More cold air on the way next week!?

[sleetstorm]

FWIW 0z GFS is slightly colder though not as cold as it was yesterday but colder and more moisture non the less.

I understand that, weatherguy, but from gazing at these computer models they seem to contradict that.

[DougNTexas]

Guys, what chance of Henderson, Tyler, Longview seeing any snow next week? I live in Price, Texas which is just West of Henderson.

[C2G]

Guys, what chance of Henderson, Tyler, Longview seeing any snow next week? I live in Price, Texas which is just West of Henderson.

I'd say a good chance of snow in the Arklatex region.......if you want to believe the GFS precipitation forecast.

[Mr. T]

It certainly is looking like a terrific sleet storm is going to end up transpiring here in southeast Texas sometime next week with moderate to feasilbly even heavy sleet. Would a rain snow mix be out of the question with highs in the mid or lower thirties, anyone I am going to say no because if the temperature in the mid and upper parts of the atmosphere is able to support sleet then a rain snow mix would not be out of the question, either. What do you think?

Well GFS shows temps in the mid 30's (36-34F) so i guess there COULD be some sleet if those temps were to verify but for right now the trend of the models are not in are favor as far as those of us who want wintry precip but at the same time im not totally ready to dismiss it either we should have a better handle on the situation by Sunday..

Actually, the 0z GFS raw numbers indicate the rain would begin as a mix with or possibly change over to snow next week even around the Houston area. The GFS definitely trended back to the cold and wetter side this run...

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kiah.txt

We definitely still have something to watch!

[Mr. T]

Not looking good for southeast Texas next week, as far as frozen precip goes, according to my trusty GFS forecast precipitation.
Looks good for Dallas and maybe points 80 to a 100 miles north of us.
Sorry Charley.

yep, just normal to slightly below normal temps....slowly we warm up. IMO, winter has sung its last song....

If the current model forecasts of highs in the 30s and 40s next week holds, it will certainly not be "normal to slightly below normal". Remember, our average high this time of the year is now in the mid 60s.

[don]

Hmm tyler you do make a point ,even the slightly warmer 6z run shows a liitle snow at IAH FWIW

[wxman57]

I wouldn't say it's impossible, but I would say that winter precip here is unlikely late next week. The issue is the feature that the GFS tracks across Texas to produce the precip in the cold air. It's alone with the greater strength of that feature. Other models have a much weaker system with a lot less precip across Texas. Combine that with considerable run-to-run variability with the GFS and it just doesn't look like a model that can be trusted beyond 3-4 days with this pattern. We'll have to wait another 2-3 days to see how all the models align for late next week.

[wxman57]

Hmm tyler you do make a point ,even the slightly warmer 6z run shows a liitle snow at IAH FWIW

That's a very low-res graphic. The higher res data show cold rain and not enough cold air depth for snow.

[sleetstorm]

Tomorrow is when everyone on this weather forum will have a better idea of what we can look forward to temperature and precipitationwise. That is approaching fast.

[sleetstorm]

I wouldn't say it's impossible, but I would say that winter precip here is unlikely late next week. The issue is the feature that the GFS tracks across Texas to produce the precip in the cold air. It's alone with the greater strength of that feature. Other models have a much weaker system with a lot less precip across Texas. Combine that with considerable run-to-run variability with the GFS and it just doesn't look like a model that can be trusted beyond 3-4 days with this pattern. We'll have to wait another 2-3 days to see how all the models align for late next week.

What makes winter precipitation here unlikely, wxman57? What are we still lacking other than more model concurrence & consistency?

[wxman57]

I wouldn't say it's impossible, but I would say that winter precip here is unlikely late next week. The issue is the feature that the GFS tracks across Texas to produce the precip in the cold air. It's alone with the greater strength of that feature. Other models have a much weaker system with a lot less precip across Texas. Combine that with considerable run-to-run variability with the GFS and it just doesn't look like a model that can be trusted beyond 3-4 days with this pattern. We'll have to wait another 2-3 days to see how all the models align for late next week.

What makes winter precipitation here unlikely, wxman57? What are we still lacking other than more model concurrence & consistency?

