June Ends - Hottest on Record

[Mr. T]

Watch issued for the NW counties of SE TX, just outside of Houston...

[Andrew]

[srainhoutx]

HGX Long Range radar @ 2:30 AM...

[srainhoutx]

Hallelujah, the storms may just hold together to give Grimes County some relief and maybe some welcomed early morning rains for the Metro area as well. Fingers crossed!

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch cancelled for all of TX...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

TXZ195-196-198-221000-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-
356 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 352 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION...MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELLBORN...ROANS
PRAIRIE...MILLICAN...IOLA...CARLOS...SNOOK...COLLEGE STATION AND
BRYAN.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX TO SERN TX AND THE TX GULF COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537...

VALID 220854Z - 221000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537
CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST COULD OCCUR ATTENDANT TO THE NRN
EXTENT OF A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NERN PART OF WW
537...GENERALLY NW-N OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. HOWEVER...AN
OVERALL SLOWER SEWD AND SWD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS LINE OF STORMS
DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS
GREATLY REDUCED SINCE THE TIME OF INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A SSEWD MOVEMENT AT 15 KT ALONG THE
SRN EXTENT OF THE LINE MOVING INTO S TX...WHILE THE NRN EXTENT
MOVING INTO AREAS NW-N OF HOUSTON METRO AREA IS ADVANCING ESEWD AT
20 KT. RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS AND COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL SUSTAIN
ACTIVITY INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SLOWER MOVEMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MCS
ADVANCES TOWARD THE TX COAST.
..PETERS.. 06/22/2011


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

HGX morning AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
406 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROPAGATE SE INTO SE TX. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED FROM THE
STORMS COLD POOL CONTINUES TO OUT RUN UPDRAFTS CUTTING THEM OFF
FROM SFC BASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE NOW PRIMARILY
ELEVATED IN NATURE WHICH HAS DECREASED THE SEVERE THREAT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 537 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THESE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN GENERAL...POSSIBLY MORE
WHERE THERE ARE STORM MERGERS FROM CELLS PUSHING INTO THE LINE
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER BURLESON COUNTY WHERE
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING FOR TODAY AS THIS LINE
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE HOUSTON AREA IN
ANOTHER 3-5 HRS BUT IT COULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH INITIATION ALONG ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA WITH GPS MET PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.9-2.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SOME WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION AND COULD GET ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO FORM WITH ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WHICH WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVED.
FORECAST WILL KEEP 60 POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY
WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

NAM CONTINUES TO INSIST OF DEVELOPING A COASTAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO THU. GFS SHOWS NO REAL HINT AT THIS. AS A RESULT...DIFFICULT
TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS ALONG THE COAST BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
FEEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM ITSELF
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. GOING INTO
THURSDAY...FORECAST WILL KEEP POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST BUT
ONLY AT 30/40 PERCENT. THE GFS HOLDS ON TO PRECIP WATER OF 2
INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT DRIER.
THE GFS THEN FOLLOWS THE NAM WITH DRYING OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP
WATER DROP TO 1.5 INCHES FOR BOTH SOLUTIONS. FOR FRIDAY...THINK
THERE WILL NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT TSRA BUT COULD
SEE SOME ISO ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY 20 POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

BY THE WEEKEND THE GFS HAS PRECIP WATER DROPPING BELOW 1.5
INCHES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX
FROM MEXICO. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY
MID WEEK BUT THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS OR
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THAT...DROUGHT LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL AT
LEAST PROVIDE SOME RELIEF BUT UNFORTUNATELY NOT LONG TERM RELIEF.

[C2G]

What an outstanding radar picture. Please hold together.

[srainhoutx]

Heavy rain with thunder. What a sight for sore eyes!

[wxman57]

I don't like the look of that rain band, and I don't like that it's hitting at this time of day. It may actually have the effect of decreasing the amount of rain we get unless there are some pretty good dynamics to keep the rain going. It is definitely weakening as it moves into the city. That could mean it may just prevent us from heating up and getting even more rain. I'd rather see it arrive in the early afternoon closer to max heating.

[srainhoutx]

Let's hope the SREF meso model is currect in suggesting another round of showers/storms later today or tomorrow. So far Harris County Rainfall maps suggest a general 1/2 inch across the Western County and a couple of isolated higher totals in far NW Harris County.

[rnmm]

No rain has fallen here, but I am so excited it has fallen around the areas that need it, especially where the fires are!!

[wxman57]

Barely enough rain to wet the ground in SW Houston and down near Hobby Airport. Storms are weakening and stabilizing the atmosphere, I'm afraid. May be hard to get a round of heavy rain this afternoon with all the clouds and very light rain around.

[rnmm]

Barely enough rain to wet the ground in SW Houston and down near Hobby Airport. Storms are weakening and stabilizing the atmosphere, I'm afraid. May be hard to get a round of heavy rain this afternoon with all the clouds and very light rain around.

Not what we need How long will it be before we see rain chances again?

[Portastorm]

Received 1.35 inches of GLORIOUS rainfall here in southwest Austin in the last six hours.

Good luck to my SE Texas friends ... hope you get that and more!

[srainhoutx]

I have 1 inch of glorious rain in the old rain gauge and still falling. That's the most rain I've seen since January!

[srainhoutx]

I have 1 inch of glorious rain in the old rain gauge and still falling. That's the most rain I've seen since January!

Good to go until illegal fireworks get popped on July 4th...

That $1000.00 fine for selling or shooting off any fireworks will be enough to keep things in check would be my hunch. No fireworks stands allowed will likely curtail activity in the County.

[Kludge]

Almost up to 2" in northern Grimes County. <big sigh of relief> What a delightful and welcome break (if only momentarily) from this hell-drought.
Hopefully the wildfires are all extinguished.

[texoz]

would like to hear thoughts on this afternoon/evening in central texas? have an outdoor event tonight.
thanks

[wxman57]

Not nearly enough to water my lawn in SW Houston (Westbury). Maybe a third of an inch. Some areas got an inch or more. Unable to get any heating to generate heavier storms this afternoon. Here's a good Harris County rainfall map;

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/