February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

I've been rather quiet concerning the medium/long range guidance of late, so here is are some thoughts. The models haven't been able to get things right beyond 36+ hours of late as many have noticed. This often happens when the entire NH pattern is changing. We have seen that guidance flip flop daily and from run to run. What is interesting is the MJO is progressing into phase 7 this weekend and forecast to be in phase 8 next week. Also, we are seeing the beginnings of a West Coast Ridge (+PNA) developing and it appears very stout extending into Siberia across the Polar Regions. Europe was forecast to be warm this week and they are in fact experiencing bone chilling cold. Some may have seen the record snows in Japan as well. It does appear we have a very active Pacific jet with embedded Sub Tropical activity extending E of the dateline in the days ahead. This tends to strengthen or increase the WC Ridge and provide for a split pattern with the Polar jet making a bit of an intrusion into the eastern half of North America. The ensembles are 'sniffing' a very strong Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay with lobes of low pressure rotating around that vortex. The pattern all winter thus far has had the vortex and extremely cold air in Alaska. That pattern is changing and will be displaced. There are strong indications that a potent storm system in the upper levels will under cut the WC Ridge next week as a deep trough develops over the eastern 1/2-2/3 of the CONUS. We'll see how it all plays out, but it is interesting to note after a duration of rather mild and wet to stormy, we may well be about to 'pay the piper', so to speak. Oh, and Winter RECON continues to be tasked across the noisy Pacific...


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EST WED 01 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. P37/ DROP 9 (39.8N 140.0W)/ 03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 12WSC TRACK37
C. 02/1900Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 03/0600Z


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 AM EST THU 02 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. P37/ DROP 9 (39.8N 140.0W)/ 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 13WSC TRACK37
C. 03/1900Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 04/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'd rather pay the piper for a warmer than normal Winter with warmer than normal shelf waters, meaning less low clouds in the HOU metro, and somewhat higher dewpoints, as warmer Gulf water means happier dewpoints, and a cap made of alunimum foil, instead of high tensile steel.


I want to pay the piper with low clouds that burn off by 9 or 10 am, full sunshine in the early afternoon, and Steve shrinking and attaching visible satellite images showing agitated cu developing in the area by mid afternoon. I want to be able to shrink and attach forecast soundings from the NAM or rapid refresh showing several thousands Joules/Kg of available energy, a barely noticeable cap at 850 mb, and 40 knots or more of deep layer shear. TTs of 55.
Did I mention my car is parked on an interior floor, but I can see rooftop Galleria parking from my window.


But that is just me.

I want every winter to be Winter 1983 or 1895 style. That's just me!

[BiggieSmalls]

I know we've been spoiled because of the last few years.....but Dallas haven't even had a day where the high temp stayed in the 30s...at least not that I remember. In a normal winter, you get at least an event or two where high's stay in the 30s, don't you?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yes, even Houston has a day or two with highs in the 30s during a normal winter.

Dallas for sure does. Hell, during a normal winter in Dallas, you have a day or few of highs in the 20s.

[Belmer]

I see what you're saying Srain, however, if cold air was to start building up north and did make the plunge down here, Alaska sure isn't picking up on it. Not even in the medium range. Fairbanks, Alaska for example has seen highs in the -20s for roughly a month. Lows dipping to about -30 to -40 degrees below zero. Starting yesterday, they have been warming up to about -10 below zero and is getting warmer. For the next 10 days in Fairbanks, there are only two more days left with highs below zero, which is tomorrow and Saturday (-3 Friday and -7 Saturday). After Saturday, highs climb quiet considerably from -7 on Saturday to 14 degrees on Sunday and staying in the teens all week long next week into next weekend. Even lows will be between -8 to -1 degrees, with three days next week not getting below zero.

Now, like you said, it's been hard to get a forecast correct past 36+ hours, but if Alaska isn't even picking up on this with cold air building once again, I just don't see anything happening in the long range right now. Though, I guess we'll see. Who knows? Alaska might change their forecast tomorrow be back into the -20s all next week for highs. We'll see....

[Ptarmigan]

Warm winter has its down side.

Warm Winter Could Cause Critter Problems
http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2012/02/ ... -problems/

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z long range HRRR is sniffing a healthy meso across The Austin/San Antonio area. We'll see if this plays out...

[niner21]

This weather SUX!!! You can go outside and smell the freaking mold. Look, it can rain but then it needs to get the heck out and dry up!! My job sites are trashed with mud.

