in a place its not supposed to be that is for sure!!

[Ptarmigan]

Doppler rainfall total out of Corpus Christi.

[Ptarmigan]

Can we expect severe storms here or just heavy rain? I am trying to determine if I should bring the pool furniture into the shed before it rains. Thanks all!!

Better safe than sorry, a squall line with potential for damaging winds would seem to be on the way.

The line might be gusting out, outflow has pushed out cutting off some inflow, reflectivities are dropping, but better safe than sorry.
NAM suggests a second round tomorrow afternoon anyway.

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/GRK_loop.gif

I am not sure about the NAM. However, I would not be surprised if we got a second around tomorrow. I rarely see second round of severe weather in Houston. I wonder why.

[TexasBreeze]

I'm not so sure it will be heavy when it gets to harris co. looks to be,weakening once again. My yard is dry.

[redneckweather]

I'm not so sure it will be heavy when it gets to harris co. looks to be,weakening once again. My yard is dry.

Yep. That's a good thing as far as severe weather.

[Ptarmigan]

I am getting the impression the storms are getting stronger. The storms could be here around later on.

[relic57]

Power is currently out here in Atascocita.

[Rip76]

We're getting slammed here in the Sagemont area.

Power has been out for almost an hour now.