February: Calm Weather To End The Month
Sleeting here, now, in southern Walker County. Just West of I-45.
Sleeting in Baytown 
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wxman57
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With increasing flow off the Gulf overnight, temps should start rising in the next 3-4 hrs, not falling. The low tomorrow will be whatever the temp is at midnight, most likely. So no chance of anything freezing on the surface.
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sleetstorm
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I also confirm sleet here in Baytown. I did not think it was sleet, at first. But, then I watched very carefully and sure enough I saw tiny spheres of ice striking and bouncing off of my parent's Yukon truck.
It's mostly liquid drizzle here now, with an occasional melting sleet pellet. It was fun while it lasted.
It was sleet. Moderate at the onset then off and on light. Sleeted the whole way home from I-45 to I-10 on the Beltway then changed to rain. Onset of reports from Victoria County this morning should have suggested this was possible, but I thought the column would modify more today...still a decent amount of low level dry air even this evening, but WAA should kick this out shortly. Looking nasty tomorrow along and south of that warm front...helicities are crazy, and strong forcing may compensate for a general lack of instability....wxman57 wrote:Nothing in SW Houston. Jeff, are you sure you're seeing sleet and not graupel? Sounding has all precip forming in sub-freezing air above 700mb, which should be snow. There isn't any above-freezing followed by another sub-freezing layer (which would produce sleet) indicated. See the sounding below.jeff wrote:Have been getting IP for the last 15 minutes in Spring...FM 1960 at Hardy Toll Rd
Could super-cooled water above 12,000 ft be going directly to ice vs. snow crystals to produce sleet? Or are we seeing graupel, which is partly melted and re-frozen snowflakes? Graupel is round like sleet but much whiter and softer (generally).
This is what graupel looks like:
http://images.bimedia.net/images/101229 ... lg_011.jpg
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TexasBreeze
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I think the sleet event is about over. It's mainly rain now with a couple pellets remaining.
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Belmer wrote:I think wxman57 got his low correct. If I remember correctly, he forecasted 29? Well Houston came in at 28 this morning.
As for here in San Marcos, very light flurries early this morning. Now, 41 degrees and cloudy. Would have liked to see more precip, but oh well. Looks like the stuff to the west will miss us as it moves NE.
Are you a Texas-State grad/student. I myself (although I worry about the dilution of high school talent) welcome Texas State and Texas-San Antonio to bowl subdivision football.
I will try to see their first game this season.
Hello Ed Mahmoud,
Yes, I am a Texas State student here in San Marcos, and very much look forward to the bowl subdivision next year! Stadium has been getting worked on since last August. Going to be huge when it's all done!
Blake
Boomer Sooner
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Dang, this forum has been busy today. Just thought I would give my experience of what I have gone through today...
Right after I posted my post earlier this afternoon, my friend and I were desperately wanting to see some actual snow since we didn't get any here in the San Marcos area, but yet it was so close to us. So at 3:20pm we left here in San Marcos, drove up I-35N till we got to Waco. From that distance there was a few sleet pellets with some flurries, but nothing to get overly excited about. Though, I was happy to see something wintry. Got about 15 minutes from Comanche, TX which is about 45 minutes SE of Abilene, TX. Keep in mind, I have never drove in snow before, so this was a nervousing experience and probably a slightly dumb one, but I used caution while driving. It was snowing pretty good, it was accumulating on the roads very, very quickly! Didn't last long, as it quickly stopped. Once we arrived in the actual city of Comanche, my friends and I all agreed we wouldn't go any further north. That there was a big band of snow heading from the south, and that we would get in on that.
So we stopped somewhere to eat where some big flakes came down for a good 10 minutes. Cars covered in snow, along with grass, but roads were fine. I was happy, because I saw my snow I've been wanting to see, so it was now time to make the drive back to San Marcos. Little did I know, that was going to be the worst part.
Left Comanche around 7:15, started heading south, and by this time it was getting dark and It was snowing so unbelievably hard, I could not see how to drive and couldn't see anything in front of me. I must have gotten in a real heavy band because snow was accumulating on roads and had to drive very slow as temps were 29 degrees. But for a first time driver in snow, I say I did fairly well and made it back okay. I forgot how pretty snow looked like, especially at night when everything is just white on the fields and houses. It will be interesting what the final totals are in West Texas as they weren't expecting to see as much as I believe some actually saw.
