February Ends Warm and Dry

[srainhoutx]

This could be an interesting storm...

[skidog38]

This could be an interesting storm...

is it going to be at freezing mark quicker when the front passes through?

[srainhoutx]

Let's see what the night brings, skidog38. That meso model suggests a deepening low pressure. Frontogenesis ( that helps surge cold air along and means 'birth of a front', if you will ) and plentiful low level moisture spells trouble for some, IMO.

[BiggieSmalls]

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USTX ... t_Temps:SC

This thing has a SHARP dip to it; it reached Midland and OKC at about the same time. The edge moving through OKC seems to be making almost no progress toward North Texas. Are we sure this thing is AHEAD of schedule, unless you happen to live south of Midland/Odessa?

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 090116Z - 090415Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 05-06Z.

ABOVE A SHALLOW STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS /WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE REGION AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
SATURATING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AT THE SAME TIME...A ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL IS SPREADING
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE REGION INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z. AS MID-LEVEL LIFT SATURATES THE MIXED PHASE
LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SNOW RATES
WILL INTENSIFY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
HIGHER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
IN NARROW TONGUE TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY NOT IMPACT SNOW
RATES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT....BUT IT APPEARS HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR LATE THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/09/2011


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z’s have started. Something tells me the 'night crew' may have some input…

NCEP Operational Status Message
Wed Feb 9 01:22:07 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 090121
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0117Z WED FEB 09 2011
00Z RAOB RECAP...
DDC/72451 - 10142.
GYX/74389 - 10150.
MZT/76458 - 10159.
MZL/76654 - 19159.
KPP/78970 - 19159.
PPG/91765 - 10159.
YAK/70361 - 10142.
YSA/71600 - MISSING PART B.
CWD CONTS.. NCEP..NWSTG..NCF AND NWS SOUTHERN REGION WILL
PARTICIPATE.. DUE TO WINTER STORM ACROSS SRN REGION.. THRU
10/13Z.$$
NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[srainhoutx]

NAM suggests a close call...

[srainhoutx]

Mighty close...

[sambucol]

Our city library has a notice on their website that says:

Due to the threat of inclement weather Wednesday evening, the library will close at 5pm. It will reopen at its normal time on Thursday.

A friend texted me and asked what was going on with the weather to cause the library to close early. Are we expecting freezing drizzle tomorrow evening? Thanks.

[txsnowmaker]

Srain, close enough to possibly trigger an HGX winter weather advisory? (assuming other models trended this way)

[wxman666]

Our city library has a notice on their website that says:

Due to the threat of inclement weather Wednesday evening, the library will close at 5pm. It will reopen at its normal time on Thursday.

A friend texted me and asked what was going on with the weather to cause the library to close early. Are we expecting freezing drizzle tomorrow evening? Thanks.

Is that in Baytown?

[sambucol]

Our city library has a notice on their website that says:

Due to the threat of inclement weather Wednesday evening, the library will close at 5pm. It will reopen at its normal time on Thursday.

A friend texted me and asked what was going on with the weather to cause the library to close early. Are we expecting freezing drizzle tomorrow evening? Thanks.

Is that in Baytown?

Yes, it's in Baytown.

[sambucol]

Here's the link: http://www.baytownlibrary.org/

[wxman57]

Our city library has a notice on their website that says:

Due to the threat of inclement weather Wednesday evening, the library will close at 5pm. It will reopen at its normal time on Thursday.

A friend texted me and asked what was going on with the weather to cause the library to close early. Are we expecting freezing drizzle tomorrow evening? Thanks.

The inclement weather will be cold air and a clearing sky tomorrow evening. Just a freeze, no ice. Precip should be over with there before 5pm.

[wxman666]

Here's the link: http://www.baytownlibrary.org/

They got their days wrong, lol. Should be Wednesday & Thursday not Thursday & Friday. At any rate...I have a hard time believing they'd close for the cold, they must be anticipating/preparing for something else.

[sambucol]

The inclement weather will be cold air and a clearing sky tomorrow evening. Just a freeze, no ice. Precip should be over with there before 5pm.

They have never closed early for cold air before.

[srainhoutx]

Impressive snow band across the Panhandle this evening...

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/09/11 0229Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0215Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
LOCATION...KANSAS...NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...
ATTN WFOS...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS SE INTO TX PANHANDLE ENE THROUGH OK INTO SE KS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
OVERALL TROF AXIS PROGRESSING EAST WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UL PATTERN OVER
DISCUSSION REGION. IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BAROCLINIC LEAF SATELLITE
SIGNATURE OVER N OK/S KS WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS SITUATED. HEAVIEST SNOW IS
ON A WSW TO ENE AXIS FROM TX PANHANDLE THROUGH N OK INTO EXTREME S KS
UNDER THE SE EDGE OF ENHANCEMENT IN LEAF SATELLITE STRUCTURE. IR IMAGERY
HAS ALSO SHOWN BETTER ENHANCEMENT OVER TX PANHANDLE INTO W OK AND EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO DECREASE OVER S KS AND A GENERAL FOCUS OF BEST BANDING OVER
TX PANHANDLE INTO N OK. HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED IN SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
WITH OVER 50 DEG F TEMP GRADIENT FROM N TX N TO S KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUTHERLY WAA AT 85H PER RUC/VWP'S. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0230-0530Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TX PANHANDLE ENE THROUGH
SE KS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH RATES IN THE 1-2"/HR IN
BEST BANDING MORE FOCUSED OVER TX PANHANDLE/OK. WITH AREAS IN KS SEEING
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES TODAY THE SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED
CLOSELY TO SEE WHERE BEST BANDING

[txsnowmaker]

Well, fwiw there is at least one area pro-met on another site predicting ice on overpasses post-frontal passage tomorrow. Perhaps our friends at the Baytown City Library are on to something.

[weatherguy425]

^^ To the North and West of Houston.