January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[biggerbyte]

Agreed, Srain. None of the forecasts for Winter and the super dry pattern have verified. This rain is such a blessing for us all.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS/Canadian continue to advertise clouds and light rain returns Sunday as the cut off upper low off the California Coast ejects E and shears out. Rain chance appear to be rather light as that system weakens and a weak frontal boundary slowly drops S and stalls near the Texas Coast. There are some indications a weak wave of low pressure may develop along the Lower Texas Coast providing for lingering clouds and some possible over running moisture as we head later into next week.

The GFS is still sniffing a potent storm system near the 25th, +/- a couple of days and 'colder air' lurking to the N. A warm up appears to be ahead during the mid month time frame as well as an active zonal flow brings plentiful moisture to the Pacific NW and N CA and a battle zone air masses with very cold air in Canada building S into the Northern Plains and warmer temps S and along the East Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Hopefully Paul got out of Chicago in time...



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1045 AM CST THU JAN 12 2012

...SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY LINGERING INTO
TONIGHT...

ILZ005-006-012>014-020-022-INZ001-130045-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120113T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KLOT.WS.W.0001.120112T1645Z-120113T1500Z/
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-WILL-LAKE IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...AURORA...
WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO...JOLIET...GARY
1045 AM CST THU JAN 12 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.


* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
HEAVIEST FALLING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF
AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

* HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AND OPEN
AREAS. WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DROP TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE TODAY...WITH
TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAINING DANGEROUS AND TREACHEROUS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW REMOVAL OPERATIONS TO KEEP UP IN SOME AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

[JackCruz]

We must not give up.....we can't....we must fight..come on Houston....you can do it...I believe....let's create history!!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Oh, there will be snow today...but unfortunately it's all virga.

[weatherguy425]

Depressing to see the GFS start to gain a little bit of consistency in it's medium range. Seems that a persistent eastern U.S. trough may develop leaving us (Texas) largely spared by any cold air intrusions.


Editing to add that later in the run even colder air builds in western/central Canada with a more southward orientation into the US.

[Ptarmigan]

Oh, there will be snow today...but unfortunately it's all virga.

There is snow, yet nothing reaches the ground.

[Ptarmigan]

Complain about the warm temps all winter and now you're complaining that it's too cold?

Perhaps we'll have a February like my favorite winter of all - 1986. Got up into the 90s that February...

There was February of 1996 and it too got into the 90s.

[skidog38]

whats that stuff coming from el paso.

[Belmer]

whats that stuff coming from el paso.

I see that too. Too bad it isn't on top of us right now. At least we would get some 'flurries'. I would like to see some type of snow this winter whether it's accumulating or not.
Sure is interesting though! Infrared Satellite shows a little pocket of moisture moving over west TX right now slowly moving East. Water Vapor Satellite also shows moisture up in the upper levels in the atmosphere. They sure weren't predicting that tonight. It needs to speed up before the sun comes up over here. hahaha.
There goes my wishful thinking again...

[Andrew]

Anyone check the long range CMC? look out in the Atlantic Granted it is nothing tropical just a regular low but it is funny to see the CMC spin one up in the middle of the Atlantic like that.

[Belmer]

Moisture levels have really picked up a bit to our west as this 'disturbance' is slowly moving our way. Not really sure what to call it. At about 9pm-midnight snow, or more like 'flurries' were in El Paso. Now, a quarter before 3am and flurries/rain is south of Midland, beginning to the western parts of San Antonio and Austin. I'm sure whatever falling IS falling, but is very light. Will it make it here to Houston? Eh, could see some increase in clouds, but if there was any 'precip' when this 'disturbance' got here, it would probably be too warm. Talking after 9am. We'll see though.

[ticka1]

28 degrees this morning - this is what winter is all about! Would love these temps to be around for days!!!!

[ticka1]

I'll' gladly accept mid-upper 20s for 3 inches of snow and cancelled work and school...

I know Ed. Me too. But this is as close as to winter as we get - I'll take it. Had my fill and overfill of 100 degree temps this past summer!

[srainhoutx]

Moisture levels have really picked up a bit to our west as this 'disturbance' is slowly moving our way. Not really sure what to call it. At about 9pm-midnight snow, or more like 'flurries' were in El Paso. Now, a quarter before 3am and flurries/rain is south of Midland, beginning to the western parts of San Antonio and Austin. I'm sure whatever falling IS falling, but is very light. Will it make it here to Houston? Eh, could see some increase in clouds, but if there was any 'precip' when this 'disturbance' got here, it would probably be too warm. Talking after 9am. We'll see though.

That is nothing more than a weak short wave that the models have been picking up on. The returns you see on radar is virga. The lower levels are just too dry for any to reach the lower levels. As I mentioned yesterday, you could see the 'snow' falling from the mid level clouds but evaporation dried that up with extremely low dew points as it fell. Those high/mid level clouds should pass N of Metro Houston today. One more chilly night then we start to warm up. The guidance is slowly lessening our rain chances for early week as the cut off upper low off California shears out while crossing the S Plains. One thing that looks for sure, the Pacific NW and N California
are in for a very 'wet' pattern as the Pacific fire hose will be aimed at those Coastal areas. It may be time to plan a ski trip to Shasta or Tahoe...

01132012 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zgfsensemblep120192.gif

01132012 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zgfsensemblep120240.gif

Mt Shasta January 2008 007.jpg

[wxman57]

Just checking the overnight model runs. All have temps from 5-20F above normal from the Dakotas south through Texas for most of the next 15 days. No real cold to speak of south of Canada. They also indicate warming temps after the next week across the Plains (up to 15-20F above normal). The cold air still hasn't built into western Canada, though the models forecast it to build there this weekend.

Enjoy your cold weather yesterday and today, because that may be the coldest we see in January (at least). Here are a couple meteograms from the overnight run of the GFS. On the extended GFS, note that temps are only given for 6am and 6pm, so the afternoon highs will be 3-5 degrees warmer than what would be observed at 6pm. I was hoping for a bit warmer temps in the extended, but 70s is better than 50s.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

What a boring end to January... I can't wait for next Winter (El Nino by all accounts).

[wxman57]

What a boring end to January... I can't wait for next Winter (El Nino by all accounts).

I think that there's a fair chance that El Nino will appear by July.

[srainhoutx]

Just checking the overnight model runs. All have temps from 5-20F above normal from the Dakotas south through Texas for most of the next 15 days. No real cold to speak of south of Canada. They also indicate warming temps after the next week across the Plains (up to 15-20F above normal). The cold air still hasn't built into western Canada, though the models forecast it to build there this weekend.

Enjoy your cold weather yesterday and today, because that may be the coldest we see in January (at least). Here are a couple meteograms from the overnight run of the GFS. On the extended GFS, note that temps are only given for 6am and 6pm, so the afternoon highs will be 3-5 degrees warmer than what would be observed at 6pm. I was hoping for a bit warmer temps in the extended, but 70s is better than 50s.

The CFS says nice Acrtic dump near the end of the month, wxman57...

[JackCruz]

28 degrees this morning - this is what winter is all about! Would love these temps to be around for days!!!!

It felt AMAZING this morning...loved it