94L - in Caribbean

[unome]

[srainhoutx]

Intersting to note the Euro/GFS build a blocking high pressure ridge over Florida while the Caribbean disturbance meanders in the Western Caribbean...

[srainhoutx]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and Canadian suggest a broad area of low pressure will slowly meander N near the Western tip of Cuba in the days ahead.

[srainhoutx]

A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

[srainhoutx]

Very good model agreement today with virtually all globals slowly lifting a broad low pressure system NNW from the SW Caribbean to very near the Yucatan. Also of note, nice catch by ASCAT depicting a weak LLC E of Nicaragua...

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS and Canadian suggest a broad area of low pressure will slowly meander N near the Western tip of Cuba in the days ahead.

Yep, the Canadian "hurricane" is gone on the 12Z run today. Development looks unlikely, but not impossible. Nothing to suggest that even if something DID develop down there that it would be any threat (or benefit) to us. Here's a shot of the region. Broad weak area of low pressure generally around 15N/81W:

[srainhoutx]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE REGION OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

[srainhoutx]

Possible RECON mission tasked for the Caribbean disturbance...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

[srainhoutx]

Merged the Topics, Ed with the one that unome had started already about this area and renamed the title.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS does nothing with 94L, while the Euro, Canadian and UKMET suggest a slowly strengthening low pressure area that drifts NNW toward Western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. We'll see what the Hurricane models suggest when they start running for this feature.

[srainhoutx]

Now up on Navy site...

[srainhoutx]

ASCAT pass caught part of 94L..

[wxman57]

There are plenty of surface obs in the area, dont' need ASCAT. Here's a current sat pic with obs. Ignore the 110kt wind in the Turks/Caicos islands. Broad weak low with 10-15 kt winds. Still a good bit of shear impacting it, as is evident by the wide spread in the BAM models. I agree with the 80% chance of it NOT developing. Something to keep an eye on. If it was to develop, a track to the N to NNE is most likely.

[desiredwxgd]

Orange Now (30%)

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA.

[desiredwxgd]

Not to shabby....

[srainhoutx]

GFDL suggests no real development meandering toward the Yucatan. HWRF, on the other hand, develops a 65 kt TS heading NE. Also RECON added...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED:
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect this will be a slow developer, if then. Still lacking moisture in the mid levels and appears to be rather broad. If consolidation can occur, then a TS is not out of the question, IMO.

06042011_0145_goes13_x_wv1km_94LINVEST_25kts-1007mb-163N-778W_100pc.jpg (42.8 KiB) Viewed 3946 times

[srainhoutx]

ASCAT (although wxman57 has GARP) suggests a sheared disturbance lacking convection on the Western side. That would need to change today for RECON to fly, IMO.

[wxman57]

I don't see much change since 12 hours ago. Pressures in the region aren't much lower. Winds around the weak low center still about 15-20 mph max. LLC is displaced about 100-120 miles west of that small blob of convection. Definitely doesn't qualify for TD upgrade at this time. There is very little model support for development now (except the Canadian). I won't even begin to touch the HWRF until it demonstrates it has a clue this year. Certainly didn't demonstrate that last year. And GFDL typically does poorly with intensity forecasts for such weak systems.

I'd revise its development potential to 30-40% based on everything I'm seeing. In most cases, such systems never get their acts together and develop.

And I don't see any remote possibility of it moving in this direction and affecting southeast Texas.