April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

[srainhoutx]

Some of the meso models are suggesting isolated storm activity breaking out across portions of Central and N TX this afternoon/evening. SPC has extended the Slight Risk further SW in TX to include San Antonio and Austin areas. SPC Update:

...TX...

TSTM POTENTIAL AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO WEAK OR
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. NONETHELESS...MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND W OF DRYLINE...BOOSTING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S. SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE
DEVELOP TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS...THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4000+ J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
COOL AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

[srainhoutx]

Mighty warm out there for April 19th...

Code: Select all

SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLLEGE STN    MOSUNNY   94  62  34 S17G28    29.74F HX  94
*CALDWELL      MOSUNNY   90  64  43 S12G25    29.77F HX  91
*CROCKETT      MOSUNNY  N/A N/A N/A S15G26    29.78F
*BRENHAM       MOSUNNY   90  61  37 S20G26    29.76F
HUNTSVILLE     MOSUNNY   93  60  33 S14G32    29.76F HX  93
CONROE         MOSUNNY   91  60  35 S18G33    29.78F HX  90
HOUSTON BUSH   PTSUNNY   90  67  46 S17G25    29.79F HX  93
HOUSTON HOBBY  MOSUNNY   87  72  60 S21G28    29.80F HX  93
*HOUSTON SW AP MOSUNNY   88  70  55 S12G21    29.80F HX  92
PEARLAND       MOSUNNY   84  72  65 S16G28    29.83
HOUSTON HOOKS  MOSUNNY   91  63  39 S17G29    29.77F HX  92
ELLINGTON FLD  PTSUNNY   86  72  62 S18       29.84S HX  92
SUGAR LAND     MOSUNNY   89  69  51 S22G31    29.79F HX  93
*HOUSTON EXEC  MOSUNNY   91  66  43 S28G35    29.78F HX  94
*CLEVELAND MUN MOSUNNY   88  70  55 S14G21    29.80F HX  92
*WHARTON       SUNNY     90  68  48 S24G35    29.78F HX  93

[TexasBreeze]

Maybe the increased heat out there will help break the cap? Hm well probably not. As the title says, drought continues...

[wxman57]

Maybe the increased heat out there will help break the cap? Hm well probably not. As the title says, drought continues...

No amount of heat could make it rain today. The air aloft is just too dry.

[srainhoutx]

Storms firing just N of Dallas/Ft Worth this afternoon...

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Central TX...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CORSICANA TEXAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 154...WW 155...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE-COLD FRONT INTERSECTION...WITH THE STORMS FED BY STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE COMBINATION OF
MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY
LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER S...MORE ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE STALLED DRYLINE IN THE
HILL COUNTRY...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE
CAP...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32020.


...THOMPSON

[wxman666]

From NWS HGX....

"000
FXUS64 KHGX 200457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/
JUST SOME MINOR COSMETIC TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT MAINLY TO
BRING CLOUD COVER UP TO DATE BASED ON BLOWOFF FROM EARLIER STORMS
TO THE NORTH AND ALSO DEVELOPING STRATUS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FWIW...00Z NAM12 SHOWS SHRA/TSTMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN
NE TX/LA WED AFTN AND BACKBUILDING THEM TOWARD THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CNTL TX WED EVNG. OTHER MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR SETUP BUT THE 00Z NAM12 LOOKS TO BE FURTHEST SOUTH AND
AFFECTS THE NRN 1/2 OF OUR CWA. THOUGH THEY COULD DEFINITELY USE
SOME RAIN...SUSPECT ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL QUITE POSSIBLY BE
SEVERE. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW DECIPHER THE LATER 00Z MODELS
AND UPDATE THE FCST IF NEED BE. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE LOW PROBABILITY
POPS BUT HIGH PROBABILITY OF SVR WX SHOULD ANYTHING ACTUALLY POP.
47"

[srainhoutx]

The models continue to advertise a very deep and rather strong long wave trough across the Central US for early next week. While it is difficult to become too excited about rain chances locally, it does appear this may provide at least a better shot at some rain for TX. The down side is this will likely provide for a very large and widespread severe weather event as well. Something to watch as we head into the Easter weekend and early next week...

[jasons2k]

The models continue to advertise a very deep and rather strong long wave trough across the Central US for early next week. While it is difficult to become too excited about rain chances locally, it does appear this may provide at least a better shot at some rain for TX. The down side is this will likely provide for a very large and widespread severe weather event as well. Something to watch as we head into the Easter weekend and early next week...