Sorry, wish I could have thrown some y'alls way, but I didn't even get some where I wanted to, so instead of the snow coming to me, I had to go to it! Lol.
As I'm reading though, glad most of the area in Houston saw some sleet, so this marks the, 3rd or 4th year to see wintry weather in Houston? Hope this shuts Tim Heller up as he was absolutely 101% positive that Houston would just see rain. He can be too cocky sometimes and thinks he knows the future. Very well, he could be right, but as a meteorologist, he should know that Mother Nature always likes to change the forecast sometimes, especially in Houston!
Anyway, models still looking good for the storm in about 2 weeks from now? Haha, still far away off, but this winter stuff has really got me in the winter mood!
Right after I posted my post earlier this afternoon, my friend and I were desperately wanting to see some actual snow since we didn't get any here in the San Marcos area, but yet it was so close to us. So at 3:20pm we left here in San Marcos, drove up I-35N till we got to Waco. From that distance there was a few sleet pellets with some flurries, but nothing to get overly excited about. Though, I was happy to see something wintry. Got about 15 minutes from Comanche, TX which is about 45 minutes SE of Abilene, TX. Keep in mind, I have never drove in snow before, so this was a nervousing experience and probably a slightly dumb one, but I used caution while driving. It was snowing pretty good, it was accumulating on the roads very, very quickly! Didn't last long, as it quickly stopped. Once we arrived in the actual city of Comanche, my friends and I all agreed we wouldn't go any further north. That there was a big band of snow heading from the south, and that we would get in on that.
So we stopped somewhere to eat where some big flakes came down for a good 10 minutes. Cars covered in snow, along with grass, but roads were fine. I was happy, because I saw my snow I've been wanting to see, so it was now time to make the drive back to San Marcos. Little did I know, that was going to be the worst part.
Left Comanche around 7:15, started heading south, and by this time it was getting dark and It was snowing so unbelievably hard, I could not see how to drive and couldn't see anything in front of me. I must have gotten in a real heavy band because snow was accumulating on roads and had to drive very slow as temps were 29 degrees. But for a first time driver in snow, I say I did fairly well and made it back okay. I forgot how pretty snow looked like, especially at night when everything is just white on the fields and houses. It will be interesting what the final totals are in West Texas as they weren't expecting to see as much as I believe some actually saw.
Sorry, wish I could have thrown some y'alls way, but I didn't even get some where I wanted to, so instead of the snow coming to me, I had to go to it! Lol.
As I'm reading though, glad most of the area in Houston saw some sleet, so this marks the, 3rd or 4th year to see wintry weather in Houston? Hope this shuts Tim Heller up as he was absolutely 101% positive that Houston would just see rain. He can be too cocky sometimes and thinks he knows the future. Very well, he could be right, but as a meteorologist, he should know that Mother Nature always likes to change the forecast sometimes, especially in Houston!
Anyway, models still looking good for the storm in about 2 weeks from now? Haha, still far away off, but this winter stuff has really got me in the winter mood!
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
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srainhoutx
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Active day ahead across the area as the upper trough near Austin heads E and a possible surface low develops near Matagorda Bay. A warm front may move N creating a large spread in temps across the region. Areas along and S of I-10 will need to be monitored for severe storms and a possible tornado or two as the morning progresses. An active weather pattern is ahead for the week as another trough with showers/storms moves across the region on Wednesday. By Thursday, a potent Upper Low will be developing to our W near CA/AZ and strong front heads S into the Plains on Friday setting the stage for another potential wintry mischief event late Friday/early Saturday for West/Central Texas and possibly the northern areas of SE Texas as well. Winter Storm Recon has been tasked for the late week system, so expect further 'fine tuning' as the week progresses.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Not much in the way of instabilty to work with, but forecast helicity values are through the roof. As we've seen this winter, doesn't take much to spin up weak meso's. RUC analysis indicates dwpoints near 60 along the middle Texas coast. Models indicate these dewpoints advecting northward and approaching the I-10 corridor later this afternoon. Definitely something to keep an eye on this afternoon...oherwise widespread rains wil spread across the entire foreast area through the morning and afternoon.
'There's a spirit can ne'er be told...'
