February Ends Warm and Dry

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite has revealed some interesting information. The 12Z 144 UKMET is not in, but enough data has come in to offer enough clues as to what is going on. First, the guidance (virtually all of it) is under estimating the cold air mass. 2 meter temps, MAV, MOS are all too high regarding what is happening real time. Will it make any difference? That remains to be seen. Now regarding the movement of the front. It appears to be heading S a bit faster than forecast. Does that have any significant affect on our sensible weather? Perhaps not. What may well be an issue is the increasing threat to a wintry mix versus snow for those areas expecting that scenario. We'll need to see how the afternoon progresses as well as over night to see if there may be any changes ahead. I would not be surprised to see Austin/San Antonio issue a Winter Weather Advisory before the end of the afternoon. As has been stated, hopefully this is the last hurrah regarding these very cold temps and wintry weather threat for us. I suspect we are all about ready for a change to warmer weather.

[Cuda17]

NWS HGX just took us (Bellville) out of the all rain and put us in the wintry mix category for tomorrow!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

[srainhoutx]

It will be interesting to see if HGX mentions the latest 18Z NAM. If it were to verify, there may be some raised eyebrows for areas N and W of DT Houston. That model is coming in colder and faster with the front and also suggests wrap around post frontal moisture with temps being somewhat borderline. We shall see…

[djmike]

NWS HGX just took us (Bellville) out of the all rain and put us in the wintry mix category for tomorrow!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

Hmmm...interesting!

[txsnowmaker]

It will be interesting to see if HGX mentions the latest 18Z NAM. If it were to verify, there may be some raised eyebrows for areas N and W of DT Houston. That model is coming in colder and faster with the front and also suggests wrap around post frontal moisture with temps being somewhat borderline. We shall see…

Very interesting and thank you for posting srain. Being west of downtown Houston by about 8 miles, I just checked the NWS forecast for my neighborhood, which reads as follows (note that it calls for 10% chance of precip before 8 but temps already down to 35 by 5). I imagine this also does not yet take into account the 18Z NAM run. Also, with a 70% chance of rain, are we not looking at an issue with icy roads?


Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 35 by 5pm. Windy, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night: A 10 percent chance of rain before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, Waller point and click has updated to 1 hour of freezing drizzle as well. That is certainly S and E of Brenham. I see the SPS has been removed from the HGX site as well.

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison between the 12Z and 18Z NAM. I only plotted the noon position of the freeze line. Blue is this morning's run, yellow is the noon run. The freeze line is about 10-20 miles southeast of the 12Z run. But it still appears that precip will end here (and east of here) before the temps drop below freezing both at the surface and aloft.

And this is a much shallower airmass than last week, so the sub-freezing air would not be deep enough to support snow even if there is precip in the sub-freezing air down here.

[wxman57]

One other thing. With the VERY strong (and dry) NW winds behind the front, any wet roads should dry quite quickly tomorrow afternoon. So it's unlikely there would be any travel issues if it rains then goes sub-freezing a few hours later.

18Z NAM fully in now, here's a meteogram. Note that the 0.03" precip (last green bar) falls between noon and 3pm, not AT 3pm. This indicates precip is ending with the temperature in the upper 30s, as indicated by the red arrow. Also note 850mb temps (5000ft up) in the 42-43F range at 3pm. NAM is saying some cold rain then precip ends, things dry out quickly, and temps drop to below freezing at IAH by 3pm.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Winter Weather Advisory for N and W part of SE TX...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM
WEDNESDAY...

.STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET.

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210>212-091200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.110209T1600Z-110209T2300Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CROCKETT...
EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...PRAIRIE VIEW...
SEALY...TRINITY...WEIMAR
312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE ADVISORY REGION MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET. THE THREAT WILL PROGRESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OFF QUICKLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ENDING THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT.

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT
WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME COVERED
WITH A THIN LAYER OF PATCHY ICE MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

[Andrew]

A very interesting thing to note is that this system has slowly tracked farther south in terms of where Wintry percip will setup. Who knows what we will be looking at tomm. If the front continues at the speed it is at now who knows what tomm will bring for us.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...HARD FREEZE WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.VERY COLD AIR MASS USHERED BY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-091200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HZ.A.0002.110210T0700Z-110210T1400Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL USHER VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION DROPPING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO SEVERAL HOURS BELOW FREEZING.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE FOR 2 HOURS OR MORE.

[Andrew]

GFS has the cold air coming down a bit quicker

[srainhoutx]

GFS has the cold air coming down a bit quicker

I noticed it also suggests a bit more post frontal moisture as well.

[srainhoutx]

Austin/San Antonio issues Winter Weather Advisory as well...

[sleetstorm]

This is becoming interesting by the second, minute, and hour. I wonder how much more interesting it will be by tonight and into tomorrow?

[srainhoutx]

There is nothing warm about those SE breezes today. 53F for a high temp up here. The Gulf is mighty chilly!

[Andrew]

There is nothing warm about those SE breezes today. 53F for a high temp up here. The Gulf is mighty chilly!

Yea that is what I am thinking too. I wonder how the 00z models will come out tonight. Will they continue the subtle trends?

[mwbwhorton]

Not quite sure where to post as this is not going to effect metro Houston but anyways im in a winter storm warning for tommorrow expecting 1-3 inches of snow tommorrow afternoon with 2-4 more inches tommorrow night if this happens it will certainly make my winter im in ne louisiana btw.......

[srainhoutx]

You've posted in the perfect place, mwbwhorton. Good luck up there. Post Pics!

[Andrew]

Not quite sure where to post as this is not going to effect metro Houston but anyways im in a winter storm warning for tommorrow expecting 1-3 inches of snow tommorrow afternoon with 2-4 more inches tommorrow night if this happens it will certainly make my winter im in ne louisiana btw.......

Good luck we over here will be looking at a cold rain.