January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[MESOMAN]

I wish the stepping down process would happen for about 2 months straight to bring in a ton of cold air and more than a miracle chance at snowfall. The impact weather webinar this morning wasn't very encouraging about getting cold and precip around the Gulf Coast region at the same time. Can never rule out the snow miracle but seems like cold and dry or wet but not cold enough.

Same ole SE TX winter for ya.

[Big O]

Steve, long-range European is atrocious.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff with yesterdays storm reports:

Very active weather day across the area on Monday with both severe weather and flooding rainfall. Below is a list of some of the reports. Damage assessments are still ongoing across the area.

12 NE Bryan, Brazos: Trees blown down near OSR and Fountain Swiss Rd

Trinity, Trinity: Trees down along FM 230 from the County line to Trinity

East Bernard: Austin: Ping pong ball size hail reported

3 WNW Sugar Land, Fort Bend: Funnel cloud reported by Hull Airport tower.

2 SE Katy, Harris: .88 inch hail at HWY 99 and Fry Rd

Mission Bend, Fort Bend: 1.0 in hail

2 N Richmond, Fort Bend: Penny size hail at Bellaire and HWY 99

4 WNW Meadows, Fort Bend: Tornado (EF1). Damage to houses, fences, windows in the Mission Bend area. Damage path .5 of a mile long and 50 yards wide. Winds of 95mph near the intersection of Bissonnet and Gains Rd. Significant roof damage to 10 homes along Royal Way.

Below is video of strong winds from this storm/tornado impacting a repair shop along HWY 6

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?secti ... id=8495542


Richmond, Fort Bend: High Water rescues at 3rd street, apartments flooded.

SW Houston, Harris: HFD worked numerous high water rescues with vehicles in 4-5 feet water.

Houston, Harris: House flooding in the Fleetwood, and Barker’s Landing subdivisions east of HWY 6 and south of I-10 along Buffalo Bayou

Houston, Harris: Severe flooding of SH 288 at Holly Hall from back water from Brays Bayou

Myerland, Harris: Significant street flooding and possible house flooding from bankfull Brays Bayou

The Meadows, Fort Bend: Overbank flooding on Keegans Bayou at US 59/Beltway 8 impacting several structures in Fort Bend County.

5 WNW First Colony, Fort Bend: Cars under water in the New Territory subdivision, residents trapped in homes

Sugar Land, Fort Bend: vehicles trapped in high water on Settlers Way and Lexington Blvd

2 SE Bonney, Brazoria: 2 18-wheelers blown over at SH 288 and CR 48…possible tornado.

Dickenson, Galveston: Tornado touch down at Mall of the Mainland producing structural damage to the mall. Numerous car windows blown out

[srainhoutx]

Steve, long-range European is atrocious.

And your point is? The Euro score for verification along with any guidance is atrocious at that range. A prime example is the Euro weeklies. We would have been hot and DRY since November down here. We see how well that worked out...

[Ptarmigan]

The last time we had such a stormy and rainy January day was on January 18, 1989. February 1989 had a prolonged freeze and subfreezing days in March. A stormy April to June ensued. There were floods in May and June of 1989. I wonder we could see a repeat of 1989 this year? Also, early 1989 was a La Nina and there was a drought.

The nation's first major winter storm rumbled through Texas yesterday, bringing much appreciated heavy rains. The storm set also spawned the year's first two tornadoes, and brought record-setting heavy snows to West Texas. A wide swath of 3 - 5 inches of rain fell over much of Eastern Texas and Southern Louisiana, bringing isolated flooding to the drought-ravaged region. Houston, Texas received 4.06" of rain, breaking the previous record rainfall for the date of 2.54". It was the heaviest rainfall for Houston since the 4.87" that fell October 15, 2007. Drought-stricken Texas has now received the heaviest precipitation, relative to average, of any state in the U.S. during 2012, thanks to a highly abnormal jet stream pattern that is keeping the northern polar branch of the jet stream far to the north in Canada. The latest GFS model forecast predicts that this unusually dry pattern will persist for at least the next ten days, with the possibility of it breaking down during the last week of January.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2011

Masters is wrong on yesterday being the wettest day since 2007. Ike occurred in 2008 and dumped 6 to 12 inches of rain on us. It was the wettest day since July 2, 2010, when the outer bands of Hurricane Alex dumped heavy rain on us.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The last time we had such a stormy January day was on January 18, 1989. February 1989 had a prolonged freeze and subfreezing days in March. A stormy April to June ensued. There were floods in May and June of 1989. I wonder we could see a repeat of 1989 this year? Also, early 1989 was a La Nina and there was a drought.

