July: Week of 25th - Don Near S TX/ Hot & Dry

[wxman57]

It's currently looking hot and relatively dry for the 4th weekend. Long-range models indicate some weakness in the ridge aloft, which may allow for a few afternoon showers. Best chance of any daytime showers/storms may be on the 4th itself, though chances aren't great.

[weatherag]

Looks like I'll be seeking refuge on the beach.

[srainhoutx]

Things are beginning to look a bit more promising for some possible rain chances over the Holiday weekend. There is also some better news in the longer range that the Upper Ridge will shift further N, opening the door to just perhaps a more normal summer time pattern of sea breeze showers and storms...

[tireman4]

Climate Numbers:

July Temperature and Precipitation Normals (1971-2000)
and Extremes for Houston (through 2010)
(last update on 8/2/10)

-------------- TEMPERATURE ------------------- ----- PRECIPITATION -----
NORMAL RECORD LOW RECORD HIGH RECORD CUMULATIVE PCPN
MAX MIN MAX YEAR MAX MIN YEAR MIN PCPN DAILY YEARLY
---------------------------------------------- -------------------------
1 93 73 102 1980 78 1903 66 1985 80 1983 1.40 1941 0.14 24.26
2 93 73 104 1894 78 1936 66 1924 81 1992 5.43 2010 0.27 24.39
3 93 73 100 2009* 80 1942 66 1977 79 1983 1.29 1942 0.40 24.52
4 93 73 101 2009 75 1985 66 1910 81 2009 3.49 1942 0.53 24.65
5 93 73 102 2009 74 1891 66 1924 80 2009* 3.04 1973 0.65 24.77

6 93 73 101 2005* 75 1942 63 1970 81 2009 1.73 1942 0.77 24.89
7 93 73 100 1980* 81 1892 62 1972 79 1994 2.32 2010 0.88 25.00
8 93 73 104 1980* 81 1906 68 1892 80 2009* 1.49 1938 0.99 25.11
9 93 73 102 1980 78 1976 64 1905 80 2009* 2.39 1961 1.10 25.22
10 93 73 101 1998 74 1961 65 1905 81 2009 1.75 1925 1.21 25.33

11 93 73 103 1980 77 1939 64 1905 80 1935 3.08 1939 1.31 25.43
12 93 73 104 1980 76 1939 65 1896 82 1988 5.19 1939 1.41 25.53
13 93 73 102 1980 76 1983 66 1895 80 2010* 5.40 2002 1.51 25.63
14 93 73 103 1980 76 1900 62 1990 81 1994 2.94 1949 1.61 25.73
15 94 73 103 2000 80 1900 64 1990 80 1994 4.32 1900 1.71 25.83

16 94 74 104 1980 78 1990 66 1895 80 1988 2.04 1912 1.80 25.92
17 94 74 104 1980* 78 1952 67 1974 80 2006 2.23 2010 1.89 26.01
18 94 74 102 1980 84 1894 67 1974 80 1963 2.85 1916 1.98 26.10
19 94 74 102 1980 82 1926 68 1974 80 1963 1.51 1907 2.07 26.19
20 94 74 102 2000 82 1992 69 1976 80 1963 2.08 1917 2.16 26.28

21 94 74 101 2000 81 1916 65 1989 81 2009 1.09 1919 2.25 26.37
22 94 74 101 2000* 76 1919 67 1988 80 1995 2.78 1933 2.34 26.46
23 94 74 101 1980 82 1967 64 1970 80 1995 2.36 1935 2.43 26.55
24 94 74 101 1954 78 1959 68 1972 80 1995 2.09 1904 2.52 26.64
25 94 74 102 1964 76 1959 65 1894 80 1962 3.74 1959 2.61 26.73

26 94 74 105 1954 78 1989 68 1972* 80 1995 2.35 1951 2.70 26.82
27 94 74 101 1995 79 1943 66 1902 80 1964 5.22 1943 2.79 26.91
28 94 74 103 1995 75 1933 66 1891 81 2009 2.52 1904 2.88 27.00
29 94 74 101 1907 80 1933 64 1994 84 1895 4.70 1943 2.98 27.10
30 94 74 102 1914 83 1995 68 1994 83 2009* 2.11 1954 3.08 27.20

31 94 74 103 1998 80 1894 67 1891 79 1962 2.65 1938 3.18 27.30

* indicates a record that has been tied on a previous year

July Normals
high: 93.6F
low: 73.5F
mean temperature: 83.6F
rainfall: 3.18"
cooling DD: 546
heating DD: 0

[srainhoutx]

I am a bit more encouraged that the Upper Ridge that has almost been ever present feature since May will begin to relax and shift N allowing for at least better chances of sea breeze showers/storms as we head into July...

