I really hope everyone is paying attention. Looks like what I've been preaching as a possibility is indeed being counted. The placement of the ridge that is now being forecasted is suggesting a turn for the worse for the NW Gulf region. While this possibility is subject to change, it is enough of a concern that everyone should get themselves in order. Until we know more, Corpus, to New Orleans should lean to the side of caution. In the meantime:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... /SYS/COMP/
This morning's Houston National Weather Service Office Discussion
000
FXUS64 KHGX 270920
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
...MONITORING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...
.DISCUSSION...
THE REALITY IS THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE TX TODAY AND TOMORROW. POPS
WILL STILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY AND REMAIN HOT
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 100S INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL PROBABLY REACH CLOSE TO 107F IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
BUT THE MAIN TOPIC OF DISCUSSION IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. IR SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT
WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. NHC GIVES THIS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
T.D. BUT THINK THE ODDS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ON ITS WAY TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AIRCRAFT RECON WILL FLY INTO THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND DATA WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE STATUS OF
THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM IS OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST BECAUSE QUITE A FEW OF THE TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCES
BRING THE SYSTEM TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE NAM/GFS SEEM TO BRING THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE TX COAST AS WELL. FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD
HELP WITH THE TRACK FORECAST AS THEY WILL BENEFIT FROM A MORE
DEVELOPED SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLE WEAK
SYSTEMS RATHER POORLY. THAT SAID A MORE NW TRACK MAKES MORE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
THU NIGHT. RIDGES AT 700/850MB WILL ALSO BE LOCATED IN THIS
GENERAL AREA WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH TX. GIVEN
THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...THINK THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW WILL TRACK
AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TX COAST. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. RIGHT NOW THE
SYSTEM HAS WARM WATERS TO PASS THROUGH IN THE NW CARIB AND S
GULF. SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE WEAK BUT AS NOTED IN UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM/GFS TO WEAKEN SOME BUT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH EFFECT THE SHEAR HAS ON THE SYSTEM AND ITS INTENSITY.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...POPS WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR
FRIDAY BUT COULD CERTAINLY GO HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WERE DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES MORE IN LINE WITH
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD THE SYSTEM IMPACT SE TX...MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 80S WHICH WOULD BE A WELCOME BREAK
FROM THE HEAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONSERVATIVELY A 0.50 TO 1.00
INCH BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A GROWING THREAT DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK. ALSO KEPT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND 20 PERCENT
ON SATURDAY FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND.
IF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND
RAINFALL MISSES SE TX...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REALLY WORSEN. BY
SAT/SUN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS AND
STRENGTHENS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AND
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES. SE TX COULD VERY
WELL HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 110F. MIN TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH NOT A LOT OF OVERNIGHT COOLING.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
PW VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH WITH PRECIP TODAY DESPITE THE LOWER PW
VALUES. WILL MAINTAIN CB`S IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR TODAY OUTSIDE
AREAS OF CONVECTION. 43
&&
.MARINE...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
WEAK TROPICAL STORM. TPC HAS GIVEN THIS FEATURE A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS AND SEAS ON FRIDAY ARE A BIT
SKETCHY AND MUCH IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROPPED INTO THE 30`S YESTERDAY. THE LOW RH COUPLED
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A PALACIOS TO KATY TO
MADISONVILLE LINE. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 102 77 102 77 98 / 10 10 20 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 99 77 94 / 30 20 30 20 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 83 93 81 90 / 30 20 20 30 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43