SE Texas Thanksgiving Weather? Happy Thanksgiving!

[sambucol]

Any idea what the models are showing for our Thanksgiving weather here?

[unome]

Accuweather is the only forecast that I know of that actually publishes a forecast that far out (there's probably more) http://www.accuweather.com/us/tx/housto ... -month.asp

imo, it should be taken with a pound of salt... as should any 2-wk forecast

[srainhoutx]

There are hints of a pattern change allowing the cold air that has been pooling across Western Siberia, The Arctic, Alaska, and Western Canada to begin to spill slowly S in the medium range of guidance. While the timing and day to day output has varied, there are suggestions of a NE Pacific Ridge building allowing for that cold air to begin to trek down south of the Canadian Border into the W and along the lee side of the Rockies. As has been mentioned, this is way out there in model world, but I suppose with a Major Holiday and travel plans looming for many, it isn't too soon to start looking ahead...


HPC Afternoon Update:

12Z SHORTWAVE TRAFFIC THRU THE FAST FLOW/BROAD TROF ACROSS THE
LOWER IS QUITE COMPLEX...WITH WILDY DIFFERENT RESULTS FOR THE
SURFACE PATTERNS ESPECIALLY AROUND WED DAY 4. LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH NO COMPELLING REASON FOR BIG CONTINUITY CHANGES
FROM THE UPDATED PRELIM. THE 12Z UKMET..FOR EXAMPLE...HAS A WAVY
FRONT NEAR THE OH VLY WHILST THE CANADIAN HAS COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE OH VLY WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO!
HOWEVER...THE NEW ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTED A WAVY FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL APLCHNS DAY 4...THOUGH NOT AS FAR N AS THE UKMET.
OVERALL...THE 12Z RUN THE 12Z GFS GAVE THE BEST FIT TO OUR EARIER
THINKING ON MOST FEATURES AFFECTING THE CONUS. FINAL MANUAL PROGS
ADJUSTED THE FRONT A BIT N OF THE PRELIM POSITION IN THE SE STATES
WHICH WAS A GOOD FIT TO A 12Z/12 ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE. BY DAYS 6-7
THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
AFFECTING THE NATION ...A NEW WRN TROF AND SERN RIDGE...BUT AGAIN
DIFFER ON FAST TO BRING COLD AIR SWD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE WEST.
THE UKMT HOLDS MOST OF THE COLD AIR N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN BEGIN TO BLEED SOME COLD AIR SWD E OF THE
NRN ROCKIES.

TELECONNECTIONS ON THE REDEVELOPING MEAN TROF NEAR/JUST OFF THE W
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK GENERALLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES LAKES. WE PREFERRED THE 12Z/11 ECENS MEAN
OVER THE CORRESPONDING NEWER 00Z/12 MEAN AS IT KEEPS HEIGHTS
HIGHER IN THE ERN CONUS...A BETTER FIT TO TELECONNECTIONS. THE
00Z/12 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP A SHARPER TROF FARTHER W THAN
THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. I
WOULD LIKE TO HOLD OFF ON MAKING A JUDGMENT CALL HERE UNTIL WE GET
A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE ERN
PACIFIC. THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.

SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT THE
FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY
DISAGREEMENT COMING OUT OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THOSE
DIFFERENCES SETTLE OUT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HEIGHTS SLOWLY FOLLOW. WELL UPSTREAM...
ENERGY CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EASTWARD WED/D4 TOWARD THE PAC NW AS RIDGING BUILDS STRONGLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES LATE
NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN WITH
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE GFS DOES NOT TAKE
LOW PRESSURE INTO MN FRI/D6 LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES SEEN IN RECENT MODEL RUNS RIGHT FROM THE SHORT
TERM... USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 12Z/11 ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN TO DAMPEN ANY TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES.

[srainhoutx]

It's still a long way out in model world and guidance has struggled daily with the pattern, but indications are still there for a nice cool down across the Western half of the US near Thanksgiving. We will see...edit to add: The Canadian Geese are active this morning across the Katy Prairie...just perhaps there is a change brewing...

[srainhoutx]

Still a long way out, but no cold air indicated in model world for Thanksgiving in SE TX. That said, there does appear to be a chance of severe weather early next week for the Northern parts of Texas and Oklahoma as yet another upper disturbance digs S and a deep trough forms to our W. We will see...

