January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[JackCruz]

What a boring end to January... I can't wait for next Winter (El Nino by all accounts).

More snow opportunities...just about 10 months or so to go until beautiful El Nino

[wxman57]

Just checking the overnight model runs. All have temps from 5-20F above normal from the Dakotas south through Texas for most of the next 15 days. No real cold to speak of south of Canada. They also indicate warming temps after the next week across the Plains (up to 15-20F above normal). The cold air still hasn't built into western Canada, though the models forecast it to build there this weekend.

Enjoy your cold weather yesterday and today, because that may be the coldest we see in January (at least). Here are a couple meteograms from the overnight run of the GFS. On the extended GFS, note that temps are only given for 6am and 6pm, so the afternoon highs will be 3-5 degrees warmer than what would be observed at 6pm. I was hoping for a bit warmer temps in the extended, but 70s is better than 50s.

The CFS says nice Arctic dump near the end of the month, wxman57...

Fortunately, that graphic only has our temps down into the upper 30s.

[jasons2k]

I wrapped all my plants/tender palms last night anticipating a low of 25-26, but it only got down to 30.

I'm not complaining though - my garden didn't get decimated this year like the last two years. I'm hoping for an early spring because getting all that gear out is such a chore.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ed, I've seen you mention this before. So, as I understand it a Warm and Wet Winter means a very active SEVERE Spring and Summer season?

[wxman57]

Current Nino 3.4 temps have been following very closely the pattern of 2007-2008-2009 (see below). European model predicts a spike upward this spring/summer, similar to what was seen in the spring of 2009. Other models aren't so bullish on the temperature rise. Could mean a significant drop in TC numbers this season.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is in. Here are the new meteograms. Bad news (for me) is that it shows another cold front down here near the end of the month. No freeze, though.

[weatherguy425]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... ntry/60229

^ Some one posted this on another forum. Quite the interesting read and video.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the long range/late January time frame, guidance is still 'sniffing' a potent storm crossing the Plains around the 25, +/- a couple of days. That trend has continued today and with the warmth expected over the next 7-10 days, the stage is being set for a possible severe weather event in the warm sector and much colder air spilling S as that storm complex passes off to the E.

01122012 12Z Euro f240.gif

01132012 12Z Euro 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

[MontgomeryCoWx]

AT the bare minimum I could go for a couple to few more inches of rain and more cold weather.

I"m hoping for some overrunning precip behind that cold air!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looking at the long range/late January time frame, guidance is still 'sniffing' a potent storm crossing the Plains around the 25, +/- a couple of days. That trend has continued today and with the warmth expected over the next 7-10 days, the stage is being set for a possible severe weather event in the warm sector and much colder air spilling S as that storm complex passes off to the E.

Snow is nice, but it really is "my back yard". Unless one is making a connction in Chicago or Denver, does anyone really care if it snows there? Whereas severe, good tornado video from Oklahoma or Nebraska, I'm watching it on YouTube.

Nice to see the Euro sort of seeing what the post-truncation GFS has been hinting at about a storm ~10-12 days out.

Well, I care. It's not uncommon for me to sniff out an impressive Winter Storm and fly in a day or two early to experience it. I love me some NorEasters about 100 miles inland in Massachusetts and New York. I also love Cascade Snows....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

srain, that last graphic looks like an Arctic invasion down the spine of the rockies, no?

[srainhoutx]

srain, that last graphic looks like an Arctic invasion down the spine of the rockies, no?

Time will tell...

[wxman57]

srain, that last graphic looks like an Arctic invasion down the spine of the rockies, no?

Time will tell...

I get the Euro ensembles out to 360 hrs. At 264 hrs now and rolling in. Curious to see what it shows that low height anomaly doing beyond 240hrs.

Out through 282 hrs now. Height anomaly shrinking and heights rising there.

At 324 hrs, ridge building offshore California and a trof across TX on the 26th. Indications of a frontal passage then, but nothing strong.

[weatherguy425]

Wxman, what does it do with the ridge off the CA coast after hour 324? I would think that if it became established there it would allow a some-what persistent trough to develop in the Central US, favoring a more southerly push to an future cold air invasions?

[svrwx0503]

The euro ensembles beyond 324hr keep the ridge off the CA coast maybe flattening it a tad bit but with continued toughing across western Canada and a very strong polar vortex (helping maintain a relatively zonal flow pattern across the US), it will be extremely hard to get any type of arctic air too far south into the United States.

I should add that the weak trough advertised to set up across the central US will likely aid in the passage of a couple of fronts down here, but nothing out of the ordinary for mid January. Unfortunately above normal temperatures could be the norm as we head through the remainder of the month.

[weatherguy425]

Are there any EXTREMELY long range indications/models that show conditions in Canada changing by early February?

[Ptarmigan]

Current Nino 3.4 temps have been following very closely the pattern of 2007-2008-2009 (see below). European model predicts a spike upward this spring/summer, similar to what was seen in the spring of 2009. Other models aren't so bullish on the temperature rise. Could mean a significant drop in TC numbers this season.

If we see El Nino again this year, it would the first time since 2009 where it went La Nina to El Nino in one year. They tend to produce some of the coldest winters on record.

La Nina to El Nino Years
1972-Three +1" snowfall in 1972-1973.
1976-Coolest year on record and one of the coldest winters on record.
2006-Ice storm in January 2007 and cold blast in April 2007.
2009-Produced one of coldest winter on record.

[wxman57]

Agreed, srain. Nothing indicates any major weather maker down here over the next few weeks.

They're playing my tune at CPC:

[srainhoutx]

Are there any EXTREMELY long range indications/models that show conditions in Canada changing by early February?

The only extremely long range model is the CFS that extends to 1092 hours and the Euro weeklies. I have little confidence in either of those or any model beyond a 7 day period, if that. That said, when agreement does continue to show up as with the late month storm potential, my ears tend to perk up a bit...

[ticka1]

Agreed, srain. Nothing indicates any major weather maker down here over the next few weeks.

They're playing my tune at CPC:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

Any rain?