February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[wxman57]

Rain with surface temps in the 40s or 50s will feel like Winter...

And I think you'd enjoy that about as much as I would. I made a graphic of my rainfall by month for last year through today. 9.03" in January and 5.47" so far this month, making a total of 14.5" for the year. Quite a bit more than last Jan/Feb. My yard really can't take any more rain.

[redneckweather]

Gotta give it to ya srain...you are one hopeful son of a gun, that's for sure.

[srainhoutx]

Gotta give it to ya srain...you are one hopeful son of a gun, that's for sure.

Hopeful...nah. I hate cold weather... There is a reason why I lived in the Keys for 5 years and only travel W to ski on rare occasions.

[srainhoutx]

Ed, the 12Z GFS is a bit more happy than the NAM...

[srainhoutx]

The HPC has tasked an additional G-IV mission for 02/16/12-12Z for the late week storm system, for those that are interested...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST TUE 14 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 19WSC TRACK56
C. 15/1845Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 16/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49
A. P-55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 16/1200Z
B. NOAA9 20WSC TRACK55
C. 16/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 16/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Srain, when it says the times in there, does that mean the additional data that they collected goes into the model at that time, or is it the next major run? Like if it says 16 drops at 0z, then is that data in the 0z model or the 12z?

[srainhoutx]

Srain, when it says the times in there, does that mean the additional data that they collected goes into the model at that time, or is it the next major run? Like if it says 16 drops at 0z, then is that data in the 0z model or the 12z?

Actually, the data does get in fairly quickly. As an example, here is the yesterday tasking. The first data we will actually see in guidance will be with the 00Z output this evening...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST MON 13 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 18WSC TRACK 56
C. 14/1845Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 15/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/1200Z
B. NOAA9 19WSC TRACK56
C. 15/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 15/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/0000Z
B. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/1200Z

[srainhoutx]

Just seeing text, no maps and fun things like forecast skew-Ts yet, but Euro has some rain before, and a lot of rain after, 18Z tomorrow when it is 70ºF with a 67ºF dewpoint at Noon local tomorrow. Over 3/4" at IAH. More drought busting...

Gotta see the soundings, but with a 91% 850 mb RH, maybe the cap is weak to non-existent and surface based storms are possible...


Edit-

SPC SWODY2 update has potential happiness now for all the HGX CWA...

Yes Sir. All of SE TX is in the Slight Risk...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN/CNTRL
GULF STATES...

...WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES...

SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL BE FORCED EAST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DIGGING
SHORTWAVE OVER CA. THIS LEAD FEATURE WILL THEN EJECT INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY 16/00Z ENSURING A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONTAL
ZONE. OF PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING THAT CAN
OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST DATA SUGGESTS MODIFIED GOM AIRMASS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
NWRN GULF WITHIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES INTO EAST TX/LA
WHERE SFC DEW POINTS COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE MID 60S. WHILE
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE INADEQUATE IN GENERATING SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD GENERATE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN OK INTO SWRN MO/AR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED NEAR 850MB.
HOWEVER...WITH TIME SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN FORCING NEAR-SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY 18Z
FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST. SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY FAVOR SEVERE TSTMS AS SFC-6KM VALUES ARE WELL WITHIN
TOLERANCE FOR MAINTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THAT WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A LOT OF THE EARLY
INITIATION...THERE MAY BE A PROPENSITY FOR A WEAK MCS-TYPE CLUSTER
EVOLVING ALONG NRN FRINGE OF RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE.

MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THE NRN GULF STATES AND
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. WHILE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE JUST NORTH OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS AND BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN NATURE NORTH OF I-20. GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
STATES...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO SPREAD INTO
NRN AL. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS
REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY
WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE
COMMON WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED WITHIN NEAR-SFC ENVIRONMENT...SWD INTO
THE WARM SECTOR.

..DARROW.. 02/14/2012

[Ptarmigan]

Valentine's Day Weather
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_ ... valentines

The biggest snow and freezes in Houston occurred in Valentine's Day. The 1895 snow and 1899 freeze happened on Valentine's Day.