[Ptarmigan]

GFS shows a rather warm and wet Thanksgiving. I know it is in 9 days.

24 Hour Rainfall
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p24216.gif

2 Meter Temperature
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... mps216.gif

All our for 1800Z (UTC) forecast.

[wxman57]

GFS and Canadian move a cold front through early Wednesday with lows in the low-mid 40s and highs in the 60s on Thanksgiving Day. Euro doesn't indicate any frontal passage until after Thanksgiving.

[ticka1]

GFS and Canadian move a cold front through early Wednesday with lows in the low-mid 40s and highs in the 60s on Thanksgiving Day. Euro doesn't indicate any frontal passage until after Thanksgiving.

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[wxman57]

GFS and Canadian move a cold front through early Wednesday with lows in the low-mid 40s and highs in the 60s on Thanksgiving Day. Euro doesn't indicate any frontal passage until after Thanksgiving.

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Which part? New GFS has mid 40s for the low on Thanksgiving and 60s for the high. Euro, and now the Canadian, are much weaker with next Wednesday's front, indicating lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s.

[tireman4]

New GFS has mid 40s for the low on Thanksgiving and 60s for the high

I think that one Wxman 57...

[helloitsb]

what is it looking like now for Thanksgiving? I wish it would be at least kind of cool

[srainhoutx]

what is it looking like now for Thanksgiving? I wish it would be at least kind of cool

Clear skies and seasonably cool with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's. Doesn't sound too unbearable to me...

[helloitsb]

am I reading the GFS wrong or is it showing generally lower temps than what is being forecast by NWS?

[Andrew]

am I reading the GFS wrong or is it showing generally lower temps than what is being forecast by NWS?

Well the latest 00Z GFS has come in a little warmer. Here is the MOS:

KIAH GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/23/2011 0000 UTC
FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
WED 23| THU 24| FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30 CLIMO
X/N 73| 49 74| 55 75| 63 72| 41 63| 39 71| 49 68| 45 63 47 69
TMP 63| 51 64| 58 67| 66 59| 42 55| 42 60| 51 58| 47 55
DPT 51| 48 53| 57 64| 64 46| 29 30| 32 43| 44 40| 39 36
CLD CL| CL CL| CL OV| OV OV| CL CL| CL CL| PC CL| CL CL
WND 7| 5 7| 6 14| 11 15| 15 22| 7 9| 6 13| 6 10
P12 2| 4 3| 5 6| 64 56| 17 0| 0 3| 7 10| 12 11 20 21
P24 | 8| 17| 84| 27| 3| 17| 18 30
Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 2 4| 0 0| 0 0| 0 |
Q24 | 0| 0| 4| 0| 0| |
T12 0| 2 2| 2 7| 33 33| 10 5| 4 6| 5 7| 7 7
T24 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 35 | 7 | 8 | 10
PZP 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 0 1| 1 0| 0 0
PSN 2| 0 2| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0
PRS 0| 1 0| 0 0| 1 1| 2 1| 1 0| 1 1| 1 1
TYP R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R
SNW | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| |

[srainhoutx]

I want to take moment to wish all our weather forum family a very Happy Thanksgiving. I personally have so much to be thankful for this year. As our team of Mods/Admins know, I had a very serious health scare during September/October. I have recovered, but I feel a very special reason to be thankful this year. I hope everyone enjoys the time with family, friends or whatever you do. Please be safe and enjoy!

[tireman4]

I echo Steve's thoughts. I want to wish everyone a great holiday and upcoming holiday month ( Well, that what December is..LOL). Stay well, do well and be well.

[Ptarmigan]

I want to take moment to wish all our weather forum family a very Happy Thanksgiving. I personally have so much to be thankful for this year. As our team of Mods/Admins know, I had a very serious health scare during September/October. I have recovered, but I feel a very special reason to be thankful this year. I hope everyone enjoys the time with family, friends or whatever you do. Please be safe and enjoy!

Well said! Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here. What I want for Christmas is rain and see this drought over.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST THU NOV 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
PESKY STRATUS DECK HAS SPREAD WESTWARD AND NOW IS AFFECTING ABOUT
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF BUT
SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE
COAST ALREADY.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM THE NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON OFFICE!

Happy Thanksgiving to you as well, Matt...