December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[tireman4]

We have had this conversation many times before. It does not have to be freezing at the surface to snow. Temp forecasts, and current temps are at the surface. I've seen it snow with conditions like we have now many, many times. Want proof? Watch the video from Atascosita on Channel 2. I'm sure they will replay it at 10.

Gee I live here and did not see anything. Humm. Maybe I was not looking for it...I thought it was a misty, spritzy rain.

[tireman4]

I have personally seen ( Wake Forest, North Carolina) it snow very heavily ( March 1990) in 36 degree weather, for what it is worth...

[Andrew]

Currently a light mist up here in College Station. It has been a very depressing day....

[helloitsb]

Any chance any more of these random spots pop up around Houston?

[wxman57]

It can certainly snow with temps well above freezing at the surface (40s or even low 50s), but it cannot snow if the temps aloft are above freezing in the lower 3000-5000 ft. I don't think the air aloft is cold enough (below freezing) below 5000 ft, but I'm not logged into my office workstation to check obs aloft presently. The current RUC sounding for just north of Houston suggests snow is impossible here. The temperatures aloft are well above freezing all the way up to 12,000 ft. See below. That looked like drizzle blowing in the wind on Ch. 2's video.

[redneckweather]

BB, I'm very aware that it CAN snow with temps in the 40's and even upper 40's but it is NOT common like you are making it out to be. The air aloft can be at or below freezing and moisture can fall in the variety of snow but as wxman just pointed out, that is not the case. I just watched the video and hell, that's freakin floating wind whipped drizzle which IS a very common occurance down here in southeast Texas. Don't worry folks, y'all did not miss anything this evening. Hopefully old man winter will have some hope for us as we dig farther into December.

[helloitsb]

misting here in Klein a mile or so East of Hooks

[biggerbyte]

Guys, none of us were in Atascosita when the Channel 2 video was taken. So all we have to go by is the video itself. I did say it look more like snizzle to me, in spite of people that were there calling it a "wet snow". Common occurrence? Not sure about that. The conditions have to be right, but those conditions are right sometimes. Nobody in this forum knew what the conditions were over Atascosita at the time the video was taken.

My comment was simply based on what you said, redneck, which was it can't be snowing with temps in the 40s. Nothing was mentioned about temps above ground level. Had you said that instead, I would have said that I agree that conditions over the area should not be supporting snow. Channel 2 reports, they show the video, and I become the messenger. If anyone has a problem with Channel 2s video and statements, please feel free to contact Frank.

Let me just quote you, and what I responded to. Your comment, in and of itself, is not an accurate assessment for snowfall anywhere, not just our area. Again, I have driven my car down 1314 with a temp of 45 degrees and heavy snowfall. It did not stick to anything, but there none the less.

Quite:

"Snowing in southeast Texas in the mid to upper40's? Uh, I don't think so"

End Quote:

Have a good night, guys. I'm out of here until tomorrow night when temps are expected to be in the mid. twenties.

[C2G]

Here's a link to the Ch. 2 video: http://www.click2houston.com/news/Wintr ... index.html.

What's the latest on the cold front for this weekend? Still on track?

That looks like drizzle illuminated by light. Believe me as a kid I illuminated much drizzle with my flashlight, hoping against hope it was snow, so I'm an authority.

[biggerbyte]

LOL

Oops! I'm a night ahead. Mid. twenties the night after. Not tomorrow night.

Okay, NOW I am gone.

CYA

[txsnowmaker]

Here's a link to the Ch. 2 video: http://www.click2houston.com/news/Wintr ... index.html.

What's the latest on the cold front for this weekend? Still on track?

That looks like drizzle illuminated by light. Believe me as a kid I illuminated much drizzle with my flashlight, hoping against hope it was snow, so I'm an authority.

FWIW, Channel 2 just led off the 10 pm newscast with a report on the "snow" in Atascocita. On to the next system. Here's to hoping that we are soon greeted with an event that brings snow to our area, leaving no room for doubt.

[redneckweather]

That was channel 2 doing what it does best, sensationalizing the news. If I was Frank, I would be embarrased that they ran a segment on that! lol It's kind of like the public calling in funnel clouds or tornadoes down here in southeast Texas when more times than not it was just low hanging scud clouds. The same thing with these snow sightings down here this time of year.

I was also one of those kids who stood outside at night with a flashlight screaming that it was snowing but in reality it was just that damn drizzle floating through the air.

[jasons2k]

It's just drizzle and mist folks. Conditions aren't even borderline for snow. Lighting can do crazy things to video. And FWIW like Redneck said, you can often take the news reports with a grain of salt. Garbage in = garbage out.

Now in the past we've seen some sleet before when the soundings didn't support it, but that's a totally different scenario (evaporative cooling in a dry column). When it's totally saturated at the surface and 45+ plus all they way up, it ain't gonna snow.

[Andrew]

I am most likely getting ahead of myself here especially with the GFS but looking into late next week the GFS is showing a pretty potent system coming down from Canada POSSIBLY dumping a lot of cold air down this way. The GFS is showing a pretty large dip in the Jet Stream and heights really dropping across the central U.S. While we have to remember this is in the low resolution stage it could throw us some hints on things to come. Keep an eye out for late next week and we will see if other models begin to latch on to this idea more.

As for the ongoing debate for the video from click2houston I am pretty confident that is not snow. Just from looking at the speed of the precipitation especially when winds really pick up is a clear indication of it being rain. Also soundings (as shown earlier) have indicated an above freezing layer through a wide area of the atmosphere. Anyways things look cold for the next couple of days.

[Andrew]

Also Looking at the latest GFS MOS Output the gfs has been coming in colder for lows for the next couple of days. For Houston it is showing a low of 29 for the morning of the 7th and a low of 28 the night after. I suspect we will see the NWS lowering temps across SE Texas tomorrow.

[Andrew]

Very interesting run from the CMC that shows a possible shortwave crossing the state this weekend with some moisture to go along with it. Temperature profiles would indicate the possibility of some P-type issues but temps might be a little bullish... Something to watch for the next couple of days.

[srainhoutx]

We may see some Freeze Watches/Warnings hoisted later today for parts of SE TX. More later concerning just what the weekend may offer...

[JackCruz]

This morning on FOX news the met said SPOTTY sleet tonight/tomorrow...don't know if he has a video online or blog or something. Accuweather dropped temps in my area for tomorrow morning to 27 degrees and thursday morning to 28 degrees

[srainhoutx]

I suppose it's possible that a stray sleet pettet or two could occur closer to the Coast with some disturbances riding the noisy southern jet that is right on top of SE TX and the Coastal regions...we'll need to see if we clear out though as the day progresses...it still appears a bit too dry at the mid levels for anything to make it to the surface...we will see...

[wxman57]

This morning on FOX news the met said SPOTTY sleet tonight/tomorrow...don't know if he has a video online or blog or something. Accuweather dropped temps in my area for tomorrow morning to 27 degrees and thursday morning to 28 degrees

Sleet would appear unlikely, as projected upper-air profiles suggest very little moisture will be available by this evening. GFS does have the main upper trof/low passing SE TX by sunrise tomorrow. Such passages have occasionally produced "surprises" in the past, so we can't rule out the chance of a few sleet pellets. Again, though, the problem may be a general lack of moisture aloft.