July: Week of 25th - Don Near S TX/ Hot & Dry

[biggerbyte]

That is what usually happens to me, Jasons. Your turn will come. Mine was today with some heavy rainfall. Very nice, indeed.

Chin up.. When it finally comes your way, somebody else will have to do without.

[jasons2k]

So, let's see. At 3PM it was 94 degrees here. The sun is out, with plenty of time for additional heating. It's like a sauna outside. Plenty of moisture at all levels. Storms are building off to the north and headed south. Typically - normally - logically - these would be all the right ingredients for the storms to hold together and give us a nice downpour later this afternoon. I wonder if the atmosphere will behave like it's supposed to, or once again behave like it's in some strange parallel universe where physics no longer apply, and everything completely falls apart as it crosses Hwy 105....

[wxman57]

I'd bet another 12 pack on top of the unclaimed case of beer due to a freak storm in 2008 that indeed, the storms will get to the extreme Northern suburbs, and die.

I won't take that bet...

[jasons2k]

I'd bet another 12 pack on top of the unclaimed case of beer due to a freak storm in 2008 that indeed, the storms will get to the extreme Northern suburbs, and die.

I won't take that bet...

Are you saying you think the storms will hold together, or are you saying you don't think they'll even make it to the northern suburbs?

[jasons2k]

Towers to the NE are visible and have nice, crisp billowing tops....but time is running out for today...

[BoonDog]

Towers to the NE are visible and have nice, crisp billowing tops....but time is running out for today...

No way these storms miss us

[srainhoutx]

Storms are holding together rather well this evening. TC's to my NE and some home grown activity popping up to my S.

[jasons2k]

And right on queue - the storms have spit out an outflow boundary and are weakening as they cross into Montgomery County.

[jasons2k]

Maybe someone in N. Harris can get lucky when the sea breeze and outflow boundary collide. As for me, no such luck. It'll hopscotch right past me, as usual. The Hwy. 105 force-field wins again.

[BoonDog]

Well, that was a BIG disappointment

[Rip76]

So there are 2 force fields.
On at HWY 105 and one in the Pearland to League City area.

My son was born in June of 2008. I think he's seen it rain heavily about 5 times since then. (one time happened to be Hurricane Ike, which he doesn't really remember).

Sheesh.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Very active radar early this morning with numerous thunderstorms developing within a zone of surface moisture convergence from SE of Lake Charles to near Smith Point (Galveston Bay). Weak tropical wave noted south of Sabine Pass, TX moving westward and this is the feature responsible for all the ongoing activity early this morning.

Main question today is how far west and inland the storms penetrate. Another disappointing day yesterday rainfall wise as early morning showers put a lid on building afternoon instability keep activity fairly scattered. Moisture is deeper today with PWS of 2.2-2.4 inches across the region and the radar does look promising, but I have seen day after day over the past week of development in this same area spreading thick mid and high level cloud cover over the rest of SE TX and preventing more widespread rains. Difference today does appear to be a good deal of downstream development over Galveston Bay under the thickening cirrus shield, so maybe we will all get some decent rainfall today.

Saturated profile will support periods of very heavy rainfall under the stronger convective cells with hourly rates of 2-3 inches possible in this very tropical air mass.

Tropical wave/upper disturbance will weaken and move westward on Wednesday with less upper support and a slightly drier air mass spreading into the region from the NE. Will go back to our more typical daily afternoon seabreeze 20-30% coverage for Wed-Thurs. Large upper ridge over the central US expands back southward for the weekend while surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico builds westward and this should effectively shut off rain chances and force highs back into the 100’s for Fri-Sun. Ridge weakens again early next week and area comes under another period of easterly flow aloft allowing a return to more favorable rain chances.

Tropics:
After peaking late yesterday afternoon at 65mph, Bret has weakened overnight and is looking quite weak this morning with only modest amounts of weak convection near the center. A combination of dry air and increasing upper level wind shear have done their work on the small circulation center and Bret will continue a downward weakening trend until dissipation over the colder waters of the north Atlantic.

Note: Atlantic Sea Level Pressures have rapidly fallen to some of the lowest levels recorded in the past 50 years comparing closely to the same time in the 2005 hurricane season. The decline in SLP is concerning especially during the upcoming months of August and September and such low pressures help breed more frequent and more intense tropical cyclones. All parameters remain favorable for a significant increase in tropical cyclone activity basin wide starting in the next few weeks.

[jasons2k]

Just wondering - why do we need the sun and places like Beaumont don't?

[tireman4]

Just wondering - why do we need the sun and places like Beaumont don't?

Because we are "special" LOL...

[jasons2k]

Just wondering - why do we need the sun and places like Beaumont don't?

Because we are "special" LOL...

LOL - makes you wonder. I hit 98 degrees last Saturday but there wasn't enough sun/heat to maintain the storms moving-in. Yet in places like Beaumont, supposedly in the same airmass, it'll be 75 degrees and pouring at 7AM in the morning...

[wxman57]

The sun (daytime heating) isn't causing the storms to our east. The culprit is an upper-level disturbance that's enhancing lifting in the Beaumont area (yesterday). As the storms moved away from the disturbance they died out.

But that disturbance is moving westward into our area today, so we'll get some rain.

[jasons2k]

But that disturbance is moving westward into our area today, so we'll get some rain.

I hope we get more than "some" -- they sure are to the east of us

[Kludge]

Just wondering - why do we need the sun and places like Beaumont don't?

I hear you Jason. It seems that for the past few years Every Single Ingredient Must Be Perfect for us to get rain. Cap is too strong, not enough PW, not enough lift, too windy for sea breeze, too cloudy for daytime heating.... GEEEZ. For the first 20 years I lived in SE Texas, once it got over 90 degrees in the afternoon, Much of the area was gonna get rain...and over the course of a week, Everyone got a good soaking.

Ironically, when I bought this place back in 2005, I asked the owner why he was selling. He said, "it's just too dad-gummed wet all the time". Ha!

[srainhoutx]

Other than a directional movement typo, (W versus E movement) HGX is rather encouraging regarding rain for just about everyone today. Good luck and fingers crossed!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
942 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VORTICITY MAX AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER SE TX CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. CONVECTION HAS PULSED QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. ONLY CHAMBERS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES ARE EVEN
COMING CLOSE TO GRIDDED FFG BUT GIVEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL
THINK FLOOD THREAT IS QUITE LOW. STILL COULD GET SOME TRAINING
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING EAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL. MAIN FORECAST UPDATE
WAS TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS
OVER THE AREA. ALSO DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL. POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 80S BUT ALL THAT IS NEEDED IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND MAX
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 90S. FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED.

[jasons2k]

Did they mean east or west?? I thought the vort max/disturbance/tropical wave/whatever was moving west!?!?