[txflagwaver]

Wow...12 hours with no posts...must be really slow in the weather dept.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX...LA AND SWRN/SRN MS...

...SYNOPSIS...

DOWNSTREAM FROM A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSING SWD INTO THE LOWER CO
VALLEY...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL WEAKEN/DE-AMPLIFY WHILE LIFTING NEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ATTENDED BY A 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND A CORRIDOR OF MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WITH
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE OVER FAR NERN NM WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
EWD ACROSS OK TODAY BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO IND BY 16/12Z IN
TANDEM WITH THE WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ANALYZED OVER WRN TX WILL ACCORDINGLY ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THU MORNING. A COUPLE OF
WARM FRONTS WERE EVIDENT AS OF 12Z...ONE EXTENDING FROM THE
INTERSECTION WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT OVER NWRN TX AND THEN ARCING
SEWD THROUGH SERN TX INTO THE SHELF WATERS OF THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OTHER --DELINEATING MORE OF AN MT AIR MASS FROM THAT OF
CP IN ORIGIN-- EXTENDED FROM DEEP S TX ENEWD ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE
TX COAST. EXPECT BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NWD IN
ADVANCE OF EWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIONS OCCURRING ALONG A BROAD 30-40 KT LLJ
AXIS FROM CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU HAVE GIVEN RISE TO
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS MORNING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 500
J/KG. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...LATEST CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORE ROBUST SURFACE-BASED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT INVOF SRN-MOST WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND MIDDLE TX COAST.

12Z OBSERVED BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E.
100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13.5-15.5 G PER KG/ BENEATH AN EML
CHARACTERIZED BY A CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 850 MB AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
CIRRUS SHIELD WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LIKELY BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CAP REMOVAL AND
SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST LOW-
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN LA/SWRN MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS.

...N CNTRL OK INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAKENING
MIDLEVEL SYSTEM. HERE...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALIGN
WITH 500-MB TEMPERATURES AOB -20C...YIELDING A THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD/COHEN.. 02/15/2012

[redneckweather]

UH OH.....I'm hearing some chatter of some serious cold air coming down later on in the month.

[srainhoutx]

UH OH.....I'm hearing some chatter of some serious cold air coming down later on in the month.

My Mom always told me 'believe nothing you hear and half what you see'... Winter is over. Didn't you hear?...

[wxman57]

UH OH.....I'm hearing some chatter of some serious cold air coming down later on in the month.

I'm looking at the last few runs of the Euro (hemispheric surface temperature anomaly) and I see it does, indeed, indicate air cooling in western and NW Canada around day 10. The airmass goes from 10-20F above normal to only 5-10F below normal on the last panel, though. Nothing extreme.

GFS indicates a bit of cold air building in NW Canada, too, around the same time (10 days out). It's a bit colder than the Euro at 10-20F below normal. There are indications of another moderate cold front pushing across the U.S. the last week of February. Again, nothing extreme. Perhaps a freeze down to Houston around the 27th-28th to close out the winter (lower 30s). However, the GFS has consistently been too cold in the long range this season, so that light freeze may turn out to be a mid 30s night.

I still need 1 day with a high of 81F to win the February forecast contest and take the lead.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM was not impressed with the storm chances this afternoon. The HRRR on the other hand suggests areas N and E of Harris County may see some strong storms. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

lol...

[srainhoutx]

lol...

What model is that?

WRF/NMM...hours 72-84...

[Portastorm]

lol...

What model is that?

WRF/NMM...hours 72-84...

Argh, you beat me to it. Yes, the 12z NAM suggests "wintry mischief" for areas like San Angelo to Waco and up to the DFW Metroplex.

[srainhoutx]

We have a boundary draped across the region to our N and W. We'll need to monitor this area for training storms as the morning progresses.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks like Central and Northern Montgomery County could see quite a bit of rain here.... I'm down!