February Ends Warm and Dry

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian (GEM) suggests a close call as well regarding any wintry weather chances here.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a bit of a close call as well. That model does suggest the Upper Low will track across the Northern half of TX while a surface low develops in S TX and tracks near the Coast and on E.

[tireman4]

Yes, it appears to show about 0.05" precip falling with surface temps below 32. Note 850mb temps well above freezing, indicating freezing rain vs. snow:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iahgfs12zfeb5.gif

For Dallas, though, it's another story. Quite an ice/snow storm for you folks Wednesday!
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dfwgfs12zfeb5.gif

Do you think this time they will do soundings for HGX? I mean that totally hampered the forecast last time.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro, verbatim, is a total miss on an ice storm in Houston, but if the cold air arrives 6 hours earlier than forecast, it becomes much more interesting. Less than 6 hours earlier is huge for Austin...

The Euro looks suspect. HPC Alaska Update is throwing up red flags regarding the run and the 180 flip from 00Z Op and it's ensembles, for what it's worth.

[Portastorm]

The Euro, verbatim, is a total miss on an ice storm in Houston, but if the cold air arrives 6 hours earlier than forecast, it becomes much more interesting. Less than 6 hours earlier is huge for Austin...

No thanks Ed ... no ice storm, thankyouverymuch. Don't want any of that here. If we get one, I'm gonna blame you!

The consensus from AFDs this morning across Texas seemed to be the cold air WILL arrive earlier than forecast for most of us.

[cisa]

Hey guys, just curious about gut feeling around the board. I know people area bit gun shy about projecting too far out this round, but I'm just wondering what you think about the models vs gut instinct. Anyone care to give a thought on how volital this situation could be. Just trying to wrap my brain around it. Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

The Euro, verbatim, is a total miss on an ice storm in Houston, but if the cold air arrives 6 hours earlier than forecast, it becomes much more interesting. Less than 6 hours earlier is huge for Austin...

The Euro looks suspect. HPC Alaska Update is throwing up red flags regarding the run and the 180 flip from 00Z Op and it's ensembles, for what it's worth.

Even with possible issues, it is close enough to an ice storm, far enough out, that it wasn't an "all clear" even if the absolute verbatim solution was a miss locally.

The post was meant as an FYI, not to refute your PPV data, Ed. Personally, I’ve had enough cold and moisture to last me for a long time. Unlike you, I’ll likely be replacing a long nurtured Pigmy Date Palm. I’m not real keen on the idea of anymore plant damage at this point.

[Portastorm]

Yes, unfortunately I saw that same meteogram you posted. I dread the thought. Austin's brittle power grid always collapses in ice storms. Cold, no power, and no ability to watch the Horns beat up on OU on their own court Wednesday night is not how I want to spend my Wednesday.

We had our "winter". Time for spring and looking at CAPE figures instead of thickness values.

[sobeit]

Slightly OT:

The orange tree that I got last year to replace the one that died, the garbage bag trick appears to have worked. Some damaged leaves, but some that look ok.


And the science project, the unknown citrus root stock the dearly departed seedless satsuma orange was grafted on before last season's freeze, thorny like my late lemon tree, appears like it survived.


Little victories, trying to grow tropical and sub-tropical plants in a place that has nothing between it and Siberia but barb wire fences.


As expected, the mondo-cold tolerant Washingtonia (I have two, and the subtle difference is enough I think one is Robusta, the other is Filifera, or one or both are different hybrids of the two) palms, that grow like weeds even in Houston, have laughed at this latest Arctic outbreak.

I feel your pain and sucess. I forgot to wrap my Ujukitsu (lemon orange cross) and it took it on the chin. A moment of silence please.

[srainhoutx]

Well the good news is after we get past the upcoming week, a pattern change is ahead and warmer temps are on the way...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 PM EST SAT FEB 05 2011

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 08 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 12 2011


FINAL GRAPHICS FLATTENED THE SYS ALONG THE SE COAST THU FROM THE
PRELIM RELEASES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FINAL
GRAPHICS. WE KEPT THE PREDOMINATELY 00Z/05 ECMWF ECMWF ENSEMBLE
BLEND.

