Pattern Change!!!

[randybpt]

OK, all you pro Mets and novices what does the global models look like for next few weeks. Sure is quiet on here surely this High can't control all summer.

[tireman4]

Ok, I am total novice, but from what I read, this is around for 15 days ( 100 + temperatures, there will be some moderating ..ie 99 or 98, but still wickedly hot) . Larry Cosgrove thinks this pattern will hang around until Labor Day. I am inclined to believe him. It is going to take something big ( read..front big...strong front) to dislodge it. Me, I am thinking it could be late September before we really see relief. Larry Cosgrove:

The big "Heat Ridge From Hell" is the dominant factor in this forecast. Honestly, this anomalous subtropical high is likely to continue over the south central U.S. (and occasionally points north and eastward) into the Labor Day weekend. I see no prominent breach or weakness in the ridge complex through the next 16 days (length of time covered by the computer models). The prospect of being "saved" by a tropical cyclone appears to be slim and none (most of the outlooks take Tropical Storm Emily through the Greater Antilles and then out into the open Atlantic Ocean). As for getting the "normal" seabreeze and diurnal convection, fat chance with the strong stable presence of the heat ridge.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ust-2-2011

[BoonDog]

depressing isn't it

[jeff]

The historic drought and heat go hand in hand and it is either going to take a major tropical system or Fall cold fronts to finally break this pattern. The dry ground can and is producing positive feedback against the atmosphere and in turn allows the low level temperature to warm quickly each day which in turn dries the ground and vegetation even more...and the cycle continues until rain falls over a wide area to break the pattern. That is how droughts become so entrenched...to break it you need enough widespread rain to really wet the ground and green up the vegetation and help add moisture back into the low levels from evapotranspiration.

History of such past events in TX usually come to an end with a tropical system and it is usually more than a tropical storm more likely a hurricane. With that said there is one past major drought (current drought of record...1950's) that was a major multi-year drought and it is possible we are heading into such an event with our current drought which really started the day after Hurricane Ike (the last 3 years have all featured below normal rainfall), but the last 6 months have been off the charts. In fact it would have to rain 4.92 inches right now to knock Houston out of the current driest Feb-July period ever recorded....that is an amazing record. The 181 days without an inch of rainfall in Houston is also approaching the record of 192 days in 1917-1918, so we are nearing or breaking records of a past most severe droughts.

We will need an extended period of wet weather to end this drought. On average a tropical system could produce 10-15 inches of rainfall, but most areas in SE TX are 20-30 inches behind normal since last October, so one tropical system will not likely end the drought...it would greatly help however.

On a side note I measured a 7 inch crack in the soil yesterday in Fort Bend County next to a cotton field that the cotton was only about 1.5 feet high. I decided to measure downward just to see and never hit ground when the measuring tape stopped at 25 feet. I tried it 3 other times in 3 different cracks and never reached ground...the damage this drought is doing will not fully be done for years to come and I suspect that the impacts will linger for years. I was asked to do a presentation at a conference in early June on the drought and did a little research on past TX weather and some of the result were shocking. In fact what we are going through right now was much more common pre 1960 and in the past 40 year or so we have actually seen a wealth of rainfall especially in the spring months that TX did not have pre 1960. It is very possible that this is closer to the real TX weather than what we have become use to over the past 40 years...and if so where multi-year severe dryness is more probable then we are going to be in for some tough decisions when it comes to water supply.

[djmike]

Pattern change coming for SETX according to Larry Cosgrove and HURRICANE IRENE coming late this weekend into early Sept!!

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... st-22-2011

Brrrr..... Let's pray this comes to reality! My a/c needs a break!

[wxman57]

My coworker, the long-range expert, is saying hotter later this week, not cooler. Let's see if we can go 31 for 31 for 100 deg days in August!

[Andrew]

My coworker, the long-range expert, is saying hotter later this week, not cooler. Let's see if we can go 31 for 31 for 100 deg days in August!

Oh yea!!!! We are going to set a record that will be hard to break in the years to come.

[redneckweather]

My coworker, the long-range expert, is saying hotter later this week, not cooler. Let's see if we can go 31 for 31 for 100 deg days in August!

You're are ruthless bro, straight up ruthless!!!

[Ptarmigan]

My coworker, the long-range expert, is saying hotter later this week, not cooler. Let's see if we can go 31 for 31 for 100 deg days in August!

I want 31 days of 32 degree or below days. Must get my RAID cans to kill that Cockroach Ridge.