June Ends - Hottest on Record

[jasons2k]

It looks like I may actually get a few drops of rain here shortly...

[singlemom]

GASP!

We actually got *rain* for ten minutes here at 45 and 2920! Real rain! I almost forgot what it looked like!!!! lol

Why! Why is there a ridge riiight over 45 and 2920?

[unome]

saw a few tiny cells on imap, but only clouds here - I will take them, beats having the sun baking down - feels good

[jasons2k]

Cell fell apart just as it approached the house. Maybe better luck next time....

[jasons2k]

There are a couple of decent cells now over Harris County (W and NW of downtown). Maybe some of you will get some rain...

[srainhoutx]

The Euro has been rather persistent on breaking down the Upper Ridge in the longer range. There have been hints from the GFS/UKMET as well and just perhaps some weak tropical mischief to increase rain chances...

[Portastorm]

What happened to Ed "I'm a glass half full guy"?

Meanwhile, here in your state capital, we hit 100 yesterday for the seventh time this year. On average, we see 14 of those a year. We're already halfway there and summer hasn't really started!

[Rip76]

I guess Mrs. Rip76 and myself will be enjoying those 100 degree temps in the capital city this weekend.

Were heading up today for the RUSH concert on Sunday.
I'm glad the Frank Erwin Center is not an outside venue.

[Portastorm]

I guess Mrs. Rip76 and myself will be enjoying those 100 degree temps in the capital city this weekend.

Were heading up today for the RUSH concert on Sunday.
I'm glad the Frank Erwin Center is not an outside venue.

You and Mrs. Rip will be nice and cool inside the Erwin Center. No worries there! However, I will warn you that you're going to run into the remains of the ROT Rally. Motorcycles everywhere here this weekend, especially downtown.

[Ptarmigan]

Small showers in the Gulf, dissipiating so far as they reach the coast.

No more complaining about a cockroach cap. Easterlies have done away with that, now its just pretty unimpressive lapse rates and not exactly dry, but not exactly juicy either atmosphgere, lapse rates below 6ºC/km aloft, no doubt a product of subsidence.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings ... BS/LCH.gif

And its only going to get drier...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif


I see some cu, so will go glass 1/128th optimistic for a meaningful shower today.

The easterlies are like RAID for the cockroach cap.

[sleetstorm]

This drought is becoming more and more insane with each passing day. If the entire state of Texas does not receive any rainfall by next month, August, or September it could be curtains for more bushes and trees.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Climate Update:...~sigh~...

Code: Select all

JUST THINKING OF SOME MORE WAYS TO LOOK AT OUR CURRENT DROUGHT AND HEAT.

AT CLL THIS MONTH (THRU THE 11TH)...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
85.5 DEGREES AND THE TOTAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN 0.42 INCHES. IF THE TEMPERATURE
DID NOT CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...JUNE 2011 WOULD GO DOWN
AS THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD. IF THE RAINFALL DID NOT CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...JUNE 2011 WOULD NOT RANK AS ONE OF THE TOP 10
DRIEST JUNES ON RECORD (10TH DRIEST IS 0.29 INCHES).

AT IAH THIS MONTH (THRU THE 11TH)...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
84.9 DEGREES AND THE TOTAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN 0.11 INCHES. IF THE TEMPERATURE
DID NOT CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...JUNE 2011 WOULD GO DOWN
AS THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD. IF THE RAINFALL DID NOT CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...JUNE 2011 WOULD GO DOWN AS THE 2ND DRIEST JUNE
ON RECORD.

AT HOU THIS MONTH (THRU THE 11TH)...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
85.3 DEGREES AND THE TOTAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN A TRACE. IF THE TEMPERATURE
DID NOT CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...JUNE 2011 WOULD GO DOWN
AS THE 2ND WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD. IF THE RAINFALL DID NOT CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...JUNE 2011 WOULD GO DOWN AS THE DRIEST JUNE ON
RECORD.

AT GLS THIS MONTH (THRU THE 11TH)...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
85.0 DEGREES AND THE TOTAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN 0.11 INCHES. IF THE TEMPERATURE
DID NOT CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...JUNE 2011 WOULD GO DOWN
AS THE 3RD WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD. IF THE RAINFALL DID NOT CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...JUNE 2011 WOULD GO DOWN AS THE 6TH DRIEST JUNE
ON RECORD.