MEAN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ERN CONUS TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHILE RIDGING ALONG 135W IS FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AFTER THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE EVEN WITH THE
SHORTER TERM SYSTEMS...SO DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT BEST.
HOWEVER...00Z/05 LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FLOW WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRI/D6 WITH A POTENTIALLY DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVING FROM
THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THEN INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A TROUGH IN RECENT MODEL
RUNS...THOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS THERE IN THE
ENSEMBLES.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WED/D4 SHOULD
FORM SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THU/D5. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD QUICKENED ITS PACE FROM YESTERDAY WHILE
THE CORRESPONDING GFS HAD SLOWED. THEREFORE SPREAD AMONGST THE 00Z
MODELS WITH THIS SE SYS HAS DECREASED FOR THU. QUESTIONS REMAINED
AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL STAY FLAT AND MOVE OUT TO SEA OR MORE
AMPLIFIED AND RIDE UP THE COAST. FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE OF
DATA...A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS WERE ON THE TABLE. MOST 12Z/05 MODELS
HAVE TRENDED FLATTER/MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THAT SYS AS DESCRIBED
BELOW.

DETERMINISTIC 12Z/05 MODELS:

THE NEW 12Z GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY FROM ITS 00Z RUN OVER
MOST OF THE WEATHER MAP WITH FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. IT HAS
TRENDED FLATTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN WITH THE HOTLY DEBATED POTENTIAL
STORM DEVELOPING THU ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS. IT TRACKS
THIS SYS FLATTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF ITS CONTINUITY THEREAFTER
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN/ARE ALSO FLATTER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THEY WERE IN THEIR 00Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE MOST VIGOROUS COASTAL SYS OF ALL THE NEW MODELS...AND STILL
THREATENS A SNOWSTORM FROM AR ACROSS TN/KY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. I WILL NOT SPECULATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS WITH SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME ATTM.

ONCE THE EAST COAST SYSTEM DEPARTS...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS
TO BE IN FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A MAJOR TROUGH ALONG
140W...REPLACING THE PRESENT STRONG RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN CHANGE...ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW VERY
LARGE SPREAD DEVELOPING FRI/SAT OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS
AND ADJACENT PACIFIC...AND ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE LOTS OF SHORTWAVE TIMING ISSUES OVER WRN NOAM AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD....THERE IS REAL HOPE THAT AN INVASION OF MILDER
PACIFIC AIR MAY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE COUNTRY THE LAST TWO DAYS
OF THE PERIOD AS THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS. THIS FLATTENING
ALOFT WILL BRING A BREATH OF SPRING OF SEVERAL DAYS DURATION TO
AREAS THAT HAVE HAD ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN COLD WEATHER.

THE 12Z GFS TRENDED FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NEW
MEAN TROF OFF THE W COAST SUN DAY 7 THAN 00Z CONTINUITY. THE
CORRESPONDING UKMET WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS FRI DAY 6 IN THE WAY IT
HANDLED THE ERN PACIFIC. THE NEW 12Z CANADIAN IS ON ITS OWN DAYS
6-7 FLATTENING THE PATTERN MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THAN
OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE....ALTHO IT HAS SUPPORT IN THIS
REGARD FROM SOME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FLOOD

[BiggieSmalls]

Serious temperature busts today....It is around 50 in Dallas, after the forecast said high 30's for today. Kind of surprised that the snow on the ground didn't keep the temps down more...

[Ptarmigan]

If this winter had an analog, I am inclined to go with 1950-51, 1988-89, and 1995-96. They were La Nina winters with Arctic blasts. Here is I summarize February and March

February 1951
Longest freeze in Houston from January 29 to February 3. Hits the teen from January 31 to February 2, with a low of 14 on February 2.
Warms up
Gets cold again, not as cold from February 14-16. Lowest is 29

March 1951
Warm and no freezing temperature


February 1989
Arctic Blast on February 3-8. Second longest freeze after 1951. Hits low of 23 on February 4.
Warms up, only to get cold again on February 23.

March 1989
Arctic blast hits on March 4-9. Hits low of 25 on March 5 and 6.
After that freeze, warms up.
Hits 91 on March 30.


