February Ends Warm and Dry

[tireman4]

I can live with climo for the month. No 80 degree days thank you very much.

[srainhoutx]

Tomorrow looks chilly again in GFS world.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS suggests wintry weather for the TX Panhadle/OK and some wintry weather across N TX. Further S, it's look close, but fairly damp...

[ndale]

It looks like I might get into a some wintry mix where I will be in Leakey perhaps? The NWS show a very raw day on Wednesday with high's barely getting above freezing with moisture in place. Interesting.

Based on the current forecast, you would be encountering some nasty winter conditions as you approach the Hill Country.

I grew up in the hill country (Kerrville) and when those hills are icy you don't go anywhere. If you in a low spot where the only way out is uphill, you are not going anywhere till the ice melts.

[Ptarmigan]

As wxman57 stated, the pattern change to warmer weather is in the cards for TX. That said, the warm up across the US may be a bit of a temporary week break before the cold returns to part (Northern Areas) of the CONUS as an Aleutian Ridge builds and cold air returns to AK and Western Canada. There are also suggestions the -AO/-NAO will return and ‘hints’ of a robust Polar Vortex establishing on our side of the globe...we shall see…

I pointed out that after a freeze happens in early February, it warms up and then gets cold again, usually towards the end of February and in March.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) suggests no wintry weather in N TX today. That model as is close regarding moisture and cold, but suggests a cold rain mid week.

[srainhoutx]

HPC: Waiting on Euro before making any changes. (Model Diagnostic Discussions)

...WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES EARLY DAY 2...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 12Z/06 ECMWF

THE NAM...GFS...GEM GLOBAL...AND UKMET ARE ALL LESS SHARP WITH
THIS WAVE ONCE IT TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY DAY 3
THAN THE 00Z/06 ECMWF. CONSIDERING THE TRENDING THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z/06
ECMWF TO MAKE A CALL HERE.


...ARCTIC FRONT DIPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 12Z/06 ECMWF

THE NAM AND UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE THAN
THE 00Z/06 ECMWF...WITH THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL OFFERING THE
FLATTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS. WITH THE ONGOING SPREAD IN THE
MODELS...WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z/06 ECMWF TO MAKE A CALL HERE.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests wintry weather across the Panhandle/W TX/N TX. It also looks chilly behind the front...although a brief cool down...

02062011 12Z Euro f72.gif

02062011 12Z Euro f96.gif

02062011 12Z Euro f120.gif

[Ptarmigan]

I thought to have snow, it has to be at 32F or below at the upper levels. I happen to at this link.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

I looked at +1" snow events. Here is what I noticed the temperature at 5,000 feet.
1/30/1949=-5C
2/12/1960=+2.5C
1/11/1973=0C
2/9-10/1973=-5C
2/17-18//1973=0C
2/2/1980=-2.5C
12/22/1989=-2/5C
12/24/2004=-2.5C
12/10/2008=+5C
12/4/2009=-2C

[wxman57]

That 8-10 day pattern of the Euro/GFS sure makes it look like we'll see 80 degrees the third week of February! It is currently 71 deg at my house, but we were fairly cold sitting outside for lunch at Discovery Green.

[srainhoutx]

Not much, if any change with the HGX afternoon update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF ACT TO THE HILL
COUNTRY. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NW ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...TO HOUSTON METRO AREA MID EVENING
AND SHOULD APPROACH GALVESTON LATE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER
THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR/ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY OCCURRING OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF CWFA THIS EVENING. WEAK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING MODEL VERTICAL PROFILES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
THIS MID AFTERNOON INDICATE A CONVERGING FLOW FROM JUST WEST OF
GLS TO WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY WITH RELATIVELY COOL SE FLOW OVER
THE FAR SE COUNTIES DUE TO WINDS TRAVERSING COOL SHELF COASTAL
WATERS. NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S WERE NOTED OVER REST OF CWFA WITH
THE HIGHER READINGS OVER THE SW ZONES WITH BREEZY SW FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL
OVER REGION MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
USHERING RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NW ZONES MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DURING AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.1 INCHES SW PORTIONS OF CWFA AHEAD OF
FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT REACHING 60 EXCEPT SW PORTIONS AND
ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE LIFTED INDEX
VALUES REMAINING POSITIVE. WE SHALL SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS
WOULD INDICATE. FOR NOW WE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT SHOULD DRY QUICKLY AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MID 20S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA
WITH REMAINDER OF CWFA PROBABLY HAVING MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. WARMING TREND AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED THEN.

[Ptarmigan]

From NWS Houston.

Code: Select all

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain before midnight. Mostly cloudy and windy, with a low around 30.

[Paul]

looking at the source region....nothing really eye popping...granted with all the snow pack the air will not modify as much but I dont think we will be as cold as this last week.....Personally I think we are done this year for extreme cold here in SE TX...

time for Tropical weather....

[jgreak]

looking at the source region....nothing really eye popping...granted with all the snow pack the air will not modify as much but I dont think we will be as cold as this last week.....Personally I think we are done this year for extreme cold here in SE TX...

time for Tropical weather....

Bring it on!

[wxman57]

My coworker is reporting 1/2" hail in Conroe at 7:20pm.

[Ptarmigan]

My coworker is reporting 1/2" hail in Conroe at 7:20pm.

A line thunderstorm formed north of Houston.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx

[cristina99]

My coworker is reporting 1/2" hail in Conroe at 7:20pm.

A line thunderstorm formed north of Houston.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx

I can confirm that - it suddenly came a heavy rain storm - went outside, didn't feel any hail - if it was, it was small. As for any snow, my mom almost did her little I told you so dance this past weekend, but also said that sort of stuff happens when we least expect it. Just when people let their guard down is when it happens.

[tireman4]

Definitely seeing lightning to the north of us in Humble

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
756 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

TXZ178-179-200-070300-
LIBERTY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
756 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 748 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CLEVELAND TO CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TARKINGTON PRAIRIE...
SEGNO...ROMAYOR...MOSS HILL...LIBERTY...KENEFICK...HARDIN...DAYTON
LAKES AND CLEVELAND.

[losmabies]

We had a storm roll through about 30 minutes ago with pea sized hail. Now it is fairly clear skies (some clounds) and quiet.