[srainhoutx]

While we are searching for any news of any rain chances, there is a bit of good news via the GFS. That model is suggesting a bit of a shift S of the Upper Ridge and the GFS has been hinting for days of some disturbed weather taking shape in the Bay of Campeche in the longer range. One thing of note is the increased deep tropical moisture that most models are depicting building N from the Caribbean in the medium range. Now that we are nearing mid June, just perhaps this is not some model fantasy and we may well be headed into the timeframe later in June when eyes will turn to the tropics for some badly needed moisture to help ease our rainfall deficits. Fingers Crossed.

[Ptarmigan]

I have looked at old records. Sometimes a dry spring has given way to wet June and summer. 1960 and 1961 come to mind. June 1960 started hot and dry and than turned wet towards the end of the month as Tropical Storm #1 made landfall.

[jeff]

While we are searching for any news of any rain chances, there is a bit of good news via the GFS. That model is suggesting a bit of a shift S of the Upper Ridge and the GFS has been hinting for days of some disturbed weather taking shape in the Bay of Campeche in the longer range. One thing of note is the increased deep tropical moisture that most models are depicting building N from the Caribbean in the medium range. Now that we are nearing mid June, just perhaps this is not some model fantasy and we may well be headed into the timeframe later in June when eyes will turn to the tropics for some badly needed moisture to help ease our rainfall deficits. Fingers Crossed.

I am wishing for rain as the next guy...but be careful what you wish for you might not like the end outcome. I have little doubt that this drought will be ended from the tropics, possibly multiple events. Rainfall departures are such that a typical tropical system (moving) would not end our drought...it would take more than one. Tomball is nearly 25" below normal since October 2010...that is insane, the worst drought on record for Smithville TX (08-09) was 30" below normal so we are getting close to some serious stuff over NW Harris. From a short term standpoint this is a drought of record of this area...from a longer term standpoint the 1917-1918 drought look to have been worst and the 1950's drought much longer in duration, but not as severe. The last 4 months have really been incredible on the lack of rainfall.

[unome]

we've been watering our lawn like crazy & I was amazed to see it was only $3 more than last year at this time ! Must have been dry last year also & maybe I just forgot? Not sure... Our neighbors on both sides have let their lawns turn yellow, not a drop of water... I heard a home-show on the radio that mentioned that even if you spent a couple hundred bucks watering your lawn, it would be less than the cost of repair to your foundation when it cracks... me, I'm watering...

[C2G]

Seems like it was a hot dry summer in 79 before TS Claudette dumped on us. I'm a firm believer that the weather balances itself out.
Problem around here is that it only takes a few days to accomplish this balancing act.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

After a few showers and thunderstorms early last week, the heat and dryness have returned.

Dangerous fire weather conditions across all areas through the week

Near record heat will return again this week as ridge aloft over Mexico builds northward into TX. Highs yesterday of 97-99 will be about 1-3 degrees warmer today and 1-2 degrees warmer on Tuesday. Expect widespread upper 90’s to low 100’s today through most of the week with little to no chance of rainfall. Models are attempting to develop a few afternoon thunderstorms over our NE zones as a piece of energy rounds the upper ridge on Wednesday…but this is likely more wishful thinking than anything. The threat of lightening induced fires would be a bigger negative than any small amounts of wetting rains. With that said the area will continue to suffer through one of the worst droughts on record.

Fire Weather:
Dry air in the mid levels is mixing down to the surface during the afternoon hours allowing afternoon RH values to fall to below 40% across much of the region. Ground fuels are extremely dry with vegetation health poor. Afternoon winds have been averaging 10-20mph across the region from the S and SE. Dry fuels and wind have resulted in increasingly larger fires over the past week and fires burning close in or in the urban/rural interface. TX Forest Service indicates the risk of a large pine crown fire in the wooded pine areas continues to increase as the tops of the pines are starting to dry and stress. Wildfires over the past week have shown rapid and erratic behavior and are becoming increasing difficult to contain. Residents should use extreme caution when dealing with any kind of fire outdoors…burns bans are in effect for most counties. KBDI values are over 700 across Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, and Brazoria. KBDI values range from 0 (saturated) to 800 (no soil moisture). Harris County currently has a value around 725.

