2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[Ptarmigan]

GFS in 11 days has a major hurricane on Houston's doorstep. I can't put much stock on it.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS
ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

2. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/STEWART

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROATAN
HONDURAS.

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

2. A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if we see Greek letters like in 2005 this season. We already have 8 named storms and likely Irene soon.

[redneckweather]

I'm paying attention Ed. Keep the info coming.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests we may be headed toward and active period in the tropics...

[srainhoutx]

The ensemble mean for the GFS and Euro are not as sharp with the East Coast trough. My hunch is the pattern will be a bit more conducive for activity in the Western Caribbean as we head into September, for what it's worth.

[srainhoutx]

This is just a 'teaser' post, but the GFS has been rather insistent on developing a storm in the Caribbean in the long range and heading that disturbance W to WNW in the la la land range...my hunch is we have not seen the last of tropical troubles this year...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a Bay of Campeche disturbance begins to develop in the mid range...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a Caribbean disturbance in the long range...

[srainhoutx]

The over night guidance (GFS and Euro) suggest two more storms in the next week or two affecting the Gulf and Caribbean. The Gulf looks rather unsettled behind Lee and as the frontal boundary stalls out. There is a slightly more favorable pattern developing with a slight MJO pulse or Kelvin wave beginning to show up, so activity may well get a boost has we head deeper into September. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Update re: Gulf development later this week/early next week...

FINALLY OVER THE GULF
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER TROPICAL FEATURE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GEFS ENSEMBLES AND SOME OTHER
WEAKER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF. CURRENTLY WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK SPOT LOW IN THE SWRN GULF AS PER YDAYS COORDINATION. THE 06Z
GFS HAS AT LEAST HELD/TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SW ACROSS THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS RUN.

[ticka1]

i will believe it when it happens. TS Lee showed how the models can be so wrong in the beginning. I think whatever develops will not head towards texas but away from the hot/dry texas.

[perk]

I will not even get excited about this supposedly upcoming developement.With these troughs already coming down the chance of a system getting to southeast Texas is remote.I've been bummed for the last time.

[srainhoutx]

While the GFS may just be spinning up some fantasy storm in the Bay of Campeche after a frontal boundary sags down into the Gulf, it does remain a bit consistent so it will be worth watching...

[rnmm]

I am too not getting hopeful for rain anymore, however that is not stopping me to pray for it. Another grass fire popped up in the town I went to high school in, 2 miles from a friends home, this in itself is enough to make me continue to pray. I thought once troughs started coming down, the chance for our area to see anything tropical dwindled...that still confuses me, and if our winter is going to be dry too, well I don't even want to think about it to be honest!

[Snowman]

This is the last time i get my hopes up too. I will believe rain when i physically see it falling from the sky.

[South_Texas_Storms]

From this morning's Houston National Weather Service morning discussion: "DID YOU KNOW THAT THE NWS HAS NOT ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING SINCE SEPT 7 2010? IT HAS BEEN A VERY
DRY 12 MONTHS." All I got to say is wow. This drought makes me very depressed. I really hope it ends soon.

[djjordan]

I've forgotten what a Flash Flood Watch/Warning means LOL

[wxman57]

I don't "buy" that GFS storm in the BoC / SW Gulf. It's a common GFS error when a cold front reaches the BoC - it tries to spin something up down there.