August Weather Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Experts Say World Will Feel Record Texas Drought
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa ... 71468.html

Our drought is going to hurt our wallet in the form of higher food prices.

[jeff]

5.1 billion in losses so far with 2.2 billion in corn losses. Over 90% of the TX corn crop this year failed. Cattle losses are quickly mounting given the lack of drinking water, ranchers have no choice but to sell them off or let them die.

[biggerbyte]

Not only that.. Some say this drought could last well into next spring. Pardon the pun, but I think they are all wet.

[biggerbyte]

This has to end real soon or the south is doomed on so many levels.

[Ptarmigan]

This has to end real soon or the south is doomed on so many levels.

We all end up paying.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail form Jeff:

The streak continues on as BUSH IAH has now gone 17 days at or above 100 degrees.

Massive upper ridge centered over W TX this morning will weaken a little over the next 24-38 hours allowing slightly higher moisture levels and slightly lower temperatures to be felt over SE TX, especially east of I-45. Still expecting to reach 100 or above each afternoon given how quickly the dry ground is heating up each day. At least a slight chance of rain (10-20%) will be possible along the seabreeze and E of I-45 where subsidence from the ridge will be weakest and moisture greatest. Otherwise no significant change through the middle of next week.

Middle-End of Next Week:
Some hope (maybe) in the far range as the ridge over TX will build into the Rockies early next week allowing an increasingly northerly flow to develop over the region. GFS and ECMWF forecast the formation of lower heights from eastern TX toward FL, but differ on the location and intensity of this downstream trough. Several models show a tropical system (current wave in the central Atlantic) moving W to WNW and being located somewhere in the northern Caribbean or SW Atlantic late next week. Pattern may at least be a little more favorable for a few showers after the middle of next week, while we keep an eye toward the tropics in case a few of the models showing the sub-tropical ridge building back westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is correct possibly allowing any tropical system to track into the Gulf.

Note: At noon on 8-16-11 the City of Houston began utilizing their water rights on Lake Conroe requesting the release of 50 billion gallons of water per day to help stabilize Lake Houston’s rapid decline. Over the next few days this release will be increased to 150 billion gallons. On average this release coupled with the current evaporation rates will result in a 5-6 inch decline in the water level on Lake Conroe each week.

Lake Somerville continues a rapid decline with a loss of 14% of its capacity in the last 3 weeks and is now below 50% of its capacity.

Lake Levels:

Lake Houston: -5.0 ft (81% capacity)
Lake Conroe: -4.05 ft (82% capacity)
Lake Texana: -9.62 ft (52% capacity)
Lake Somerville: -8.06 ft (49% capacity)
Lake Travis: -44.5 ft (43% capacity)

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensembles continue to advertise a change in the pattern and opening the door to some potential tropical mischief...

[biggerbyte]

KSHV radar shows some hope with rain and an outflow boundary heading in this general direction. Will it hold up to make it this far? We'll see.

In the meantime, the general Conroe area has a special weather statement out for them. Some action is already in some of the area. Sat. loops show the ridge has indeed moved off enough to allow some activity to move in from the northeast.

[Ptarmigan]

The Euro ensembles continue to advertise a change in the pattern and opening the door to some potential tropical mischief...

Should be interesting. We could use the rain. So does this mean Adios Cockroach Ridge?

[BoonDog]

8:00pm and im reading 99 degrees crazy

[sleetstorm]

Texas is gradually starting to feel like one of the deserts in the southwest, in my opinion.

[unome]

an interesting paragraph from a previous discussion on HGX:

CLIMATE...
UPDATED THE DROUGHT STATEMENT (DGTHGX) THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
DEFICITS RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 INCHES SINCE LAST OCTOBER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE 104 AT IAH AND 105 AT CLL. THIS IS THE
18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 100 DEGREE HEAT AND THE 29TH DAY OF THE
SUMMER WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR THE CITY
OF HOUSTON. DID YOU KNOW THAT HOUSTON HAS HAD 40 DAYS THIS SUMMER WITH
THE TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE 99 DEGREES? THIS TIES 1980 WITH 40
DAYS AT OR ABOVE 99 DEGREES. ALSO THE 18 100 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST
TIES THE MOST 100 DEGREE DAYS IN A MONTH (JULY 1980). DID YOU KNOW
THAT HOUSTON HAS HAD 21 MORNINGS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80 DEGREES IN 2011? THIS TIES FOR THE THIRD MOST (1963) IN CITY
HISTORY. ONLY 1962 (26) AND 1964 (25) HAD MORE. 43

[CaliforniaSux]

It's just gotta end. Someone give me some hope. I see some clouds build off in the distance, just out of reach!

[randybpt]

Still no hope in sight, this may go down as the costliest natural disaster in Texas history. You can look at GFS 15 day no rain. I for don't wish for a hurricane then you have the damage cost on top of drought. Not to mention a hurricane wouldn't put a dent in the drought we need an Allyson type event which is not likely. Ok I thoroughly just depressed my self worse. Goodbye

[texoz]

Austin is at 100 for 100. Meaning, our average high for the last 100 days is 100+ degrees.

Austin averages 12 days at or above 100 degrees per year.

[randybpt]

Wow to put that in perspective texoz that is almost 1/3 of the year averaging 100 that is crazy. Everyone keeps saying. Y the end of the month some relief well guess what we have 10 days til September someone.show me where the relief is coming. There is nothing in the tropics that will give us relief and if you notice no waves exiting Africa.

[Katdaddy]

It would be nice if the slow moving outflow boundary in NE Texas made its way into N portions of SE TX and fired off some storms however I do not have much hope.

[Ptarmigan]

Heat waves and droughts are the deadliest weather events. More deadlier than hurricanes, tornadoes, lightning, and floods combined.

Heat Wave
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave

Dying Alone
http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chic ... 213in.html

[sleetstorm]

Baytown still has yet to make it to the century mark this afternoon. 97ºF is the current temperature.

[tireman4]

All is right with the Houston Area. The streak continues...

AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...AND THE STREAK CONTINUES...

.DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH TCU FROM THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AREA...KIAH HAS REACHED
101 AT 3PM FOR THE MAX TEMP SO FAR. THIS TIES THE ALL TIME 1980
MARK OF 32 DAYS OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
IT ALSO MEANS THAT EVERY DAY SO FAR IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST KIAH
HAS HAD A MAX TEMP OF 100 DEGREES OR MORE. A FEW ISO TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM HOBBY AIRPORT TO WHARTON.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY PULSE UP AND DOWN MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS 20 POPS FOR ISO ACTIVITY WHICH LOOKS ON
TRACK. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NE IS WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF SE TX. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1