March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

[wxdata]

No real spring yet:

[texoz]

I'm conflicted. Ready for warmer weather, but not ready to have a summer like we've had in Central Texas over the last 2 years.

There have been 36 record highs in Austin (Camp Mabry) between May-Sept (2008-2009).

[wxman57]

I'm confused, Wxman. I too am curious how your official stance is on the rest of this winter season, comparing to some others. The statement about severe weather seems to be a different position. Can't have severe storms AND cold temps. Splain, Lucy.

No need to be confused. By "winter" season being over, I'm not talking about cold weather, just the threat of freezing/frozen precip. And with the storm track starting to lift farther north, that'll allow some deep Gulf moisture to stream northward ahead of the frontal systems, a recipe for some severe storms to our north.

[sleetstorm]

What you are saying, wxman57, is that the opportunity for additional snow and sleet this is month here in southeast is slight to nada, yes?

[sleetstorm]

Oh, by the way, today is my birthday. I know that this is a little late, Ed Mahmoud, but happy my friend.

[sleetstorm]

Did you happen to get anything good/interesting for your birthday, Ed Mahmoud such as going out to eat at one your favorite restaurants?

[wxman57]

What you are saying, wxman57, is that the opportunity for additional snow and sleet this is month here in southeast is slight to nada, yes?

Correct, that part of winter appears to be over. However, the below-normal temps may continue through April.

[srainhoutx]

What you are saying, wxman57, is that the opportunity for additional snow and sleet this is month here in southeast is slight to nada, yes?

Correct, that part of winter appears to be over. However, the below-normal temps may continue through April.

HPC offered an interesting tidbit regarding the blocking pattern we have seen all winter. I see HGX is taking a 'wait and see' approach concerning a rather stout Upper Low / Cold Front during the mid week time frame...we shall see...but it does appear that some more 'cooler air' is heading S...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
900 AM EST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 12Z WED MAR 10 2010 - 12Z SAT MAR 13 2010


THE ONLY CHANGE IN OUR UPDATED PRELIMS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
WAS TO SUBSTITUTE THE NEW 00Z/06 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE
PREVIOUSLY USED 12Z/06 ECMWF MEAN...BLENDING IT 50% WITH THE
00Z/06 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TUE-SAT DAYS 3-7. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
EARLY PRELIM ARGUMENTS GIVEN BELOW APPLY. THE LATEST 00Z/06
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS CONFIRM THE WISDOM OF STAYING WITH THE
SLOWER ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE MASSIVE SYS
AFFECTING THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FROM CENTRAL CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN EUROPE IS EXPECTED TO
PARTIALLY BLOCK THE UPSTREAM FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC AND
NORTHWESTERN NOAM THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TWO SEPARATE STREAMS...A NORTHERN ONE TOPPING THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN RIDGE TOWARD THE ARCTIC CIRCLE...AND A SOUTHERN
ONE COMPRISED OF THE POLAR JET...AIDING IN THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED LOWS AFFECTING THE CONUS. MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BUT DISAGREE ON THE DAY-TO-DAY
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS. THE 00Z/06 DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS
GENERALLY CONSIDERED A FAST OUTLIER WITH PERTINENT SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE CONUS...WHILE THE 00Z/06 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS BEST
SUPPORTED BY OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE MODELS SOLUTION SPREAD ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS THE WEST
ON DAY 3...THE PREFERENCE WAS FOR A 00Z ECMWF-LIKE SCENARIO ALL
DAYS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS IN PHASE TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
BEST ACCOUNTING FOR THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


JAMES/FLOOD

[sambucol]

Does it look like we'll have anymore freezing temps this winter?

[srainhoutx]

Does it look like we'll have anymore freezing temps this winter?

That is the $64,000 Dollar question sambucol, IMHO. Although I will enjoy the 'warmth' this weekend.

[wxman57]

I'm still waiting for some warmth. Took a vacation day to get some biking in and the temp started out at 63 around noon and dropped to 58 when I got back at 4:30. There wasn't a second that went by when I wasn't thinking about how cold I felt. We should at least have a FEW breaks in the clouds today, which will make it less freezing cold than yesterday, but far from warm. Warm starts around 78-80F for me.

As for any more freezes, I think we're probably done for the season. With each day, the snow to our north is diminishing. The sun's getting higher and the days are getting longer. Just waiting for that first 80 degree day. It'll almost certainly be after March 15th, making it one of the latest first 80 degree days on record.

