April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:53 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Nice trend on the 12Z WRF for areas to the N and W of downtown that are in an Extreme Drought situation for Monday afternoon...
Look how magically the storms disappear as they approach Houston Metro.

Per 12Z NAM, but somehow, I believe it...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFC ... floop.html

It is good to see that areas getting Exceptional and Extreme Drought are getting the rain. We need it too. Let's hope those models are wrong. That cockroach ridge must go.

Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:49 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote: And then depression set in...

I think "depression" is a great word to describe my feelings at this point. I almost can't even look any more.

Sat Apr 23, 2011 3:06 pm

Ugh...

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

      ...RECORD WARMTH TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...

...COLLEGE STATION ON TARGET FOR IT`S WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD...

APRIL 2011 HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THE FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IF THE MONTH ENDED
TODAY...APRIL 2011 WOULD BE THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR COLLEGE
STATION (RECORDS BACK TO 1902). IT WOULD BE THE FIFTH WARMEST ON
RECORD FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON (RECORDS BACK TO 1891)...THE FOURTH
WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD FOR GALVESTON (RECORDS BACK TO 1875) AND
THE THIRD WARMEST ON RECORD FOR HOUSTON HOBBY (RECORDS BACK TO 1930).

        COLLEGE      CITY OF      HOUSTON     GALVESTON
        STATION      HOUSTON      HOBBY

        74.5 2011    75.2 1963    75.7 1967   76.5 1888
        74.0 1967    75.0 1967    74.5 1963   75.0 1967
        73.7 1925    74.3 1981    73.9 2011   74.5 2006
        73.1 2006    74.0 1965    73.6 2006   73.8 2011
        72.8 2002    73.9 2011    73.5 1965   73.4 1929

THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT GRIP SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE
BEEN EXACERBATED BY THE RECENT WARM SPELL. THE LAST FIVE DAYS
HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RARELY
FALLING BELOW 73 DEGREES. THE NORMAL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
TYPICALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE DURING THE LAST HALF OF APRIL IS IN THE LOWER 80S.

BELOW IS A LIST OF NEW OR TIED TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES:

COLLEGE STATION - 10 NEW/TIED TEMPERATURE RECORDS

NEW/TIED               PREVIOUS

 8TH 93 DEGREES        91 1930
10TH 92 DEGREES        92 1968
19TH 96 DEGREES#       95 1951
20TH 94 DEGREES        94 1925
22ND 93 DEGREES        91 2009

# TIES FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN APRIL (APRIL 16
1920 AND APRIL 30 1933)

18TH 71 DEGREES        71 1970
19TH 73 DEGREES        72 1972
20TH 76 DEGREES#       73 1925
21ST 73 DEGREES        72 1925
22ND 74 DEGREES        73 1925

# WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF APRIL.
PREVIOUS WARMEST WAS 75 DEGREES ON APRIL 27 1994 AND APRIL 29 1970.

CITY OF HOUSTON 9 NEW/TIED TEMPERATURE RECORDS

11TH 89 DEGREES        89 1934
19TH 92 DEGREES        92 1987
22ND 90 DEGREES        90 2009

 8TH 73 DEGREES        73 1999
18TH 73 DEGREES        72 1970
19TH 73 DEGREES        73 1996
20TH 76 DEGREES        74 1964
21ST 76 DEGREES        74 1963
22ND 74 DEGREES        74 1967

HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT 5 NEW/TIED TEMPERATURE RECORDS

19TH 88 DEGREES        88 1984

 8TH 72 DEGREES        72 2001
10TH 71 DEGREES        71 2001
20TH 74 DEGREES        72 1964
21ST 73 DEGREES        72 2002

GALVESTON 4 NEW/TIED TEMPERATURE RECORDS

11TH 87 DEGREES        83 2007
15TH 86 DEGREES        85 1878
19TH 83 DEGREES        83 1965

20TH 74 DEGREES        74 1972

RAINFALL HAS BEEN MEAGER. AS APRIL 22ND...THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS
ONLY RECEIVED 0.11 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST
APRIL ON RECORD. HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN DURING IN APRIL. THIS MAKES
APRIL 2011 THE DRIEST ON RECORD FOR EACH OF THESE SITES. WASN`T
IT JUST TWO YEARS AGO THAT HOBBY AIRPORT ENDURED IT`S WETTEST
APRIL OF ALL TIME WITH OVER 15 INCHES OF RAIN? IT SEEMS SO LONG
AGO. GALVESTON HAS RECEIVED 0.11 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH
AND IT IS THE THIRD DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD. MUCH CAN CHANGE BY THE
END OF THE MONTH AND THESE VALUES COULD CHANGE. SEE OUR LATEST
DROUGHT STATEMENT DGTHGX FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT.

