Subtropical Development N of Leewards

[Katdaddy]

Perhaps an early start to the season.

Miami AFD:

AN INTERESTING PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE
UPCOMING DAYS. A TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS (ALONG APPROX 60W 20-25N). BOTH
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP THIS INTO A LOW (SUBTROPICAL?) AND TUCK THIS
FEATURE UNDERNEATH A RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE...TAKING THE LOW TOWARDS THE S-SW TOWARDS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS WHILE OPENING UP INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY
MOVING W-NW AND ACROSS SOUTH FL/KEYS LATE MON-EARLY TUE. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ON A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE SE WIND FLOW BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS.

[wxman57]

All the models develop a low north of Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic in a few days. But the low is in a very high shear environment, so it's unlikely to be anything tropical.