[Ptarmigan]

Just came back from an outdoor party. It was, but it was cooler. Everyone complained how it was colder than usual. All my friends talked about how this winter is the coldest they have ever felt. It is certainly the coldest since 1983-84.

[wxman57]

No sign of 80F on the overnight GFS run. Maybe 2010 will be "the year without a spring or summer"? No major cold fronts indicated, just reinforcments to the cool air already overhead for the next few weeks. That large upper low developing over the Eastern U.S. late this coming week should drop our lows into the lower 40s, though.

I adjusted the meteograms in an anticipation that spring would eventually arrive. I replaced the 70F red dashed line with a "Warm - 80F" line and changed the vertical scale to go from 20F to 95F,not that we're going to see 95 anytime soon.

[jasonhoutx]

Maybe 2010 will be "the year without a spring or summer"?

dude you're killing me. I am about to turn "opposite" ArizonaDesert on this forum if we can't get this cold crap out of here

on a serious note, how likely is it we don't hit 100 this summer? I will cry if we don't start warming up.

[wxman57]

Maybe 2010 will be "the year without a spring or summer"?

dude you're killing me. I am about to turn "opposite" ArizonaDesert on this forum if we can't get this cold crap out of here

on a serious note, how likely is it we don't hit 100 this summer? I will cry if we don't start warming up.

100! I'm wondering if we'll reach 80!

If any of you are heading to the beach for spring break next week, better bring a jacket. And you can leave that bathing suit home. Could use a wetsuit, though, like they do on the beaches of California. Water temps are between 59-62 degrees, even down on Padre Island.


Here's the 12Z GFS. I identified Spring Break on the 2nd meteogram. Highs below 65 (and several highs below 60) does not equal great beach weather:

[biggerbyte]

Forgive me, but for the sake of our lurkers, I am even still confused as to where you guys stand for the remainder of this winter season. Temps in the upper 60's and low 70's is hardly winter/cold. That is not even jacket weather for most. As a matter of fact, that would be rated as cool, or more early/late spring like. So which is it guys and gals???? Do you think "winter" is over, or do you not?

My take.... One could go the path of normal thinking for most mets and suggest no more freezes, or frozen precip., I take my usual approach, especially with the unusual winter we have had this time, and go with a "never say never" attitude. Until we get past Easter, we will have more cold weather. By cold, I mean not spring like. A freeze or two is still possible this season, folks. Get a freeze, light or not, and even temps in the 40's, and guess what??? Instant frozen precip. of some sort. (Providing we have a storm system, of course, and conditions are right) Wacky weather we have down here these days... I think it not prudent to suggest anything written in stone so far in advance, even if it were considered the norm.

I do see the normal gradual warmup, but a bit of a rollercoaster ride, temp wise, for a bit of time. That means imtroducing the threat of severe weather across Texas.

[wxman57]

We're quite a bit below normal, almost 8 degrees for March so far. With temps forecast to remain 5-10 degrees below normal for the next 2 week, I'd say that's pretty cool. No, it's not mid winter cold with freezing/frozen precip, but it's very cool for the 2nd-3rd week of March. I expect that March will end with the average temps about 6-8 degrees below normal. That's a very cool March. It would be like having an average high of 88 with lows in the upper 60s in July.

[wxman57]

Well, I biked Friday, Saturday and today, about 3-5 hours per day. And for not a single second did I feel anything remotely close to "warm" the past 3 days. Lost 4 pounds so far, though. About 13 more to go...

Still don't see anything close to warm on the horizon. Maybe this will be the first March ever without hitting 80 for a high?

[Ptarmigan]

Well, I biked Friday, Saturday and today, about 3-5 hours per day. And for not a single second did I feel anything remotely close to "warm" the past 3 days. Lost 4 pounds so far, though. About 13 more to go...

Still don't see anything close to warm on the horizon. Maybe this will be the first March ever without hitting 80 for a high?

Could be possible. I have not see any records before 1969, which were not at IAH.

[svrwx0503]

Even though we will see the most widespread precip Monday, Tuesday afternoon and evening bears watching for the potential for some isolated strong storms. The atmosphere will remain rather moist and should be much more unstable as we fall into the right exit region of a very strong jet stream. Models aren't picking up on any major s/w's moving through the area at this time, although with some daytime heating and the strong divergence aloft associated with a favorable jet structure, some scattered storms should be able to get going during the afternoon and evening. SPC currently has areas to our northeast out-looked as "see text" due to the presence of better shear and co-location with the mid-level low over southwest KS; however it would not surprise me to get a few of our own homegrown storms.

It should be interesting to watch over the next day or so to see if conditions become more favorable.