Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[tireman4]

A blizzard will end the drought I'm calling it!

SNOWMODE! SNOWMODE!..YES!!

[South_Texas_Storms]

FWIW, 18z GFS shifted a bit left and it gives SE TX more rainfall. Of course it all depends on if the western side of Lee finally gets some convection.

[srainhoutx]

I just saw Doc on KHOU. It's good to know that we can count on his experience whenever tropical troubles are in the Gulf.

[BoonDog]

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/7895 ... 651470.jpg

New models are out!

[tireman4]

I just saw Doc on KHOU. It's good to know that we can count on his experience whenever tropical troubles are in the Gulf.

DOC IS THE MAN!!!

From a huge fan for over 30 years of Dr Neil Frank

[mckinne63]

Doc is the best! I really miss him and his updates. All others on TV pale in comparison. He's not bringing us any rain though is he?

[mckinne63]

A blizzard will end the drought I'm calling it!

SNOWMODE! SNOWMODE!..YES!!

Yes, love me some snow! Nothing like making a snow angel in Texas. I'm originally from Wisconsin so I know a thing or two about making snow angels.

[kellybell4770]

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/7895 ... 651470.jpg

New models are out!

bahahahahahaha

[skidog38]

and now it begins

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 00Z NAM wobbles Lee inland in SW Louisiana just S of Lake Charles.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 91.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND
GUST TO 41 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW
ORLEANS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 1000 MB...29.53
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[desiredwxgd]

LCH AFD Snippet:

HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TS LEE THIS EVENING ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE CENTER AS IT APPEARS TO BE RE-LOCATING
WITH EACH PASS. STILL IT IS A TAD FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATES TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PW UP TO 2.36 THIS
EVENING. DESPITE THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ADVANCING SLOWLY TO
THE WEST AND THIS COULD BE THE DRY AIR MOVING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF LEE.

OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

[maroondreams]

Am i the only one getting a little more depressed everytime I check updates on this thing?

[rnmm]

Am i the only one getting a little more depressed everytime I check updates on this thing?

No you are not alone! But I am trying hard to keep the faith that one day soon we will get some much needed and beneficial rain!

[skidog38]

pocket about to collapse

[Belmer]

Texas is getting back at Lee. Here they had predicted a week ago that the 'Tropical Disturbance' would more than likely come to Texas, as 80% of the models agreed with that. With only a few going to LA. Well now that "Lee" has teased TX in this severe drought we're in, TX is going to do everything it can to tear the storm up and bring as much dry air into it as it can. TX is going to try and kill this storm. How successful will TX's dry air be? We'll see.

[BoonDog]

man all of that much needed rain so close.....I can't watch the radar anymore

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE STRENGTHENING...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR
7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES WELL INLAND OVER LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY AN OIL
RIG JUST SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
58 MPH AND A GUST TO 67 MPH AT 200 FEET ELEVATION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM
OIL RIGS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. A STORM
SURGE OF NEAR 4 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA...AND A SURGE HEIGHT OF 2.4 FEET WAS REPORTED AT GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

First morning visible image shows the exposed center just SE of Vermillion Bay...

[cajun]

Back in Lafayette for the weekend - rain and gusty winds, but no flooding reported - wish I could carry this back to Spring!!!!!!