February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[wxman57]

Looks like the first wave of rain didn't materialize. Main storm system passes tonight/Saturday morning. The heavy rain will likely hold off until after midnight tonight.

[srainhoutx]

The main difference I see with the 12Z NAM (WRF/NMM) is the Coastal Low treks a bit 'inland' than what had been suggested. Not that these models are going to be spot on anyway...

[djmike]

I understand that this event is difficult to predict, but about what time should we start seeing these storms fire up? I was expecting a completley diff radar picture this morning than what it currently shows. Also, since we missed out on the overnight rains, does that mean our expected 3-4" of rain will be lowered. Just curious. Thanks in advance.

[wxman57]

I understand that this event is difficult to predict, but about what time should we start seeing these storms fire up? I was expecting a completley diff radar picture this morning than what it currently shows. Also, since we missed out on the overnight rains, does that mean our expected 3-4" of rain will be lowered. Just curious. Thanks in advance.

I think that on average we'll see 1-3" of rain, mostly from near midnight tonight to early Saturday afternoon. Some areas could receive over 3", perhaps 4-5 inches. Don't look for much rain until late tonight/early tomorrow.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the first wave of rain didn't materialize. Main storm system passes tonight/Saturday morning. The heavy rain will likely hold off until after midnight tonight.

Since we had no rain as forecasted, the atmosphere is less worked up as a result. I wonder if that means even heavier rain as a result.

[unome]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171555
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS NOT GOING TO PLAN THIS MORNING. LAST NIGHT`S S/WV WENT WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
850 MB MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT
SHOW ANY S/WV`S MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. OTHER THAN WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CAN`T REALLY FIND ANY OTHER LIFTING MECHANISM SO HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND DELAY THE FLOOD WATCH TO 00Z. THE 12Z
NAM12 IS SHIFTING MOST OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY. AFTER LAST NIGHTS FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LACKING. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM.

[djmike]

Wow...confidence has really dropped on our chances. I'll be very dissapointed if we only get a shower or two (>1") out of this event. Or "nothing" at the rate this is going....

[srainhoutx]

Yes. It always interesting when every model known to man suggest rain will fall in your back yard and nothing happens and you wake up to see a dry slot at the mid levels streaming in from the SW. Just goes to show as much as we think we know about the atmosphere and computer models, nature always has the upper hand and will do what it wants. We'll see if something develops later in the day...

[ticka1]

Models do not know what is going to happen - they can just suggest scenarios. But no one has invented the crystal ball for weather so models will have to be the next best thing.

How many of you here at KHOU think this event will happen or will be a bust?

[wxman57]

I'm not complaining about not having heavy rain this morning. I'm not hopeful about tonight, though. I don't see how we'll escape at least 1-2" of rain.

[TexasBreeze]

Well they issued a watch which hasn't materialized so far so it could bust. It would flood without a watch probably.

[srainhoutx]

In all fairness to HGX, the forecasters were very reluctant to issue a Flood Watch yesterday due to the unknowns. As we have seen all winter, these U/L's are a bugger to forecast 12 hours out, much less 24 hours out. Time and time again we see everyone playing 'catch up'. But I do agree with wxman57. It does look as if it will be hard to escape the overnight event. There is a very staedy stream of Pacific moisture heading across Old Mexico and the U/L is just a bit slower than some had thought. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

[srainhoutx]

Updated HWO from HGX...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-180900-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1129 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH NOON SATURDAY...

LIGHT RAIN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY. AT THIS TIME...IT IS STILL TO DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED...BUT PARTS OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO END LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE. GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH OR STRONGER WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

[srainhoutx]

Oh, and there is actually some breaks in the clouds now up here in NW Harris County.

[mckinne63]

Partly sunny in Stafford also. Sun is peaking thru the clouds.

[mckinne63]

It had better rain tonight/tomorrow morning or I am in big trouble with the husband. He cancelled the load of mulch on my say so. Which was based on y'alls say so.

[weatherguy425]

I'd start keeping an eye to y'alls south and west. Some mean looking storms are rapidly from San Antonio to Corpus. All of this activity appears to be moving to the North and East, and these peaks of sun may only add fuel to the fire.

[djjordan]

I'd start keeping an eye to y'alls south and west. Some mean looking storms are rapidly from San Antonio to Corpus. All of this activity appears to be moving to the North and East, and these peaks of sun may only add fuel to the fire.

I was just going to say something about that. With the sun peaking through and storms forming, it's just a matter of time before rain begins and then intensifies overnight. I think we are in for a wild night of weather.

[srainhoutx]

I'd start keeping an eye to y'alls south and west. Some mean looking storms are rapidly from San Antonio to Corpus. All of this activity appears to be moving to the North and East, and these peaks of sun may only add fuel to the fire.

I was just going to say something about that. With the sun peaking through and storms forming, it's just a matter of time before rain begins and then intensifies overnight. I think we are in for a wild night of weather.

Yes. Convection has started firing and the boundary is now lifting N. Radar suggests the Coastal Low is developing just ENE of Brownsville. Lackland AFB is reporting heavy rain. We'll need to watch that boundary as a focal point for the heavy training storms as the afternoon/evening wears on.

[Katdaddy]

I am also watching the storms fire over S TX with interest. I must say I am amped up about this weather event.