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
A series of storm systems will affect the area over the next 5-7 days…the first today!
After a bout of winter weather yesterday across much of the state including sleet locally, warm air advection overnight has greatly warmed the low level air column producing only rainfall. Strong storm system ejecting into the plains this morning will drive strong forcing/lift across the area today. The result will be widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Warm front lies across the NW Gulf this morning with offshore buoys and platforms showing dewpoints in the lower 60’s east of CRP and south of Palacios. In fact dewpoints range from 57 at Palacios to 34 at Cleveland, so there is a strong moisture gradient across the region. Strong forcing aloft will come to bear across the area later this morning which helps to create a frontal wave on the warm front over the NW Gulf. This will keep low level flow backed to the E or ESE greatly increasing low level shear profiles near and south of this boundary. Current indications is that the warm front may move inland as far as I-10 by early afternoon. Have seen before where rain north of the boundary helps delay its northward movement and keeps the near surface cold layer in tact longer. Tough call on how far inland the boundary will get, but areas near/south of the warm front will have a severe threat with low level helicity values of 500-900 m^2/s^2 which is very impressive wind shear. Overall lack of instability (CAPE less than 500 J/kg) would tend to suggest a low severe threat, but surface forcing may compensate for the lack of instability allowing updrafts to realize the low level turning. SPC has not outlooked any of our counties, but think the coastal counties and possibly the US 59 corridor counties could be at a risk for tornadoes from late morning through mid afternoon.
Following the Texas Tech meso model would suggest thunderstorms will erupt by late morning from Victoria to Columbus and push ENE across the region. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.0 inch is likely today, fast storm motions of 20-25mph should limit overall storm totals, but setups like this one can produce training storms…so will need to keep an eye on those area for some higher totals (over 2.0 inches).
System will exit quickly to the east tonight, but the break will be short as the trough out west reloads and send the next storm system across TX on Wednesday. Warm front will swing northward on Tuesday with deep moisture returning to the area. Strong forcing and a Pacific cold front will arrive on Wednesday afternoon/evening and this combined with moisture levels approaching the 99th percentile (PWS of 1.5-1.7 inches) and better instability (CAPE of 1000 J/kg) appears to support a better threat of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. Best forcing appears to be just NE of our area over northern Louisiana and NE TX and this is where the best severe weather potential may be.
Wednesday system is into Louisiana by early Thursday and then the next system in the series drops into the SW US and ejects eastward this weekend. This final system appears to dig further south keeping much of the state in the cold air mass behind the Thursday morning front. For now will go with increasing clouds Friday with light rainfall developing from SW to NE Friday night into Saturday. If the system digs even more to the south, then much of the rainfall could remain offshore and along the coast.
A series of storm systems will affect the area over the next 5-7 days…the first today!
After a bout of winter weather yesterday across much of the state including sleet locally, warm air advection overnight has greatly warmed the low level air column producing only rainfall. Strong storm system ejecting into the plains this morning will drive strong forcing/lift across the area today. The result will be widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Warm front lies across the NW Gulf this morning with offshore buoys and platforms showing dewpoints in the lower 60’s east of CRP and south of Palacios. In fact dewpoints range from 57 at Palacios to 34 at Cleveland, so there is a strong moisture gradient across the region. Strong forcing aloft will come to bear across the area later this morning which helps to create a frontal wave on the warm front over the NW Gulf. This will keep low level flow backed to the E or ESE greatly increasing low level shear profiles near and south of this boundary. Current indications is that the warm front may move inland as far as I-10 by early afternoon. Have seen before where rain north of the boundary helps delay its northward movement and keeps the near surface cold layer in tact longer. Tough call on how far inland the boundary will get, but areas near/south of the warm front will have a severe threat with low level helicity values of 500-900 m^2/s^2 which is very impressive wind shear. Overall lack of instability (CAPE less than 500 J/kg) would tend to suggest a low severe threat, but surface forcing may compensate for the lack of instability allowing updrafts to realize the low level turning. SPC has not outlooked any of our counties, but think the coastal counties and possibly the US 59 corridor counties could be at a risk for tornadoes from late morning through mid afternoon.