That's it, model agreement and consistency. The GFS is the only model indicating a stronger southern stream feature with the cold air in place. I wouldn't trust a model (GFS) that has problems predicting such southern stream features in the current pattern over one that has a better track record - the ECMWF. The Euro, however, does show cold air in place next week, it just doesn't show the moisture like the GFS. That's why there's at least a chance of some winter precip. Can't have it without cold air.

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
904 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2010

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2010 - 12Z SAT FEB 13 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/06 GEM GLOBAL AND 00Z/06 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN
TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH
7. THIS COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE WEIGHTS THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
LOW MID PERIOD SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
THIS WINTER. OVERALL...THE PATTERN IS LOCKED IN...WITH AN ONGOING
JET COMING INTO THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
SPLIT...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EAST. A NEW WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO DAY
7...THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE COMING
DAYS.


CISCO

[srainhoutx]

Very amazing Mid Atlantic storm. I see BWI is reporting 30 inches of snow and still falling!

[wxman57]

Plotted a 12Z meteogram for Houston. Shows cold rain next week (temps in mid to upper 30s with over an inch of rain). Great... I still don't think the GFS has a good handle on things. Consistency and trends will be the keys to building trust in it's projection, along with agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models.

[C2G]

Cold, cloudy, dreary weather. Please bring on spring already. Other than the snow miracle on Dec.4th........this has been a depressing winter.

[srainhoutx]

Plotted a 12Z meteogram for Houston. Shows cold rain next week (temps in mid to upper 30s with over an inch of rain). Great... I still don't think the GFS has a good handle on things. Consistency and trends will be the keys to building trust in it's projection, along with agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models.

Interesting to note the drop in temps compared to earlier runs of the GFS for the late next week time frame. I agree that consistancy has been lacking, but the GFS has done rather well with storm tracks as of late. The 'finer details' in the longer range, well not so great for that model.

[wxman57]

By the way, last February, we had 21 days with highs at 70F or above, including 3 days in the 80s (see below). That month was 5.9F above normal. Current 16-day GFS has us below 60 for the next 2 weeks. We'll be lucky to hit 70F once this February.

February 2009 at IAH:

[Paul]

Not looking good for southeast Texas next week, as far as frozen precip goes, according to my trusty GFS forecast precipitation.
Looks good for Dallas and maybe points 80 to a 100 miles north of us.
Sorry Charley.

yep, just normal to slightly below normal temps....slowly we warm up. IMO, winter has sung its last song....

If the current model forecasts of highs in the 30s and 40s next week holds, it will certainly not be "normal to slightly below normal". Remember, our average high this time of the year is now in the mid 60s.

I was trying to be positive T....

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
205 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2010

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 09 2010 - 12Z SAT FEB 13 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/06 GEM GLOBAL AND 00Z/06 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN
TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH
7. THIS COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE WEIGHTS THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
LOW MID PERIOD SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
THIS WINTER. OVERALL...THE PATTERN IS LOCKED IN...WITH AN ONGOING
JET COMING INTO THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
SPLIT...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EAST. A NEW WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO DAY
7...THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE COMING
DAYS.


FINAL...

THE 12Z/06 GFS AND ECMWF TRENDED SHARPLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW
OFF THE EAST COAST MID PERIOD...CLOSER TO THE BLEND CHOSEN FOR THE
UPDATE PACKAGE...SO MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LOW IN THE GULF DAY 7 LOOKS FLAT AND
DISORGANIZED AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE ARE MANY MODEL RUNS TO SORT
OUT THE DETAILS. NO END IN SIGHT FOR THE TENACIOUS PATTERN OVER
THE WEST EITHER.

CISCO

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sat Feb 6 15:15:43 2010 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 061515
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1512Z SAT FEB 06 2010
12Z MODEL CYCLE IS RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND IS ON TIME.
12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - NO 12Z REPORT ISSUED.
ALSO
WSR RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTS...
USAFR WC-130...11 FLIGHT LEVEL/13 DROPSONDES IN THE GULF OF
AK REGION.
NOAA G-IV...17 DROPSONDE REPORTS IN THE WESTPAC REGION.
CWD IN EFFECT UNTIL 02/08/12Z.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[wxman57]

Yes, the GFS remains the outlier as far as a strong disturbance passing next Thu-Fri. European is much weaker with the feature with virtually no moisture over us. I'm still not buying the GFS's solution.