Call me crazy, but I'll take a good old-fashioned severe weather outbreak if I can get some decent rain. Plus, I'd like some exciting weather for a change...this looks like this most promising system in a long time....now hopefully I didn't just jinx it!

[redneckweather]

It looks like we could see a storm or two try to sneak into our area later today once we hit peak heating. I got my fingers crossed that one might set up shop over my house for at least 20 minutes!!!

[srainhoutx]

My concern re: rain chances today, are the front may not make it as far S as College Station that the models are indicating. Well will see...fingers crossed though...

Updated SPC Outlook for today:

...SRN/ERN TX ENE INTO THE GULF CST STATES...
IN WAKE OF MCV-SUSTAINED MCS NOW IN N GA...A FEW CLUSTERS/SHORT
BANDS OF STORMS MAY PERSIST ALONG BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING...FROM LA EWD INTO GA.
SOME REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL...AND SHEAR
QUITE WEAK...SO SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MULTICELLS WITH SPOTTY SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

FARTHER W...GREATER INSTABILITY/STEEPER LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
EXIST ON WRN EDGE OF RICH LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS IN TX. THIS SETUP MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OR TWO OF MORE INTENSE STORMS ONCE
EML CAP IS BREACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WEAK SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND EARLY IN STORM LIFE CYCLES INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

[srainhoutx]

FYI: SPC has just gone online with their new interactive Hazard Graphics within the past hour...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[jasons2k]

Working from home today

The clouds have mixed-out. Now, bring on that cap-busting heat!!

[unome]

very cool - tks !

FYI: SPC has just gone online with their new interactive Hazard Graphics within the past hour...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[jasons2k]

We'll see:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1054 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH
CAPES AND VERY LOW LI`S THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND.
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Skies have cleared near San Angelo and the frontal boundary shows up nicely of visible imagery. As Jason noted, we are under full hazy sunshine now and local temps are rising. SCP notes areas near and just NW of the Hill Country as having a significant threat of hail. We'll see what the afternoon brings. Oh, and Happy Birthday Kludge...

[jasons2k]

The front is still an awfully long ways up there. I've been waiting all morning - now 2:00 - for the wind shift to cross PWG (Waco) and it hasn't happened yet. We would need a very strong push from some outflow boundaries to see something this far south. I'm not saying it can't happen, but I can't get my hopes up just yet...

[Kludge]

Skies have cleared near San Angelo and the frontal boundary shows up nicely of visible imagery. As Jason noted, we are under full hazy sunshine now and local temps are rising. SCP notes areas near and just NW of the Hill Country as having a significant threat of hail. We'll see what the afternoon brings. Oh, and Happy Birthday Kludge...

Thanks, Steve...!!! The only birthday present I want is RAIN. I'm up here in the "Exceptional" drought category, as you know. It's just too sad to describe...poor farmers and rancher.

We're up to 92 already under hazy sun... if the front can just droop down a little more to squash the cockroach cap... maybe there's hope.

Hey Jason! Welcome to the work-from-home thingy (if only for today). Thank God for telecommuting...!

- Gaylon

[jasons2k]

Happy Birthday Gaylon!!

Luckily, I do get to work from home once a week or so. I usually save it for Fridays but I'm taking this Friday off

I hear you on the need for rain. I can only imagine what it must be like up there, although we are borderline "exceptional" here in your old stomping grounds. Unfortunately, I don't think today will be the day. Maybe next week...

[srainhoutx]

Fingers crossed for the San Angelo area. The fires have been just terrible out that way...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201852Z - 201945Z

ISOLD-WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED FIRST /AROUND 20Z/ NEAR A
MESOLOW-TRIPLE POINT INVOF THE WRN PORTION OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1008 MB LOW 35 MI SSW SJT WHERE A N-S
DRYLINE IS INTERSECTING A STALLED FRONT ELONGATED FROM THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY NEWD INTO NERN TX. THIS IS WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
ADDITION TO HEATING ARE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWELLING CU
FIELD NEAR AND ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES. THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR IS HEATING CONSIDERABLY AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 80-90S
AMIDST MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO RESOLVE WEAKENING INHIBITION INVOF
THE SWELLING CU FIELD...AND SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR
AROUND 20Z.

ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER MARGINAL...MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 04/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...