October- Cool Mornings & Mild Days To End The Month

[wxman57]

I prefer the much warmer Euro and Canadian runs for next week.

Of course you do. Don't be silly. You've probably already plugged in that little heater under your desk...

Well, no, but I'm wearing my coat at my desk.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro ensemble look a bit chilly in the 192 hour range for late October. We will see...

[sambucol]

Srainhoutx, what are the temps looking like for our area with this next cold front? Thanks.

[Ptarmigan]

I prefer the much warmer Euro and Canadian runs for next week.

It's Fall. It is suppose to be cooler.

[srainhoutx]

Another glorious fall day ahead. We managed the low 40's in NW Harris County this morning. Rain chances are still in the picture for Sunday with a short wave diving SE into TX in the NW flow and the eyes turn to the NW as a trough digs in the Intermountain West. There is still chatter of the first Blue Norther of the year later next week and increased rain chances as well, but the still no real agreement with a cut off low to our W as the Euro suggests versus the progressive pattern the GFS is showing. We will see.

HPC:

OVERALL WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING BUILDS UPSTREAM OVER THE COASTAL
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPING LOW IN THE
GLFAK. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS FOR DEEPENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF IN
THE PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY DAY 6 WED. STRONG BUILDING PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NRN INTERMTN REGION AND NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS AND DIVES SOUTHWARD AS MID LEVEL HTS FALL ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CLASSIC TX BLUE NORTHER WILL
DRIVES SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS WED AND THURS WITH MUCH COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. TODAYS UPSLOPE CO FRONT RANGE SNOWFALL THREAT
DOESNT LOOK AS THREATENING AS YESTERDAYS PRIOR SOLUTION. WESTWARD
A MODERATE OFFSHORE/SANTA ANA EVENT CONTINUES TO SET UP AS THE
STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS AND SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES WED/THURS.

[wxman57]

I see that the Canadian, which had been in the Euro camp of holding the upper trof back next week, is now in the GFS camp of driving the front through earlier and stronger with little precip. Might be a bit chilly for our bike ride down to Discovery Green Saturday evening for the "Scream on the Green" Halloween event.

http://discoverygreen.com/scream-on-the-green/

[brazoria121]

what exactly is a tx blue northern? what does it consist of?

[srainhoutx]

what exactly is a tx blue northern? what does it consist of?

From weather.com:

BLUE NORTHER
Refers to a swift-moving cold frontal passage in the southern Great Plains, marked by a dark, blue-black sky with strong wintery winds from the northwest or north and temperatures that may drop 20°F to 30°F in a few minutes.
Related term: Texas Norther

[weatherguy425]

12z GFS is back to digging it a little deeper, looks like central Colorado.

[srainhoutx]

The theme this afternoon is to slow the front down a bit for late next week and to add a threat of some tropical mischief in the Western Caribbean...

HPC:

SOME FRONTAL CHANGE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO AFTN FINALS
WITH A SLOWER FRONT THRU THE SRN PLAINS AND APPROACHING THE
APPLCHNS DAY 7 THURS WITH ADDITIONAL ATTENTION MADE TO THE
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND THREAT TO THE WRN
CARRIBEAN.

[srainhoutx]

The models are in better agreement regarding the front next week. The idea of a Blue Norther have diminished as no cut off low is now depicted by any of the models and temps will not be any cooler than we experienced with the front this week. There may be a chance of some rain with this frontal boundary, but that remains to be seen. Halloween Weekend looks cool and dry at this point as we end the month of October.

[ticka1]

In other words - the models are clueless until 2 days out - maybe.

[biggerbyte]

Right on, ticka. Maybe three days. Fantasy conversation, otherwise.

[srainhoutx]

From the HGX afternoon discussion:

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THIS COMING WEEK. AFTER TRENDING WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THE LAST FEW RUNS...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT IS THE FASTEST OF THE
TWO AND CLOSEST TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WOULD CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE GONE WARM AND DRY FOR WEDNESDAY`S FORECAST AS A RESULT. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN OVERALL. GIVEN
THE STRONG LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE (PWS 1.2-1.4 INCHES)...EXPECT A
ROUND OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BLANKETED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. THE DEEPEST/SLOWEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A
GOOD WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN BUT NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
SOLUTION YET. IN THE HWO...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT FOR THURSDAY SINCE THIS APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY
REMAINING IN THE 60S IF THERE IS CLOUDS/RAIN. DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS SE TX.