Following the Texas Tech meso model would suggest thunderstorms will erupt by late morning from Victoria to Columbus and push ENE across the region. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.0 inch is likely today, fast storm motions of 20-25mph should limit overall storm totals, but setups like this one can produce training storms…so will need to keep an eye on those area for some higher totals (over 2.0 inches).
System will exit quickly to the east tonight, but the break will be short as the trough out west reloads and send the next storm system across TX on Wednesday. Warm front will swing northward on Tuesday with deep moisture returning to the area. Strong forcing and a Pacific cold front will arrive on Wednesday afternoon/evening and this combined with moisture levels approaching the 99th percentile (PWS of 1.5-1.7 inches) and better instability (CAPE of 1000 J/kg) appears to support a better threat of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. Best forcing appears to be just NE of our area over northern Louisiana and NE TX and this is where the best severe weather potential may be.
Wednesday system is into Louisiana by early Thursday and then the next system in the series drops into the SW US and ejects eastward this weekend. This final system appears to dig further south keeping much of the state in the cold air mass behind the Thursday morning front. For now will go with increasing clouds Friday with light rainfall developing from SW to NE Friday night into Saturday. If the system digs even more to the south, then much of the rainfall could remain offshore and along the coast.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z HRRR does try to build up some storms during the mid day/early afternoon hours across the southern areas of Houston...
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MontgomeryCoWx
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You gotta have a bust every once in a while... this storm is a bust.
Here's to 2 plus inches of rain on Wednesday and this weekend.
Here's to 2 plus inches of rain on Wednesday and this weekend.
Team #NeverSummer
That's what I'm saying Montgomery! This is supposed to be our 1-2" of rain today and possibly severe? Is it supposed to fire up more sometime today? If not, than, yes, I consider this one a bust aswell..MontgomeryCoWx wrote:You gotta have a bust every once in a while... this storm is a bust.
Here's to 2 plus inches of rain on Wednesday and this weekend.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
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redneckweather
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djmike wrote:
That's what I'm saying Montgomery! This is supposed to be our 1-2" of rain today and possibly severe? Is it supposed to fire up more sometime today? If not, than, yes, I consider this one a bust aswell..
Why would you personally try to call it a BUST when you don't even know what the hell is going on? LOL!!!
Seriously, I'm hearing from family members and friends that they are sick of this cloudy/rainy/cool/ gloomy weather and I tell them they are freakin lit or something. I reference last summer and that usually shuts them up. I will take every drop we can get.
That's what I'm saying Montgomery! This is supposed to be our 1-2" of rain today and possibly severe? Is it supposed to fire up more sometime today? If not, than, yes, I consider this one a bust aswell..
Why would you personally try to call it a BUST when you don't even know what the hell is going on? LOL!!!
Seriously, I'm hearing from family members and friends that they are sick of this cloudy/rainy/cool/ gloomy weather and I tell them they are freakin lit or something. I reference last summer and that usually shuts them up. I will take every drop we can get.
Last edited by redneckweather on Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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redneckweather
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srain wrote:
Low will be developing to our W near CA/AZ and strong front heads S into the Plains on Friday setting the stage for another potential wintry mischief event late Friday/early Saturday for West/Central Texas and possibly the northern areas of SE Texas as well.
I would love to hear more about this since I got an open weekend and need a good road trip! Will it be worth it?
Low will be developing to our W near CA/AZ and strong front heads S into the Plains on Friday setting the stage for another potential wintry mischief event late Friday/early Saturday for West/Central Texas and possibly the northern areas of SE Texas as well.
I would love to hear more about this since I got an open weekend and need a good road trip! Will it be worth it?
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tireman4
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Well HGX still says things are on track......
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT`S IN GOOD SHAPE...AND DO NOT PLAN ON
MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. RISING DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
FOUND IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA...AND THESE VALUES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN
COMBINATION WITH A WARM FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND COULD STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SERVE THUNDERSTORMS. 42
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT`S IN GOOD SHAPE...AND DO NOT PLAN ON
MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. RISING DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
FOUND IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA...AND THESE VALUES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN
COMBINATION WITH A WARM FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND COULD STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SERVE THUNDERSTORMS. 42
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Not calling it a bust yet. At least we got the rain.
"On track" per the 7:20 revision to downplay it. Not on track per yesterday/overnight discussions and thinking.tireman4 wrote:Well HGX still says things are on track......