September Weather Discussion: this year's Autumn in Texas?

[TexasBreeze]

Heaviest rain i've seen in months!:)

[wxman57]

Rain in SW Houston (Westbury). About 0.4" so far.

[mckinne63]

Another brief shower in Stafford, even heard some thunder. Forgot what that sounded like. Looks like it is clearing now though. We need more than 10 minutes. Please!

[wxman666]

Looks like south central TX is getting slammed....esp. near/in San Antonio. Looks like those clusters are training.

[tireman4]

Still nothing in Humble. Nada...

[ticka1]

Still nothing in Humble. Nada...

Don't feel bad nothing here in Mont Belvieu had three sprinkles and that was it..

[srainhoutx]

Hang in there gang. HGX lead forecaster 35 issued one of the more promising looking outlooks we've seen in a very long time. Fingers crossed...

[mckinne63]

Staring out my window, hoping for more. Would attach a pic but not sure how to do it. Wet pavement is a beautiful site.

[wxman57]

About 0.9" so far and more rain on the way in SW Houston.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

TXZ199-213-172215-
HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-
422 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN HARRIS AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...

AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A 44 MPH WIND GUST AT BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PORTER...LAKE CONROE
DAM...WOODLOCH...THE WOODLANDS...SPRING...HUMBLE...CONROE AND CHATEAU
WOODS.

[ticka1]

Hang in there gang. HGX lead forecaster 35 issued one of the more promising looking outlooks we've seen in a very long time. Fingers crossed...

I washed my Avalanche today. That's why its going to rain.

What did the HGX lead forecaster say?

[biggerbyte]

What a wonderful surprise. Actually, there were signs from yesterday and last night out west and south that a change might be in the works for us. Today we had the gunpowder and the match. Porter got some good rains this evening. Now that things are moistened up a bit again, it will be much easier to see some more of the wet stuff over the coming days. I'd say we got better than just a shower for some, but some others likely are still dry. Not to despair. Things are looking better for most to get some sort of rainfall before next weeks end. This is the something talked about a few days ago we were hoping for.

Enjoy!

[kennethb]

Congrats!!!! And may more rain come your way.

[Ptarmigan]

Nice to see rain. Rain has been a real luxury. Welcome rain!

[tireman4]

Still nothing in Humble. Nada...

As of 6:32 PM, no rain in Humble. Nada. Zilch. Kaput. Maybe tonight.

[ticka1]

is the rain going to miss houston and move offshore?

[srainhoutx]

The flow remains from the SW and more disturbances are riding along that flow from old Mexico. We should remain in a favorable pattern until some drying begins as the Rockies trough swings by around Tuesday. The weak short wave to our SW was fairly well modeled by the WRF which depicted Coastal areas would see overnight light rains. The next in a series of upper air disturbances is taking shape just SW of De Rio. Deep tropical moisture in now in place across S Central/SE TX and all that will be needed is a trigger. Tomorrow could become rather active with T storms beginning mid morning and lasting throughout the day. Hopefully there will be more 'haves' than 'have nots' (pardon my grammer) tomorrow. Fingers crossed!

[unome]

I washed my Avalanche today. That's why its going to rain.

What did the HGX lead forecaster say?

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TX GENERATING GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TX WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTN. BOTH HOUSTON/IAH AND HOUSTON/HOU HAD THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN TWO WEEKS. THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LOOK GOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SET UP A FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE REGIME ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH EAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE HAS DEEPENED FURTHER THIS AFTN WITH GPSMET DATA SHOWING PWS RANGING FROM 1.7 INCHES NORTH TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. PWS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SUNDAY IN THE 2.0-2.2 INCH RANGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING TONIGHT. THE ONLY REASON POPS WERE NOT RAISED ABOVE 40S SUNDAY IS BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. 12Z RUN OF THE 4KM NMM-WRF SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. IF CLOUDS/PRECIP PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY THEN MAX TEMPS COULD STAY IN THE 80S. MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO LOWER SOMEWHAT MONDAY (PWS 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD BE PRESENT THIS DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING UNCAPPED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 80S. BLANKETED 40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT BEHIND WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS DIFFER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF DRYING THINGS OUT MORE. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SCOURED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS PERIOD WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENING OVER THE MS VALLEY MIDWEEK WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAR WEST AND TOO CUTOFF WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION MORE BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. THE FROPA WILL GIVE SE TX YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO SE TX FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS DROP ENOUGH BY SATURDAY TO WARRANT MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S EVEN WITH SUNSHINE.

35

[srainhoutx]

Storms are already popping this morning. In fact, we are getting rumbles of thunder at this hour in Western/NW Harris County. It looks like the WRF is doing a fairly good job handling the situation and that meso model suggests an active couple of days...

[srainhoutx]

Updated SPC Convective Outlook for our neighbors in Central and N TX...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN EXTREME SW MO/NW AR SWWD TO
CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
DAYBREAK WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FULL-LATITUDE UPR TROUGH
SITUATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES.
STRONGEST OF SUCH DISTURBANCES WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE LWR/MID-MS RVR VLY REGION BY
LATE TONIGHT. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1011 MB LOW SW OF KICT WITH
A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT SEWD INTO THE LWR MS RVR VLY. A CDFNT
WAS GAINING STRENGTH ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL. THE LOW WILL
MIGRATE NEWD INTO ERN KS THIS AFTN WHILE WITH A WRMFNT DEVELOPING
ENE TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE CDFNT WILL SWEEP ESE INTO SW MO...ERN OK
AND CNTRL TX BY SUNSET...AND THE LWR OH VLY...CNTRL AR...TX HILL
COUNTRY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS...SOME
PSBLY SVR THIS AFTN/EVE.

...EXTREME SW MO/NW AR SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM ERN
PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MS VLY SWWD INTO N TX. ACTIVITY
APPEARS LARGELY TIED TO MID/LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN A
BROAD SWLY H85-H7 JET AXIS...FAVORING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT LOCATED JUST N OF THE RED RVR
VLY/ARKLATEX REGIONS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS ENE
TOWARD THE MID/LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND REMAIN SUB-SVR.

TO THE W...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAVORABLY MOIST AHEAD OF THE APCHG
CDFNT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LWR-MID 60S FROM EXTREME SW MO SWWD
INTO CNTRL TX. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES 7-7.5 DEG C PER KM/COOLING MID-LVL
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE CDFNT THIS AFTN. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PASS LARGELY
N OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/CYCLONIC
CURVATURE WILL REACH AS FAR S AS NRN/CNTRL TX AND AID IN MID TO LATE
AFTN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SW MO...ERN OK INTO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX.

WLY H5 FLOW OF 30-35 KTS/STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE RED RVR VLY WHERE MULTICELL STORMS MAY
ACHIEVE BRIEF SUPERCELL CHARACTER. DESPITE WEAKER FLOW FARTHER
S...MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT PULSE
STG-SVR MULTICELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS/LINEAR
SEGMENTS.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS AMID
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS THIS EVE. FARTHER S...STORMS
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING
CDFNT. IN ALL AREAS...THE SVR THREATS WILL DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
EVENING.

..RACY/COHEN.. 09/18/2011