February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[sm040480]

The precip would probably have to intensify a bit in order for that to happpen.

Ah, but for those of us who have had solid precip (again, in whatever the heck form it's been in) since 10 or 11, we've got a nice coating already. Understandably those that have stayed relatively "dry" would fare better and need more time for "EEK!" to occur. Come first light me thinks I need to find some cleats and do some picture taking. Just wish I was going to be taking pics of our 1-3" of snow instead of Iceville, lol.

Also, David, do we know the water content of this "snow" that's supposedly headed our way? If it's a light fluffy coverage, it's discouraging on one hand but happy time on the other. If it's the heavy wet snow, then jinkies, we could be in a world of hurt rather quickly.

[Texashawk]

Did I read that map right... virtually all San Antonio freeways are closed down?

[wxman666]

Did I read that map right... virtually all San Antonio freeways are closed down?

Yes, they are.

[djjordan]

I am hearing transromers buzzing just like I did before Ike ...... I do believe it is just a matter of time before I lose power here in the Sugarland area.

[vbhoutex]

The precip would probably have to intensify a bit in order for that to happpen.

Ah, but for those of us who have had solid precip (again, in whatever the heck form it's been in) since 10 or 11, we've got a nice coating already. Understandably those that have stayed relatively "dry" would fare better and need more time for "EEK!" to occur. Come first light me thinks I need to find some cleats and do some picture taking. Just wish I was going to be taking pics of our 1-3" of snow instead of Iceville, lol.

Also, David, do we know the water content of this "snow" that's supposedly headed our way? If it's a light fluffy coverage, it's discouraging on one hand but happy time on the other. If it's the heavy wet snow, then jinkies, we could be in a world of hurt rather quickly.

Don't know the water content of what is showing on the radar, but most of the snow that I have seen reports on has not been the heavy wet snow, but the lighter more powdery type.

[wxman666]

Morning HGX Update....

000
FXUS64 KHGX 040913
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 850 MB TEMPS WERE +6 C AT LCH AND -6 C AT CRP.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IT HAS MADE
DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE A NIGHTMARE. SOUTHEAST TEXAS LIES IN A
RIGHT REAR QUAD WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE PRECIP GOING THROUGH
15Z. SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS DRYING APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIP HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT ANY RAIN ON
SUB FREEZING SURFACES WILL (AND HAS) TURN TO ICE. NUMEROUS ROAD
CLOSURES AREA WIDE AND TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED THIS MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SMALL. WILL TRIM
BACK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS FOR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 18Z.

SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL
BE COLD AND EVEN WITH THE BRIEF WARM UP...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO AM
NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS GREATER WITH
THE MID WEEK FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THU/FRI WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
20S.

[biggerbyte]

Moisture levels came up overnight. No doubt about that. Dewpoints are close to the actual temperature, so we have saturation.
Having said that, temps should hold steady. Since we are at or below freezing anyway, this is a classic setup for what we are seeing. As this low passes by, there should be a changeover to snow.

[noname_77065]

The precip would probably have to intensify a bit in order for that to happpen.

Ah, but for those of us who have had solid precip (again, in whatever the heck form it's been in) since 10 or 11, we've got a nice coating already. Understandably those that have stayed relatively "dry" would fare better and need more time for "EEK!" to occur. Come first light me thinks I need to find some cleats and do some picture taking. Just wish I was going to be taking pics of our 1-3" of snow instead of Iceville, lol.

Also, David, do we know the water content of this "snow" that's supposedly headed our way? If it's a light fluffy coverage, it's discouraging on one hand but happy time on the other. If it's the heavy wet snow, then jinkies, we could be in a world of hurt rather quickly.

166636_10100460605315130_7932085_67889469_5372338_n2.jpg (83.02 KiB) Viewed 5240 times

It's a dry snow here. The kind you'd see in Colorado. I took this about 45 minutes ago, but I haven't been brave enough to go back out yet.

[Poltracker]

Did I read that map right... virtually all San Antonio freeways are closed down?

Yes, they are.

Looks like SA AND Austin

[wxman666]

Did I read that map right... virtually all San Antonio freeways are closed down?

Yes, they are.

Looks like SA AND Austin

I wouldn't be shocked to see Houston go that same route. It's been an absolute nightmare this morning!

[wxman666]

Moisture levels came up overnight. No doubt about that. Dewpoints are close to the actual temperature, so we have saturation.
Having said that, temps should hold steady. Since we are at or below freezing anyway, this is a classic setup for what we are seeing. As this low passes by, there should be a changeover to snow.

Just out of curiosity, why are they so much less confident on snow now?

[sm040480]

It's a dry snow here. The kind you'd see in Colorado. I took this about 45 minutes ago, but I haven't been brave enough to go back out yet.

Thanks for the pic. I have that white stuff here as well, ok, except for the fact that it's ICE and not fluffy goodness.

[biggerbyte]

Radar shows the freezing rain to be moving into Liberty County now. At the same time, that band of snow is heading east and northeast. I've been watching it. It seems to be moving and building more to the north as the band moved toward us, which in turn may not effect our area at all, excepting the most northern counties.

We'll see...

[noname_77065]

Did I read that map right... virtually all San Antonio freeways are closed down?

Looks like SA AND Austin

I wouldn't be shocked to see Houston go that same route. It's been an absolute nightmare this morning!

I just saw some schmuck try and leave my apartment complex. He basically tried to turn around a curve and fishtailed and hit a curb. No one between here, SA, Houston, Corpus, and Dallas is going anywhere until we get above freezing tomorrow.

[biggerbyte]

Moisture levels came up overnight. No doubt about that. Dewpoints are close to the actual temperature, so we have saturation.
Having said that, temps should hold steady. Since we are at or below freezing anyway, this is a classic setup for what we are seeing. As this low passes by, there should be a changeover to snow.

Just out of curiosity, why are they so much less confident on snow now?

Not sure! Maybe the actual track of the low. We need that to pass over us if we are to get much in the way of snow. We are seeing mainly freezing rain right now for a reason.

[Bluefalcon]

What a night here in Round Rock! 2.3 inches in my backyard. Snow is covering the grass, holding in the trees, and blanketing the roof tops. 1st round is coming to an end May get a 2nd round about sunrise . I hope y'all get the white stuff, instead of the wet stuff over in SE Texas!

[wxman666]

What a night here in Round Rock! 2.3 inches in my backyard. Snow is covering the grass, holding in the trees, and blanketing the roof tops. 1st round is coming to an end May get a 2nd round about sunrise . I hope y'all get the white stuff, instead of the wet stuff over in SE Texas!

If only it were just wet stuff, lol. We have officially been turned into an ice rink!

[wxman666]

Moisture levels came up overnight. No doubt about that. Dewpoints are close to the actual temperature, so we have saturation.
Having said that, temps should hold steady. Since we are at or below freezing anyway, this is a classic setup for what we are seeing. As this low passes by, there should be a changeover to snow.

Just out of curiosity, why are they so much less confident on snow now?

Not sure! Maybe the actual track of the low. We need that to pass over us if we are to get much in the way of snow. We are seeing mainly freezing rain right now for a reason.

Hmm...we'll see what it does. Most of the time, nature just does what it pleases.

[biggerbyte]

I am going to sleep for a bit before the potential snowband gets here. It is the white stuff I'm after.

[wxman666]

I will be watching it guys. Great job as always, night shift.