Okay, now I am seeing 50% on Sunday and 20% on Sunday night?? Will I have a mud-bowl superbowl party?

[jasons2k]

I want every winter to be Winter 1983 or 1895 style. That's just me!

Then move to Montana and keep the cold bottled-up there with you hehe

Seriously, cold like '83 or 1899 would be devastating for ranchers and gardeners. Homeowners too. We're just not equipped to handle that kind of cold down here. Plumbers and HGC might do a good business in the spring but I prefer not to see a bunch of dead Washingtonia stumps all over town... but that's just me!

[Ptarmigan]

When is the last time we had winter that was this uneventful?

I wouldn't call beneficial rains after months of little to none, flooding, severe weather with tornadoes uneventful, but perhaps that's just me.

Severe weather events like flooding and tornadoes in winter is rare. That is more of spring weather. I call that an eventful winter. I remember January 1989 had flooding from heavy rain. That following spring started cold in the 20s in March and than a stormy April and May. Flooding occurred in May 1989.

[sleetstorm]

Southeast Texas did back in the 80's, jason & we are still alive and well as well as the plants that live in this region of the country. I myself could go for several nights in the twenties or even the teens.

[Katdaddy]

A wet and possible stormy weekend on the way. We need the rain.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-041300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
427 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A FEW STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG...SOME DENSE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS...IS POSSIBLE BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SATURDAY. FOG...SOME DENSE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS...IS POSSIBLE EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ON
THROUGH. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND ON SATURDAY.

[Katdaddy]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC457-031300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0014.120203T1155Z-120203T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
555 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WOODVILLE...WARREN...FRED...

* UNTIL 700 AM CST

* AT 555 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...9 MILES WEST OF WARREN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WARREN BY 615 AM CST...
WOODVILLE BY 640 AM CST...
FRED BY 650 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEAST LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST

* AT 600 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WERE LOCATED IN THE WARNED AREA. RADAR INDICATED AS MUCH AS 4 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD OCCUR WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR LOCATIONS
FROM THE ROMAYOR AREA TO THE SEGNO AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST SAN JACINTO...EXTREME NORTHEAST LIBERTY
COUNTY...AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF AND
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND ROMAYOR AND SEGNO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...CENTRAL-SWRN LA...EXTREME SWRN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031235Z - 031430Z

MRGL/SPORADIC SVR THREAT IS EVIDENT OVER DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONAL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. 13Z
DAY-1 OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY WILL REFLECT SVR PROBABILITIES EXTENDED
SEWD INTO AREA...BOTH FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY AND FOR LATE-PERIOD
POTENTIAL. RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MOST INTENSE CORES...GIVEN EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESSING ON STORM
SCALE AND HIGH PW IN INFLOW ENVIRONMENT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE...ITS BAROCLINICITY REINFORCED
BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO ITS N...FROM NEAR MSY-BTR-ACP-JAS.
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT NWD. FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES DIFFUSE
FARTHER NW OVER TX WHERE BROAD WAA PLUME AND OTHER SYNOPTIC-SCALE
PROCESSES OF ROCKIES CYCLONE ARE MORE DOMINANT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG AND N OF SE TX/LA FRONTAL SEGMENT ARE FCST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
GENERALLY NEWD TO ENEWD IN REGIME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT
INITIALLY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 12Z LCH RAOB AND MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG NEAR I-10
TO LESS THAN 250 J/KG ALONG AND JUST N OF FRONT..BUT WITH SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. INSOLATION SHOULD BOOST THESE VALUES BY
25-50% BY LATE MORNING...HELPING TO REMOVE REMAINING CINH.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHEAR...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR TRANSIENT
CIRCULATIONS EITHER WITH SMALLER/DISCRETE CELLS OR BOWING CLUSTERS.
OBSERVED RAOB/VWP DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 100-200 J/KG OF
0-1 KM AGL SRH...BUT ONLY 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. MAIN
CONTRIBUTOR TO DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE STORM-SCALE
PRECIP LOADING.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2012


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

The SPC expands the Slight Risk area to include part of SE and Central Texas...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS INTO
THE LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPR LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SHOULD
INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AND EARLY SAT AS SPEED MAXIMA NOW IN THE SRN
AND WRN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM REDEVELOP E/NE INTO THE CNTRL HI
PLNS. THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER N CNTRL KS BY 12Z SAT...S OF
CLOSED HIGH OVER AB/SK.