[Katdaddy]

A nice decent weekend with temps in the 80s for highs and 60s for the lows. Now if we could get rid the massive swarm of skeeters.

[sleetstorm]

Does anyone know why certain types of trees, for example: pine trees and certain oak trees are more susceptable to dying than other types are?

No doubt that Mayor Anise Parker is probably getting closer to raising the water restriction to stage 3.

[srainhoutx]

There is still a chance for showers and perhaps some isolated thunder to the N of the Houston Metro area tomorrow. The SPC has a Slight Risk for parts of S/SE OK and N TX for tonight. As for the next cold front. Timing issues still seem to be the theme and just how much moisture will fall. The best guess would be a frontal passage sometime on Thursday. There still remains a chance of rain (probably near the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range and maybe some isolated higher amounts if the front is later in the day). The air behind the front is of Canadian/modified Arctic nature, so it will cool off lending to a great weekend for next week with dry conditions. There is even some mention of the S word for the front ranges of the Rockies in CO and NM and even parts of the Panhandle. We will see about that though. Enjoy the weekend!

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Next strong cold front forecast for the middle to end of this week with a better chance of rainfall.

Passage of a strong short wave over NE TX yesterday with damaging thunderstorms over the DFW area Saturday night has left behind weak ridging in its wake. Weak southerly flow continues to bring muggy Gulf air mass inland across the region with shallow ground fog in some areas this morning. This will remain the story through early Wednesday before the next upper level trough and cold front move across the state in a now entrenched fall pattern.

Upper air pattern will amplify again allowing a cold Canadian air mass to surge southward down the Rockies the middle of this week reaching TX Wednesday. Timing of the advancement of this cold front and the upper trough remains question with the ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET models all showing a slower more cut-off upper level trough with the front due into SE TX Thursday evening compared to the NAM which has the fastest more progressive less cut-off solution with the front to the coast late Wednesday and the GFS showing an in between solution early Thursday. Given the type of cold air mass would tend to favor the NAM with the actual front bleeding southward ahead of the upper trough as cold air masses tend to advance southward quicker than models suggest. However I am leaning toward the slower ejection of the upper trough more into Thursday which spells a period of post frontal clouds and rainfall as warm moist Gulf air is lifted over the shallow cold air mass. Timing of the actual front is also difficult, but would expect a passage sometime Thursday across the area.

Most rainfall looks to be focused behind the front in the region of post frontal isentropic lift as the upper trough advances into the region Thursday/Thursday night. Should the NAM solution be more correct, there would be little post frontal rainfall. Will fine tune rain amounts over the next few days, but a widespread .25 to .75 of an inch appears possible with this system.

Other big headline will be the cold air with this trough with highs falling on Thursday and highs on Friday likely remaining in the low to mid 60’s. With skies clearing and winds calming Friday night lows Saturday morning will likely fall into the lower 40’s and possibly upper 30’s.

Fire Weather:
No major fire weather concerns this period as RH remains high and wind light. Frontal passage on Thursday will bring strong north winds, but wetting rainfall looks possible and if rains occur no fire weather concerns are expected. Very dry air mass will build into the region next weekend, but winds should be light.

[srainhoutx]

The 'Cool Front" is scheduled to arrive Thursday morning with only light rain and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder and that will be about it for this front. Interestingly the Euro and GFS are at polar opposites regarding later in the weekend/earlier next week, though. The Euro shows a big cut off low right over head and the GFS shows a Ridge. Guess which one will be more correct as we head into Halloween/November...

[biggerbyte]

LOL

Yet another lesson in long range forecasting. NWS has moved from a good chance of rain and highs in the 60s, to little rain with highs in the 70s with this front. Harold Taft's two to three day window philosophy will never die. We'll see about post frontal rainfall in another day or two.