Sat Apr 23, 2011 4:02 pm

Let's hope the Euro is more correct for Monday...

ON MONDAY...PARAMETERS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN. PW VALUES OVER THE NORTH ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DRY LINE WILL INCH TOWARD THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. K INDEX INCHES INTO THE UPPER 30S AND TT VALUES ARE
IN THE 50S. CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 AND THE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETER
OF ALL...OUR CAPPING INVERSION...IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE CAP
LOOKS BREAKABLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. JET DYNAMICS ARE
WORRISOME. SE TX WILL LIE IN A BROADLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW BUT
ALSO LIES IN A RIGHT FRONT QUAD WHICH IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE. CAP
STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND MOISTURE LEVELS DROP SO AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS FCSTR THAT BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP MON NITE...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
FAVOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. POPS SLOWLY DWINDLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE FIZZLING TO NEAR ZERO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES MON/MON
NITE AS IT HAS A DEEPER TROUGH...A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS.

Sat Apr 23, 2011 8:15 pm

Nasty looking storm with a tornadic signature SW of Fort Worth.

Sat Apr 23, 2011 9:52 pm

Sprinkled on us off and on at Miller Theater this evening.

Sun Apr 24, 2011 8:39 am

Sadly, rain chances have dwindled to next to nothing for our area. In fact the 06Z GFS suggest little if any rain through May 10th.

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.14 " and Convective: 0.02 "

Happy Easter everyone!

12Z WRF for Monday...

Sun Apr 24, 2011 11:24 am

srainhoutx wrote:Sadly, rain chances have dwindled to next to nothing for our area. In fact the 06Z GFS suggest little if any rain through May 10th.

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.14 " and Convective: 0.02 "

Happy Easter everyone!

12Z WRF for Monday...

I haven't seen this much lack of rain in forever. What makes this worst is going into summer rain chances are going to be limited to what we get from the tropics which is really hit and miss.

Mon Apr 25, 2011 7:56 am

SPC has shifted the Moderate Risk into NE TX and the Slight Risk has been extended a touch closer to SE TX. We will see if storms can fire across our Northern areas (N of I-10) later today and this afternoon...all depending on just how far S the Upper Level energy will pass and where the boundary sets up to our N...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
NE TX/SE OK ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AR...NW LA...NW MS...AND FAR WRN
TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM ERN TX/OK NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN
OH AND PA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET
OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER N TX/OK TODAY...AND NEWD
OVER AR/MO TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEWD FROM S CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING TO SW MO THIS EVENING
AND NW IL LATE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SLY/SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD AND THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS. INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A RISK
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH SEVERAL
MESOSCALE FACTORS ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST.

...NE TX/SE OK ENEWD TO WRN TN/NW MS THROUGH TONIGHT...
COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS ALREADY UNFOLDING THIS MORNING WITH THE
WEAKENING COLD POOL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEING OVERTAKEN BY
ANOTHER MCS MOVING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO SW AR. THIS MCS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN AR...GENERATING ANOTHER COLD POOL AND INHIBITING
NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IN AR. THE MCS WILL INITIALLY POSE
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
RISK FOR SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE ON THE S/SW FLANK OF THE MCS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES FROM NE TX INTO SRN AR. FARTHER W IN
N/NE TX AND SE OK...SOME NWD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING STORMS...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED E/SE OF THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT IN N TX...AS A RESULT OF UPPER 60S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...WHERE THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG /EFFECTIVE SRH OF
250-350 M2 PER S2/ TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN NE TX/SE OK...AND SPREADING INTO NW LA
AND CENTRAL/SRN AR LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

...NRN AR/SRN MO/IL THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO
THREAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE STABILIZING IMPACTS OF ONGOING
AND EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE NWD EXTENT OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...SUCH THAT
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS LIKELY INVOF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE S WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO RISK THIS FAR N.

...ERN OH/PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD TOWARD NE OH/NW PA BY THIS EVENING...AND
THIS WAVE WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
WARM FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS PA TODAY. THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETTER DEFINED ACROSS ERN OH/NW PA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE PATH OF THE WEAK WAVE...BUT THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY BASED ON
LINGERING CLOUDS/RAIN. FARTHER E IN PA...SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ARE EXPECTED E OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HERE...THERE WILL BE NO CLEAR FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ASIDE FROM THE WARM FRONT. IF STORMS DO FORM...VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME HAIL.

...TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN A NW-SE CORRIDOR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SURFACE HEATING
AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20 C COULD SUPPORT
HIGH-BASED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAIL
AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINAL
SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/25/2011

Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:23 am

Morning visible imagery is giving some clues where activity may fire today. Several boundaries are showing up. One is located just to the NW of the Hill Country area extending NE into the DFW area. Another is depicted near the San Antonio area. Something to watch as the day progresses.

Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:54 am

A bit early in the day, but the HRRR is suggesting storms near College Station for this evening...

Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:13 am

HGX Update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS ALOFT COUPLED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. HAVE ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-45. AM EXPECTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTY. SPC HAS UPGRADED PARTS OF
THE CWA TO MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAKEST
OVER THE OUTLOOKED AREA AND AM EXPECTING A FEW STORMS TO CLIP THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.ECMWF...GFS AND RUC
NOT NEARLY SO BULLISH. WILL LEAVE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS. FEEL
CAP WILL HOLD SOUTH OF I-10 AND FEEL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH.

Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:53 am

Keeping an eye on Central TX. There is a fairly potent jet streak (500mb level advancing E and NE). That feature may aid rapid development as we near the afternoon hours...meanwhile severe storms are firing near the DFW area...

Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:57 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK TO
SOUTHERN AR/NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251546Z - 251645Z

A SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO
SOUTHERN OK INCLUDING AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF I-35. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

WHILE LOW LEVEL COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN AND HINDER SURFACE HEATING
TO A DEGREE...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH WAS
ALREADY INDICATIVE OF VERY LITTLE INHIBITION. AIDED BY A PROMINENT
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT ADVANCING COLD
FRONT/MODESTLY EASTWARD0ACCELERATING DRYLINE...FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...INITIAL
MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE
ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE PRE-COLD FRONTAL/DRYLINE
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A CONSIDERABLE
CONCERN AS WELL AS STORMS CONGEAL/INCREASE ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2011

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:05 am

Tornado Watch issued. TX Counties:

Code: Select all

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TORNADO WATCH 201 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC035-037-063-067-085-097-113-119-121-139-143-147-159-181-183-
203-213-217-221-223-231-251-257-277-315-337-343-349-367-379-387-
397-423-425-439-449-459-467-497-499-252300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0201.110425T1600Z-110425T2300Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOSQUE               BOWIE               CAMP
CASS                 COLLIN              COOKE
DALLAS               DELTA               DENTON
ELLIS                ERATH               FANNIN
FRANKLIN             GRAYSON             GREGG
HARRISON             HENDERSON           HILL
HOOD                 HOPKINS             HUNT
JOHNSON              KAUFMAN             LAMAR
MARION               MONTAGUE            MORRIS
NAVARRO              PARKER              RAINS
RED RIVER            ROCKWALL            SMITH
SOMERVELL            TARRANT             TITUS
UPSHUR               VAN ZANDT           WISE
WOOD
$$


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...TSA...OUN...

Mon Apr 25, 2011 2:38 pm

Getting closer to home...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY TO EASTERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251916Z - 252015Z

MONITORING FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL TX/TX HILL COUNTRY INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TX. PORTIONS
OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 201 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AND/OR
AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON TO THE SOUTH OF TORNADO WW
201.

AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX/TX HILL COUNTRY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES A REGION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL TX...AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL
SEVERE THREAT /AT LEAST IN AN ISOLATED SENSE/ ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE THAT CURRENT RESIDES PARALLEL TO/BUT ABOUT
60-80 MILES WEST OF I-35. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2011

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

Mon Apr 25, 2011 2:58 pm

Why did SPC issue a new tornado watch (#204) further South and West but retracted the slight risk for severe weather back to the North

Mon Apr 25, 2011 3:59 pm

Hmm, so probably 80% of Montgomery County is inside the watch box but Montgomery is not in the county list. Strange - I never understood that. Sometimes you'll see a county IN the list and only a small sliver is in the watch box.

Logic abounds...
/sarcasm

Mon Apr 25, 2011 4:32 pm

What is going on?!?! Can someone tell me if Tornado Watch #204 exists or not? It shows up in my local NWS, and then disappears, and then shows up again. It's not on the national map of the NWS site, but it is still showing as active on the SPC site. Strange things are afoot...

Mon Apr 25, 2011 5:22 pm

even though you're aware of this, it's just depressing to read it

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/7536575.html

Experts: Drought could continue in southern U.S.
By ANGELA K. BROWN
© 2011 The Associated Press
April 25, 2011, 5:13PM

FORT WORTH, Texas — Weather experts say an extreme drought that has gripped parts of nine states is expected to drag on for several months or intensify.

Portions of Texas and a small part of eastern Louisiana are the only parts of the nation that rank in the National Weather Service's worst drought condition category.

The rest of Texas and Louisiana also are very parched, as are parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Florida.

Weather experts say May could be the last chance for relief. That's because May typically brings the most rainfall in some of the bone-dry states, including Texas and Oklahoma.

The dry conditions have already led to wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Florida.

April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

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