November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update for Severe Weather to our NW for this afternoon/evening:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK:

1/ EXPAND LOW TORNADO/SVR WIND PROBABILITIES NEWD INTO ERN KS.
2/ NARROW WIDTH OF SVR RISKS BY TRIMMING ON WRN/ERN FRINGES.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT THE UPR LOW HAS TURNED E OVER AZ/NRN MEXICO
AND IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
16Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER THE WCNTRL TX WITH A FRONT
ENE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL OK AND SERN KS. CONSIDERABLE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/TSTMS POLEWARD OF THE
FRONT MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS MAY IMPEDE NWD TRANSLATION OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN NCNTRL OK AND ERN KS. A NWWD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...OVER THE SERN TX PNHDL AND WCNTRL OK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTN.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS...HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED NWWD TO THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE LINGERING CONCERNS FOR MITIGATED DESTABILIZATION FROM NCNTRL
OK INTO KS OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN THIS AFTN...LATE MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING MOVING INTO W TX AND SWRN OK.
HERE...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH MLCAPES TO
2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. FARTHER NE...500-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED.

AS INCREASING ASCENT/ENHANCED MOISTENING/COOLING OF THE COLUMN
COMMENCES WITH APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL
FORM NEAR A TRIPLE POINT/N EDGE OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
TX PNHDL/WRN OK BORDER SWWD INTO THE SERN ROLLING PLAINS OF TX IN
THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KTS AND MAGNITUDE
OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SUPERCELL STORM MODE WILL BE LIKELY
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. 0-1KM SRH VALUES WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...250+
M2/S2...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL/SE ROLLING PLAINS INTO
SWRN/WCNTRL OK /00-03Z/.

ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND...BOTH NE AND SW INTO ERN KS AND NW/WCNTRL TX
LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING SLAB ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT A
TRANSITION CHIEFLY INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO ERN KS...CNTRL
OK AND CNTRL/NCNTRL TX. DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE NIGHT.

..RACY/GARNER.. 11/07/2011

[biggerbyte]

As stated earlier, the big concern will be central and north Texas. Around SE Texas, well we will see, but I would not hold my breathe that capping once again does not dampen our activity.

[Belmer]

The only 'person(s)' that can do anything about the warm weather (80s in November, which is fairly typical for Houston) is Mother Nature herself, and God Almighty!

[unome]

80s in Nov is not typical for Houston, though the record highs are in the 80s

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_nov

The only 'person(s)' that can do anything about the warm weather (80s in November, which is fairly typical for Houston) is Mother Nature herself, and God Almighty!

[srainhoutx]

I'm going to spend a little time during lunch giving some of my thoughts on what I think we may see ahead for the remainder of the month and into early December. Right now we are in a progressive pattern with a Western trough. That doesn't look to change anytime too soon. In fact we may start to see rains to our N as early as next week and increasing snows in the Rockies and Northern/Central Plains. Our area may not see much in the way of rain, but frequent 'cool fronts' will continue to slide by every 5-7 days. While I have posted the la la land GFS charts, there is something to the pattern for second half of November that leads to these swings. We could see a -NAO and a +PNA begin to develop which could bring some badly needed rains and cooler temps, but it will likely not last beyond early December.

Well looky here at all that cold air building on our side of the Arctic...that GFS la la land chart last week may have just been onto something after all...we will see...

[ejburas]

Srain, how is next weekend/early Thanksgiving week looking for the Front Range & Colorado Rockies? I know it's early, but I'm trying to figure out just how cold and how much snow I may be in for.

[srainhoutx]

Srain, how is next weekend/early Thanksgiving week looking for the Front Range & Colorado Rockies? I know it's early, but I'm trying to figure out just how cold and how much snow I may be in for.

Pattern looks active for the Rockies over the next couple of weeks. The trough should continue to remain out W in that general area should provide for storm systems ejecting out of the base of the trough. There's not a lot of cold coming down just yet, but the storm track suggests several Panhandle hooker type storms. The Higher elevations and even the front range should continue to have bouts of snowfall. Remind us again as we get closer and wxman57 will likely have some input as well as our other pros.

[ejburas]

Srain, how is next weekend/early Thanksgiving week looking for the Front Range & Colorado Rockies? I know it's early, but I'm trying to figure out just how cold and how much snow I may be in for.

Pattern looks active for the Rockies over the next couple of weeks. The trough should continue to remain out W in that general area should provide for storm systems ejecting out of the base of the trough. There's not a lot of cold coming down just yet, but the storm track suggests several Panhandle hooker type storms. The Higher elevations and even the front range should continue to have bouts of snowfall. Remind us again as we get closer and wxman57 will likely have some input as well as our other pros.

Thanks Srain! Yeah, I'll be driving, so any input on the Texas Panhandle will come in handy too.

[biggerbyte]

Storms and tornadoes well NW of our area. Oklahoma under the gun.

[unome]

wish we were getting some of that

[biggerbyte]

I hope folks in northern OK are paying attention. Radar shows a bow echo that will be effecting several counties. The wind will be very high across these areas.

[biggerbyte]

This tells the story. Look at those storms across OK.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... /SYS/COMP/

[wxman666]

New and rather large Tornado Watch until 5 AM for much of western and southern TX right down to the border. Looks like these suckers may backbuild! And 80 mph winds!? Sheesh!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0874.html

[Andrew]

Some dry air has been pulled up from the Pacific and is currently in place over central Texas but you can notice increase moisture levels behind it which should create a longer line of showers overnight:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12


CAPE looks pretty good currently (well a couple hours old) in Dallas:

[wxman666]

New Day 1 from SPC. Entire CWA in severe weather threat today...5% tornado probabilities for the majority of the area.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[biggerbyte]

Today, Tuesday is the one to watch. Watch for a line of storms to pass through the area. The possibility of some severe storms is there, especially north of I10 and increasing from there further north. Looking nasty for some. Be careful, folks.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, capping will be in play today and tonight. However, there is a possibility that it will erode. Should this happen, this line of storms most likely will reach severe levels. At any rate, straight line winds that are very strong are a good bet as these storms cross the area. Watch the radar and look for what looks like a bow in the line of storms. If you are in the path of that bow, you can expect these strong winds. Oklahoma has been dealing with this very thing. The've also had some tornado reports. In SE Texas, we could see small, brief tornadoes in the strongest activity.

[BoonDog]

What time is this set to roll through? Hopefully not rush hour

[srainhoutx]

Late afternoon arrival would seem to be the best guess for the squall line/front, if capping can erode enough. Updated SPC Outlook has our area in a Slight Risk:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2011

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE MID MS VALLEY...

A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY
WED MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OK INTO
MO/IL WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS TX/AR. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW FROM OK/TX INTO MUCH OF THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...OK/TX/LA...
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO
CENTRAL TX. THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO EASTERN OK/EAST TX.
POCKETS OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND INTENSIFY THE STORMS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...HELPING TO DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...AR/MO/IL...
FARTHER NORTH...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL
BE SLOWLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE STL AREA. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AR INTO
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. THIS THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND WHETHER A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
MASS CAN RETURN NORTHWARD. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
RISK IN THESE AREAS.

..HART/COHEN.. 11/08/2011

[unome]

strange how the tail of this system over TX seems to be twisting