93L Nearing The Gulf. Texas Bound?

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932011.invest
FSTDA
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201106010037
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011060100, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011
AL, 93, 2011060100, , BEST, 0, 330N, 732W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

Models have been sniffing out increased moisture with the TUTT low for our area. Now that 93L has been designated, early model tracks are picking up on that moisture and bringing it back W under the Ridge.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT
REACHES LAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Nice visible shot on floater as 93L quickly runs out of real estate for any chance of developing further...

[unome]

I still like the models bringing it over TX & giving us a glimmer of hope for rain, even if it's not tropical

KHOU's Storm Tracker in "hurricane" mode on satellite view shows it nicely http://www.khou.com/weather/interactive ... APID=13352

[Jonas]

I still like the models bringing it over TX & giving us a glimmer of hope for rain, even if it's not tropical

KHOU's Storm Tracker in "hurricane" mode on satellite view shows it nicely http://www.khou.com/weather/interactive ... APID=13352

I had a very vivid dream last night.

I was at a seashore. I saw a huge rotating wind blow through the area. When it became calm again, it was bright and sunny out and I was paddling a little boat along the shoreline, which seemed to have come up inland somewhat. As I paddled, I noticed two sharks in the water ahead. I began back-paddling the boat, but was quickly intercepted from the left side by a whole school of smaller sharks that came right up to the boat. That scared me and the dream ended.

Interesting timing for this dream, I think. I know this is a little strange to put on a weather forum, but when I heard that this system was forming of the Florida coast, then remembered the dream I'd had just a few hours ago, it was a bit provocative.

[wxman57]

Looks like an LLC on visible imagery near 30.1N/79.5W, displaced well NE of the convection. Note that pressures around the disturbance are quite high (1018-1019mb). Not much of a pressure gradient, winds only likely in the 15-20 kt range.

I put it inland into the TX coast between Victoria and Galveston by late Friday morning. Just the type of weak system that could give us some good rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

RECON Scheduled...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 01 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2011
         WSPOD NUMBER.....11-001

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 02/1800Z                   A. 03/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 02/1700Z                   C. 03/1000Z
       D. 28.0N 87.0W                D. 28.0N 94.0W
       E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2200Z       E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[Andrew]

Updated forecast models:

[srainhoutx]

Looks like an LLC on visible imagery near 30.1N/79.5W, displaced well NE of the convection. Note that pressures around the disturbance are quite high (1018-1019mb). Not much of a pressure gradient, winds only likely in the 15-20 kt range.

I put it inland into the TX coast between Victoria and Galveston by late Friday morning. Just the type of weak system that could give us some good rainfall.

Thanks for the update wxman57. Keep us informed.

[Andrew]

If I were a betting man, based on earlier model runs of globals, 12Z NAM, and CIMMS uper divergence and lower convergence, the recons will be cancelled tomorrow, and we'll be lucky to see a few showers out of this.


But I remain glass 1/256th optimistic, silver lining guy, on a drought buster this weekend.

I think the chances are better then 1/256th of getting rain. Entering the gulf, conditions look better for some possible improvements in the system and while the models aren't exactly picking up on this storm we have seen time after time how many problems they have with these smaller and less intense storms. Lets hope the land interaction may expand the system just a bit to increase the areas that get rain but that doesn't look to promising. Time to watch and see what this does tomorrow in the gulf.

[redneckweather]

Yes, it would be good to see this complex spread out a bit when going over Florida but land interaction could also expand it out and disrupt it too much. That's what we have to keep an eye on. Hopefully it will be moving fast enough over Florida that it can hold together while crossing over. If so, then rain chances look good for wherever this does end up which is hopefully the Texas coast. It looks like it will be hugging the ridge and while doing so, it will stay in a favorable area to keep it going.

[unome]

uplifting graphics on HGX

[Andrew]

Yes, it would be good to see this complex spread out a bit when going over Florida but land interaction could also expand it out and disrupt it too much. That's what we have to keep an eye on. Hopefully it will be moving fast enough over Florida that it can hold together while crossing over. If so, then rain chances look good for wherever this does end up which is hopefully the Texas coast. It looks like it will be hugging the ridge and while doing so, it will stay in a favorable area to keep it going.

With such a weak "system" the land interaction won't disrupt it but still with this system being so small it could limit our rain chances for Friday. *Fingers Crossed*

[srainhoutx]

[unome]

It has CIMSS' eye as well Atlantic Tropical Invest 93L: a residual MCV from a Midwest MCS?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/8254

[HereInKaty]

Hoping for some rain out of this.

[unome]

Impact Weather's "Your Weather Blog" http://yourweatherblog.com/ though down-playing it's tropical chances, does say:

"Disturbance 5 is expected to track westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and by Friday morning approach the Texas coast. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be possible from the Houston area to Corpus Christi. Accumulations could be as much as 1-3 inches with isolated heavier amounts possible. The exact impacts will depend highly on the strength of the disturbance when it moves onshore."

[srainhoutx]

Cloud tops have warmed a bit this afternoon as 93L heads across Florida...