[gocuse22]

Hoping for a weak tropical system here...

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances over the 4th of July Holiday weekend are looking meager, but things may get very interesting next week as an inverted trough and a very strong tropical wave enter the picture. NWS New Orleans take on a possible tropical trouble maker later next week...

A FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MAY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AND IF THAT
HAPPENS RAIN CHANCES WILL GO WAY UP.

[srainhoutx]

The models are trending to a splitting of the Upper Ridge in the medium/long range. Shout that occur, perhaps a better chance of some badly needed rain for drought parched TX. HPC:

THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SERN STATES STILL SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED
TREND TOWARDS EVENTUALLY SPLITTING. THE WRN LOBE OF THE SPLIT MAY
REORGANIZE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE JOINED THE GFS IN SHOWING THIS
SPLITTING TREND. STILL...
GIVEN FEEDBACK INTO THE UPPER RIDGE FROM ONGOING HEAT/DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH...WE RECOMMEND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
SHOWN BY NEW MODEL CONSENSUS.

[wxman57]

Next few weeks are looking hot and generally dry. I don't see any good indications of rain across the area. Mid to upper 90s with only the slightest chance of a few showers scattered about. No relief in the drought the first half of July, it appears.

[Ptarmigan]

Next few weeks are looking hot and generally dry. I don't see any good indications of rain across the area. Mid to upper 90s with only the slightest chance of a few showers scattered about. No relief in the drought the first half of July, it appears.

Let's hope it is wrong and we get rain. And please we need to get rid of that Cockroach Ridge.

[srainhoutx]

The 5 day qpf charts shows clearly that our 4th of July Holiday Weekend looks hot and dry. Perhaps some isolated showers/storms for a lucky few, but not many...

[jasons2k]

Look now or you'll miss it...

On the radar loop, there is a perfectly symmetrical circle that originates in NW Houston and quickly expands outward...any idea what that is? I've seen it before. Strange.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF suggests storms moving W out of Louisiana on Sunday. Fingers crossed!

[srainhoutx]

It's a bit interesting to see the GFS and the NAM suggest storms currently in the Eastern Gulf translate W over the weekend. Perhaps our rain chances may increase...just a bit...

[tireman4]

Look now or you'll miss it...

On the radar loop, there is a perfectly symmetrical circle that originates in NW Houston and quickly expands outward...any idea what that is? I've seen it before. Strange.

Ground clutter maybe...?

[jasons2k]

Look now or you'll miss it...

On the radar loop, there is a perfectly symmetrical circle that originates in NW Houston and quickly expands outward...any idea what that is? I've seen it before. Strange.

Ground clutter maybe...?

No, ground clutter is stationary. It wasn't the bats either (plus, it was morning). This was a perfectly round ring on radar that rapidly expanded outward and was perfectly symmetrical. I've seen this once before, except the ring was SE of downtown. Last time I saw this, I posted some radar images of it (either here or on S2K). I don't know how else to describe it except that if a big bomb went off and was captured on radar, I imagine that's what it would look like...

[jasons2k]

To add: I did read somewhere that it could be a heated parcel of air that was rising and expanding. That seems to make the most sense as the ring was perfectly symmetrical as it grew - it couldn't have been birds/insects/bats. Plus, it expanded incredibly fast and occurred just after sunrise.

[wxman57]

We have some sea breeze showers forming on the south side of the city now near the Beltway & 45 and just west of 45. One is on track to move across the downtown area in the next hour or so, if it survives.

[tireman4]

Wow and it is sunny here at Gulfgate....

[wxman57]

Wow and it is sunny here at Gulfgate....

Looks like that shower passed just to your west.