AT THE SFC...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTM OVER WRN PORTIONS
OF THE SRN PLNS SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CENTER
CONSOLIDATING ON THE KS-OK BORDER S OF WICHITA BY EARLY EVE. THE
LOW SHOULD TRACK NE TO NEAR TOPEKA BY 12Z SAT AS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACCELERATES SE AND OVERTAKES LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER OK AND
TX. FARTHER S AND E...SHALLOW/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
GENERALLY SE FROM THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY N/NE
ACROSS ERN OK...SRN AR...AND CNTRL/NRN LA TODAY...AND INTO ERN AR/MS
EARLY SAT.

LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N/NE FROM CNTRL/E TX AND LA
INTO PARTS OF OK...AR...AND MS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
WIND PROFILES FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN
A RATHER BROAD AREA THAT WILL BE SUBJECT TO AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TNGT.

...SRN PLNS INTO ARKLATEX/LWR MS VLY...
WHILE A FAIRLY LARGE PART OF THE S CNTRL U.S. WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT WILL
NOT BE VERY WELL FOCUSED. THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO THE FACT THAT THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOUR
CORNERS UPR LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO KS...AWAY FROM THE LARGE SWATH OF
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND THE
LWR MS VLY.

THE REGION OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY IS ALONG THE MERGING COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH-DRY LINE ADVANCING GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN OK AND CNTRL/N TX.
GIVEN SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE...EVEN MODEST SFC HEATING
SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...50-60 KT
SWLY MID LVL FLOW ON SE FRINGE OF UPR LOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. AREA VWP DATA ATTM SHOW THE
LLJ AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH ALREADY STARTING TO VEER...AND THE LWR
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN VEERED TO A SSWLY DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY GIVEN THE NEWD MOTION/CONSOLIDATION OF ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.
THUS...EXPECT STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS/CLUSTERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DMGG WND AND HAIL
FROM EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.

THE ABOVE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN SIZABLE...ELONGATED MCS OR
TWO THIS EVE OVER SE OK AND PARTS OF NRN...ERN...AND CNTRL TX. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AND DEVELOP SWD INTO RICHER
MOISTURE OVER THE TX GULF CSTL PLN LATER TNGT/EARLY SAT. LOW TO MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND THE DEEP WIND FIELD ONLY
MODERATELY STRONG. BUT SETUP MAY NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
RISK FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC SVR WEATHER /LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR AN
ISOLD TORNADO/ GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND LIKELY PRESENCE
OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

FARTHER S AND E...SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT
INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MAY YIELD A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD STORMS
THAT POSE AT LEAST AN INTERMITTENT RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES TODAY OVER E TX...THE MID/UPR TX GULF CSTL
PLN...AND LA. UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK
UNDERCUTTING THE FOUR CORNERS LOW /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE. WHILE MODEST DEEP SHEAR WILL HAMPER
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...ENHANCED LOW LVL SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT NEAR WARM FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
TORNADOES.

[niner21]

sooooo, it looks like a "front" is coming in on Sunday?

I guess the timing and magnitude is the hard thing to pin point? If that sucker can roll in around 10 sunday it should clear out the muggy and damp crap, unless it's a moist front.

[srainhoutx]

sooooo, it looks like a "front" is coming in on Sunday?

I guess the timing and magnitude is the hard thing to pin point? If that sucker can roll in around 10 sunday it should clear out the muggy and damp crap, unless it's a moist front.

More like Saturday morning/early afternoon for the front arrival, niner21. What remains to be seen is just how strong that upper level energy will be during Sunday afternoon/evening during your Super Bowl activities. The 06Z GFS trended a bit wetter. We will see...

[wxman57]

Want some cold? Here you go! From WeatherSpark (http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;a=USA/TX/Houston).

First, the 1983 Christmas Freeze. Note that the graphics below are from Hobby Airport. It was colder in central and north Houston. Look at the high of 28 on the 24th and a low of 13 on Christmas morning. High of 27 on Christmas. And there were a couple of other hard freezes later in December. Central and northern parts of Houston were below freezing from Wednesday evening (Dec 21) through Thursday morning (Dec. 27th).

Then there was the February of 1989 freeze. Hobby was below freezing for over 4 days:

And the "mother of all freezes" from the 1980s, the Christmas week of 1989. Hobby reached 9 degrees on Dec. 23 with a high of 26. Look at the 23F for the high on Dec. 22nd! Man, that was cold!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'd gladly give yall your 60-70 degree weather for the majority of winter, if you can give me two prolonged 4-5 day freezes like 83 and 89 each winter.