Plum Grove Fire:
140-acre fire developed yesterday afternoon near the Harris/Montgomery County line and expanded rapidly in gusty winds and dry grasses reaching into some tree tops of dry pine trees. 18 fire departments responded along with TX Forest Service helicopter for water drop support. Fire burned out of control threatening 6 homes until early evening. Dozers were used to cut fire lines and the fire has been contained.

Liberty County:
50-acre fire has been contained near FM 1008 and Simmons Rd. No homes were threatened.

Hardin County:
1409-acre fire north of FM 770 and SH 326. Several homes were threatened. Numerous fire departments along with several dozers and multiple aircraft have been used on this fire.

Drought:

While some areas saw rains last week, those rains did little to relieve the ongoing exceptional drought across the region. In fact based on flash flood guidance it would take at least 5.0 inches of rainfall in rural areas to even generate run-off. Rainfall departures are now approaching 20-25 inches for the period from October 2010 to June 2011. A few interesting facts from this drought:

Hobby Airport has only record rainfall on one day out of the last 86 (
BUSH IAH has had less than 1 inch of rainfall for the past 3 months (this has never happened before)
Since Jan 26th (IAH has recorded 2.05 inches of rainfall and Hobby 1.41 inches)
105 on June 5 and 6 at IAH set new all-time record highs for Houston (old record was 104 set in 2009)

Rainfall Departures from Oct 1, 2010 to June 9, 2011:

Bellville: -20.13
Brenham: -20.01
College Station: -18.99
Columbus: -20.96
Conroe: -21.37
Freeport: -17.78
Hobby Airport: -18.20
BUSH IAH: -19.60
Huntsville: -22.73
Livingston: -23.45
Matagorda: -17.82
Tomball: -24.31
Victoria: -16.72

Water Restrictions:

Numerous cities and jurisdictions have begun water restrictions. Across the state 133 locations have mandatory water restrictions in place. In SE TX the following cities have voluntary water restrictions:

Huntsville
Katy
League City
Seabrook
Conroe
The Woodlands
Pearland
Sugar Land
New Waverly
Galveston
Riverside

Austin: has begun stage 1 water restrictions
San Antonio: has begun stage 2 water restrictions. Edwards Aq has fallen to 642ft or 20.4ft below normal. At 640 ft San Antonio will go to stage 3 mandatory water restrictions with no outside watering at all.

[wxman57]

I don't see any rain on the horizon. Models indicate a persistent ridge over Texas with W-NW flow aloft keeping us dry for the next few weeks. More 100 degree days are likely this month.

[Ptarmigan]

I am wishing for rain as the next guy...but be careful what you wish for you might not like the end outcome. I have little doubt that this drought will be ended from the tropics, possibly multiple events. Rainfall departures are such that a typical tropical system (moving) would not end our drought...it would take more than one. Tomball is nearly 25" below normal since October 2010...that is insane, the worst drought on record for Smithville TX (08-09) was 30" below normal so we are getting close to some serious stuff over NW Harris. From a short term standpoint this is a drought of record of this area...from a longer term standpoint the 1917-1918 drought look to have been worst and the 1950's drought much longer in duration, but not as severe. The last 4 months have really been incredible on the lack of rainfall.

At this point, I don't care if we get a lot of rain. The 1950s drought had wet periods and even one wet year in 1953 for Upper Texas Coast. Some of the driest years occurred in 1950s, 1954 and 1956 for Upper Texas Coast. 1917-1918 drought was extremely dry for Upper Texas Coast. The October-May total for 1917-1918 for Upper Texas Coast was 17.92 inches. The October-May total for 2010-2011 for Upper Texas Coast is 14.17 inches.

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

Seems like it was a hot dry summer in 79 before TS Claudette dumped on us. I'm a firm believer that the weather balances itself out.
Problem around here is that it only takes a few days to accomplish this balancing act.

June 1979 was dry, but not abnormally dry. April 1979 was quite wet as there was a severe flood north of Houston on April 18-21, 1979.

http://floodsafety.com/texas/USGSdemo/2001to1975.htm