This would be perfect... especially to knock out that drought!

[Ptarmigan]

The last time we had such a stormy January day was on January 18, 1989. February 1989 had a prolonged freeze and subfreezing days in March. A stormy April to June ensued. There were floods in May and June of 1989. I wonder we could see a repeat of 1989 this year? Also, early 1989 was a La Nina and there was a drought.

This would be perfect... especially to knock out that drought!

1988 is one of the driest years and eclipsed 2011. The 1988 drought ended pretty much by 1989.

Overview of 1989
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5&p=37

[srainhoutx]

I've seen several long range forecasters that I trust mention the 1989 analog repeatedly. I really never fully trust analogs, but arguments can be made for there usefulness when combined with some climatology.

[Ptarmigan]

I've seen several long range forecasters that I trust mention the 1989 analog repeatedly. I really never fully trust analogs, but arguments can be made for there usefulness when combined with some climatology.

I find analogs useful as they can give us a general idea what it will be like.

I have also thought this year could be like 1989. Here are the differences and similarities with 1989 and 2012. Rankings are from 1895-2011 and based on Upper Texas Coast Climate Division.

Differences
1989
Cool phase of Atlantic
Previous winter of 1987-1988 was El Nino (24th Coldest Winter/23rd Driest Winter) Strange to see an El Nino winter to be dry as they are usually wet.
Summer 1988 was not hot, but dry (48th Coolest Summer/28th Driest Summer)


2012
Warm phase of Atlantic
Previous winter of 2010-2011 was La Nina (38th Coldest Winter/20th Driest Winter)
Summer 2011 was hot (1st Hottest Summer/8th Driest Summer)

Similarities
Previous winters were top 40 coldest and top 25 driest winter on record
Previous years were driest on record and had drought
In La Nina phase
Had active hurricane seasons
1988 (12/5/3 ACE: 103)
2012 (19/7/3 ACE: 121)
Heavy rain fell in January
Lack of December snow coverage in Northern Hemisphere
December 1988-41,092,444 Square Kilometers (4th Least Snow Covered For Northern Hemisphere)
December 2011-42,699,509 Square Kilometers (13th Least Snow Covered For Northern Hemisphere)
Source:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ta ... p?ui_set=2

Summer of 1989 is one of the coolest summers (12th coolest) on record for Upper Texas Coast. Also, Allison, Chantal, and Jerry made landfall in 1989. Could 2012 be like this?

Winter research 2011-2012
http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-me ... 2011-2012/

This caught my attention.
Interesting matches are present with either state of QBO: 2010/11, 1967/68, 1917/18, and 1903/04 all fit the profile, so do 2008/09 and 1974/75.

I cannot find QBO data before the late 1940s. I wonder if there is QBO data going back to early 20th century.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

dang, very nice find! Really pulling for a 1989 like weather year.

[djmike]

Wow... NWS has 22 for a low in Beaumont! Gonna be a COLD Friday morning!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Here's a fun link to dream about... Memorable Winter Storms in Texas

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dsnows


Wow on some of those April Snows

[srainhoutx]

Light freeze area wide Friday morning and possibly Saturday morning as the strong Canadian front passes very early on Thursday morning. Gusty winds during the day Thursday should make it difficult to reach the mid 50's. If we have some clouds, upper 40's like we saw today may not be out of the question. Cold and dry for the Olympic Trails Marathon on Saturday with some possible mid/high clouds as a weak upper air disturbance passes in an upper NW flow looks possible. Good luck to all those in the Houston Marathon as well on Sunday!

[Big O]

I attended (telephonically) the Impact Webinar Winter Update this morning and had a question that wasn't answered during the on-air portion of the webinar. However, the meteorologist making the presentation answered my question via e-mail just now. I share the question and answer for the sake of those, who like me, are on the ledge:

"What is needed in order to dislodge Arctic air that is forecast to build over Canada (i.e., how can we get the strong gradient pattern to buckle)?

