Portastorm wrote:SPC just issued a mesoscale discussion and indicate a severe weather watch will soon be issued for parts of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, including the Austin metro area.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0064.html
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 250113Z - 250245Z
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL INCREASE AS TSTM COVERAGE GROWS LATER THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE TYPE OF WW...THE PROBABILITY OF
ISSUANCE BY 03Z IS 60 PERCENT.
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN/BIG BEND...AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DRT AND
LRD. PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY S OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH A RELATIVELY RICH WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH
OF S-CNTRL TX. FARTHER NW...MORE MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
EXISTS WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 800 MB IN THE
00Z DRT RAOB. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE GRADUALLY REMOVED AS
BAND OF FORCED ASCENT /NOW CROSSING THE BIG BEND/ OVERSPREADS THE
MODIFIED WARM SECTOR OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH MAY PERSIST
BETWEEN 800-700 MB...VEERING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST TSTMS WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A CLUSTER
MODE WITH PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE NE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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