Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[kellybell4770]

Looks like 94L has an excellent shot of being Sub-Tropical Storm Lee, leaving the much cooler and spicy Latina sounding name 'Maria' for a possible Anita redux.


My wife is a spicy Latina. Its the way I roll.

Ed you crack me up

[srainhoutx]

Just a bit if interest from the NHC concerning 93L...nice to see G-IV missions on tap...

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 011650 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1250 PM EDT THU 01 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-093 AMENDMENT....FOR TEAL NUMBERS

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF 0F MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 02/12Z,18Z                 A. 03/00Z
       B. AFXXX 03HHA CYCLONE        B. NOAA9 04HHA CYCLONE
       C. 02/11Z                     C. 03/1730Z
       D. 29.2N 91.5W                F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       E. 02/1130Z TO 02/18Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42        FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 76
       A. 03/00Z                     A. 03/00Z,06Z
       B. NOAA2 05HHA CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 06HHA CYCLONE
       C. 02/20Z                     C. 02/23Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           D. 28.5N 92.0W
                                     E. 02/2320Z TO 03/06Z
                                     F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49         FLIGHT SIX - NOAA 43
       A. 03/12Z                     A. 03/12Z
       B. NOAA9 07HHA CYCLONE        B. NOAA3 08HHA CYCLONE
       C. 03/0530Z                   C. 03/08Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT SEVEN - TEAL 77
       A. 03/11Z-15Z - BUOY DROP
       B. AFXXX 09HHA CYCLONE
       C. 03/1030Z
       F. SFC TO 5,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES,
       G-IV AND P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS. A SECOND BUOY
       DROP MISSION ON THE 4TH.

[randybpt]

Still looks like we.will miss out on the heavy rain what a shame Louisiana looks to get a drought busting rainfall this.weekend
.

[matthouston]

Can we save the negativity for if/when this thing actually misses us? Some of us would like to stay hopeful and positive. You guys are bringing me down.

[randybpt]

Its not being negative its being realistic and going by model data and forecast. New Orleans is expecting flooding rains. 15 inches possible.

[srainhoutx]

Up to 80% in the 2 PM EDT TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE LOUISIANA COAST IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[unome]

recon http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KWBC/

can they close it off & do we have Lee ?

[djjordan]

This system is going to be around all weekend and into next week ..... While N.O. is bracing for some bigtime rainfall, that does not mean we aren't going to get in on the action. BTW if rainshowers today popping up in our CWA isn't a foretell of what's to come, I don't know what is. C'mon peeps ....stay positive we have alot of weather watching to do for the next several days.

[cristina99]

I wish there was a "like" button. I guess my mom is being realistic when she says she knows what's going to happen - it will go into LA and we won't get a drop. I like to stay hopeful for some rain. My plants have all died. And the blue sky / sun / heat is driving me crazy - so much I want to cry. The models I saw this morning with David Paul look like a pre-schooler drew them; they were all over the place. IF it goes into LA, just MAYBE it would swing around and hit us.

[Rip76]

Euro - East

[Bluefalcon]

Yes...stay positive. With the exception of HWRF...all the early and late cycle models bring whatever is going to form NWward towards the TX/LA boarder, and then set around thru the 48 to 96 hr time frame. It's way to early, but I'm inclined to believe that the 1st part of that scenario is going to happen; after that who knows. That being said...I'm still heading to Freeport this weekend. If I don't get any beach time because of rain....I'll take it and be happy.

[Snowman]

Euro - East

well that is awful news

[vci_guy2003]

Can someone post the spaghetti models? Does 'east' mean it's going to move inland east of us, or just initiate east?

[djjordan]

As Wxman posted on Storm2k a moment ago ....take a look at 26.1N 91W .... evidence of a LLC exists and I am starting to see some wrap around convection attempting to fire on the north quadrant right now.

BTW getting a short but nice tropical downpour at my house at this time

[djmike]

Thats a wrap! High and dry for TX this coming weekend! Freakin Euro...

[djjordan]

Thats a wrap! High and dry for TX this coming weekend! Freakin Euro...

\

Not sure why you would say that's a wrap .... not even close ..... You have a better chance in Beaumont than we do in the Houston area of getting a significant impact. Don't be a model hugger .... take a look at the bigger picture. I am not buying into this Euro run .... I am however buying into the Euro runs I saw a few days ago as I am certain that this trough will not pick this system up.

[djmike]

Thats a wrap! High and dry for TX this coming weekend! Freakin Euro...

\

Not sure why you would say that's a wrap .... not even close ..... You have a better chance in Beaumont than we do in the Houston area of getting a significant impact. Don't be a model hugger .... take a look at the bigger picture. I am not buying into this Euro run .... I am however buying into the Euro runs I saw a few days ago as I am certain that this trough will not pick this system up.

Im trying to keep my hopes up as best I can...These models are driving me to drink! As im sure its driving everyone else insane aswell..I guess im just really discouraged that all that rain that LA is going to get needs to be here in the heart of TX! I just have a feeling when the LLC forms, all models will call it off for TX... Just my gut feeling.

[srainhoutx]

I'll be waiting for sampling data and upper air data from the RECON missions before I 'toss in the towel' on 93L. There is still a lot of uncertainty in my mind and my take is that it is better to error on the side of caution regarding any potential stalling storm this close to our neck of the wood, for what it's worth.

[srainhoutx]

RECON is finding W winds (wind shift) near 26N/91W

[djmike]

RECON is finding W winds (wind shift) near 26N/91W

What does that mean?