February 1996
Arctic Blast on February 1-5. Hits a low of 22 on February 4.
Warms up from February 19-27. Hits 90 on February 22.

March 1996
Gets cold again, mainly on March 8-9 with lows of 29.

[wxman57]

Do you think this time they will do soundings for HGX? I mean that totally hampered the forecast last time.

There is a portable sounding unit kept at Texas A&M. They did one extra sounding up there, and it showed the whole airmass well below freezing (that's why they got snow in College Station). But there will be no soundings in or near Houston unless there is someone to drive to A&M and pick up the sounding unit then transport it to Houston. Then they'd have to have someone to operate it. So don't expect any soundings near us in the near future.

[srainhoutx]

HGX still mentioning wintry weather for northern zones while our neighbors to the N prepare for another big travel headache...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND DRY LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...A GOOD WARM
UP WAS NOTED ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE. READINGS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWFA RUNNING FROM NEAR 60 AND LOWER 60S FAR
SW ZONES TO MID AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED
OVER WESTERN GULF TODAY. IT WILL WARM UP NICELY SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH CLL AROUND 19Z AND THE COAST AROUND
23-00Z. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MEAGER ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CWFA. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWFA DURING THIS EVENT. AIR
MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MOVE EAST TO THE
WESTERN GULF AND LOUISIANA MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
EVIDENT TUESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARM UP. MOIST LAYER GETTING DEEPER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. VERTICAL PROFILES HOWEVER DOES NOT INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH INDICATED TO MOVE OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH MODIFIED
COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS BEING USHERED WITH THIS FRONT WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) TO THE MID 20S
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWFA AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
OTHER AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY PROBABLY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
314 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-060430-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
314 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER WITH SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NEARLY ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS...MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS LIQUID
RAIN...BUT CHANGEOVER QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. IF YOU ARE PLANNING
TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OR SURROUNDING AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...
CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS BEFORE DEPARTING.

[srainhoutx]

There remains great interest in additional data via Winter RECON missions in the Atlantic and Pacific...

NOUS42 KNHC 051830
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EST SAT 05 FEBRUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z FEBRUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. A66/ 28.6N 93.5W/ 07/1200Z
B. AFXXX 14WSA TRACK66
C. 07/0730Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/1400Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. P16/ 40.0N 164.0W/ 07/1200Z
B. AFXXX 17WSC TRACK16
C. 07/0615Z
D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/1800Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49 --
A. P81/ 26.2N 167.8E/ 07/1200Z
B. NOAA9 18WSW TRACK81
C. 07/0800Z
D. 20 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 FT TO 45,000 FT/ 07/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

[Mark25]

Do the models take into account the snow pack to our north? We are talking about a few degrees between liquid vs. Frozen. Models always seem to underestimate the temps, they did with last weeks front. I was freezing in Tomball by mid morning last week when the front arrived, and that wasn't forecast to happen until that afternoon.

[southerngale]

My forecast:

Wednesday Night: Rain or freezing drizzle likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

I'd much rather see SNOW in the forecast than freezing drizzle. Frizzle just causes problems.

After a high of 53°, it's currently 52°. Never thought low 50s could feel so warm.

[Ptarmigan]

My forecast:

Wednesday Night: Rain or freezing drizzle likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

I'd much rather see SNOW in the forecast than freezing drizzle. Frizzle just causes problems.

After a high of 53°, it's currently 52°. Never thought low 50s could feel so warm.

50s feel like 90s to me.

[noname_77065]

Yes, unfortunately I saw that same meteogram you posted. I dread the thought. Austin's brittle power grid always collapses in ice storms. Cold, no power, and no ability to watch the Horns beat up on OU on their own court Wednesday night is not how I want to spend my Wednesday.

We had our "winter". Time for spring and looking at CAPE figures instead of thickness values.

Lord that meteogram would be a disaster for Austin.... thankfully the 18z models tend to have shaky records, at best...

[unome]

found this site for Texas soundings, they apparently use some from GOES?

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/skewt/html/xtxskews2.html

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/skewt/html/lskewus.html