The flow pattern in essence needs to slow down. One way you can do that is by decreasing the intensity of the circum-polar vortex over the northern latitudes by decreasing the thermal gradient from the Arctic to the sub tropics. One way you can do that is by warming the stratosphere which in essence will also warm the upper part of the troposphere. A warmer upper troposphere will decrease the temperature gradient from the Arctic to the sub tropics causing the westerly winds associated with the circum polar vortex to slow down. When the flow pattern slows down it has an increased likelihood of buckling and pulling cold air southward. Right now it does appear a major stratospheric warming even will come into play for late Jan so be advised we could see much colder air for late Jan or Feb moving across the Lower 48."

Keep hope alive!!! And as Steve (Srain) likes to do:

[jasons2k]

The whispers of 1989 are concering (to me at least) but at the same time we hear that every year. Even 1899 always seems to come-up. How many times have we seen 'JB thinks the ghost of 1899 of is only 2-3 weeks away - look out!'.

It's ALWAYS 2-3 weeks away.

Show me something within 7-days and then I'll take notice.

I'm ready for spring. I said that last year, got it Mid-Feb, but then it didn't rain for 6 months. Let's hope this time we can at least have rain this spring

[srainhoutx]

While we are not in Dodge City, KS, I did find their afternoon discussion a bit interesting. And for those in doubt about cold and snow building to our N, they do offer some insight:

WAITING UPSTREAM...HOWEVER...WILL BE ONE MASSIVE AND BRUTALLY COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER WESTERN CANADA (WIDESPREAD -30 TO -33C AT 850MB
OVER ALBERTA). A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS A DENSITY CURRENT REACHING
WESTERN KANSAS SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE BEGINNING OF PERHAPS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLOSHING
(MODIFIED) ARCTIC AIR ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SERIOUSLY CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECASTING FOR JANUARY 17 THROUGH
25 OR SO. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE.

[Portastorm]

The forecasters out of the NWS Dodge City (Kansas) office have, for years, offered some of the best upstream weather analysis in winter for us Texans. If they start honking about something, look out below!

Thanks for sharing this srainhoutx.

[JackCruz]

I would really like for all the cold air that's building in Alaska to come straight into Texas and not aim at Florida....sorry I'm selfish when it comes to cold air

[Ptarmigan]

The whispers of 1989 are concering (to me at least) but at the same time we hear that every year. Even 1899 always seems to come-up. How many times have we seen 'JB thinks the ghost of 1899 of is only 2-3 weeks away - look out!'.

It's ALWAYS 2-3 weeks away.

Show me something within 7-days and then I'll take notice.

I'm ready for spring. I said that last year, got it Mid-Feb, but then it didn't rain for 6 months. Let's hope this time we can at least have rain this spring

Interesting 1899 is mentioned. If we had 1899, the winter would be much cooler. Also, June 1899 had a huge flood event.

[srainhoutx]

The forecast continues to look promising for the weekend activities. A strong Canadian front will pass early morning Thursday bringing very gusty N/NW winds with gusts into the 30 mph+ range making for a chilly day. Temps on Friday may be tricky as high/mid level colds and strong CAA continues keeping highs in the mid/upper 40's. An approaching upper level shortwave looks to bring high/mid level clouds late Friday. A light freeze appears on tap Friday and possibly Saturday morning.

The medium/long range guidance is suggesting light rain/showers return early next week as a weak U/L ejects E from CA and a coastal trough develops along the Lower TX Coast. A zonal split flow develops and another upper trough swings SE with an attending front mid week bringing another dry push of chilly air. The coldest air will remain to our E as a trough develops along the EC. The long range GFS/Euro is also sniffing a potent storm near the 25th, +/- a couple of days that offers another heavy rain event for Central/SE TX. The $64,000 question is where will the cold air building across Canada be located?

Indications increase that a SSW/MWW event is under way, but exactly where that major cold air travels remains in question. It does appear January will offer chances of some much needed rains to ease our drought. Interesting days ahead, gang. Stay Tuned and GO TEXANS!