Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[biggerbyte]

Forget the models, guys and gals, and watch this instead:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... /SYS/COMP/

[Andrew]

We have warnings!:

000
WTNT23 KNHC 012340
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
0000 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 91.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI: The little ball of convection to the left near 26N/91W is just SE of the center that RECO found. If you notice this is below the latitude of Brownsville currently. This has some distance to travel NW to be near the Louisiana Coast...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[leahpeah]

That is the funkiest cone I have ever seen!

[TXStormjg]

That is the funkiest cone I have ever seen!

It looks like one of those cartoon bubbles.....

[jgreak]

We are in the cone...

[Ptarmigan]

Texas is still in the cone, so don't focus on the center path.

[ticka1]

I am in the cone. Chambers County - east side of Houston. wonder if the cone will shift west any? Anyone have any thoughts speculation - wishcasting???

[singlemom]

I'm way back on page 22\23 and catching up on the day's posts. Guys, I want to stop and say "thanks" for being one of (if not) the best and coolest weather forums out there. I swore earlier today that I was just going to stop watching the models and reading discussions as it's kinda like watching the Stock Market:

"Aaaaaaaugh!" "Awww, maaaan!" "Auuuuuugh!" "Awwww, maaaaan!!!!"

So, thanks for the great information and cool heads. Please, here's hoping we get any rain out of this.

[Katdaddy]

I need rain Ticka! Tough call but currently the W side of TD 13 does not have much convection tonight. If it stays that way we may not see much moisture however much can change over the next few days. Still must watch, wait, and see for the next day or so.

[Ptarmigan]

I need rain Ticka! Tough call but currently the W side of TD 13 does not have much convection tonight. If it stays that way we may not see much moisture however much can change over the next few days. Still must watch, wait, and see for the next day or so.

I don't put a lot of stock on those models. They can be right and wrong.

[tireman4]

That is it. I am done. I am in Fall Mode...Wait, this is the wrong thread. Dadgummit, my brain is fried from the Summer. The models. Yeah, they are a mess. That cone is like a comma shape. Weird.

[jeff]

I would have bet the track would have looked far different at 1000am this morning.

[ticka1]

I would have bet the track would have looked far different at 1000am this morning.

what do you mean by that jeff? how different?

[Andrew]

I'm way back on page 22\23 and catching up on the day's posts. Guys, I want to stop and say "thanks" for being one of (if not) the best and coolest weather forums out there. I swore earlier today that I was just going to stop watching the models and reading discussions as it's kinda like watching the Stock Market:

"Aaaaaaaugh!" "Awww, maaaan!" "Auuuuuugh!" "Awwww, maaaaan!!!!"

So, thanks for the great information and cool heads. Please, here's hoping we get any rain out of this.

No problemo! That is why we are here.

Anyways I think it is very possible that currently TD 13 is consolidating and organizing further to the south. Lets watch and see if this continues.

[jeff]

18Z GFDL and HWRF have trended back west...GFDL shows a period of TS force winds along the TX coast W/SW of the center.

[tireman4]

Jeff,

How much stock do you put in the HWRF? Is it still too experimental? Thanks for taking our questions

[jeff]

I would have bet the track would have looked far different at 1000am this morning.

what do you mean by that jeff? how different?

I think NHC would of had it heading SW down the TX coast...but so much has changed since then.

[jeff]

Jeff,

How much stock do you put in the HWRF? Is it still too experimental? Thanks for taking our questions

Not much as it has seemed to be a right and strong outlier so far this season. But the latest GFDL and HWRF and nearly on top of each other which does build in some confidence. Both do the loop south thing.