February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[djjordan]

I am looking at about a .10 tenth of ice accumulation right now in SGR ..... the morning commute is looking to be very nasty for anyone trying to go to work. This accumulation happened real quick too and with just light freezing rain/drizzle.

[Andrew]

Should slowly see things continue to change over towards snow as the atmosphere cools down via evaporation cooling and dynamic cooling associated with the UL. Current forecasts look to be on track. Roads are extremely dangerous now and travel is discouraged through tomorrow morning. Stay safe out there you all!

soo, we are still looking at Snow? I guess as you and Andrew were discussing earlier, the ULL is behind? Thanks for helping us

looks like svrwx got offline, Andrew, weatherag? any ideas from my questions to svrwx?

He says ENE I see East but hey whatever. I think by the time we get to morning we will see some good returns from the ULL as it brings moisture north.

[svrwx0503]

Should slowly see things continue to change over towards snow as the atmosphere cools down via evaporation cooling and dynamic cooling associated with the UL. Current forecasts look to be on track. Roads are extremely dangerous now and travel is discouraged through tomorrow morning. Stay safe out there you all!

soo, we are still looking at Snow? I guess as you and Andrew were discussing earlier, the ULL is behind? Thanks for helping us

looks like svrwx got offline, Andrew, weatherag? any ideas from my questions to svrwx?

It still think we will see some snow, especially after 2-3am as the UL gets a little bit closer. As Andrew pointed out it is moving a bit slower then expected but overall things are still on track. We probably won't see the type of accumulations we once were expecting but some snow is still expected across much of the region. With a layer of snow over the ice we are getting now is going to make for very dangerous driving conditions.

[Rich]

very good freezing rain now...streets are wet...and the car is becoming a block of ice.....Pearland

Freezing rain really coming down here on myside of Pearland as well!! This is looking like in may get pretty bad around here!

[redneckweather]

Well I have been looking at reports and their is not 1 solid snow report in the area and it i going on 1 am. I'm trying to figure out what is going on here. I am at 26 degrees with a dew point of 26 and not even a flake...just solid freezing drizzle for the past hour and half? Oh well, I'm going to bed. I will get up at 3 to look at things.

[wxman666]

Roads getting nasty pretty quickly in my part of Cypress.

[Frigid Aggie]

very good freezing rain now...streets are wet...and the car is becoming a block of ice.....Pearland

Our streets and sidewalks here are very wet, but it is not staying frozen. Only on non-ground surfaces am I seeing any ice accumulation.

[Andrew]

Should slowly see things continue to change over towards snow as the atmosphere cools down via evaporation cooling and dynamic cooling associated with the UL. Current forecasts look to be on track. Roads are extremely dangerous now and travel is discouraged through tomorrow morning. Stay safe out there you all!

soo, we are still looking at Snow? I guess as you and Andrew were discussing earlier, the ULL is behind? Thanks for helping us

looks like svrwx got offline, Andrew, weatherag? any ideas from my questions to svrwx?

It still think we will see some snow, especially after 2-3am as the UL gets a little bit closer. As Andrew pointed out it is moving a bit slower then expected but overall things are still on track. We probably won't see the type of accumulations we once were expecting but some snow is still expected across much of the region. With a layer of snow over the ice we are getting now is going to make for very dangerous driving conditions.[/quote]


Agreed. Thanks again for all the inputs from all the pro mets. Y'all have been a huge help.

[don]

very small sleet pellets here in San Antonio looks like theres either a band of snow or moderate freezing rain heading towards Austin and San Antonio, will be interesting to see what happens under this band...

[Andrew]

Euro: That is 0.17 inches liquid equivalent, it clearly isn't all snow and 10:1 ratios are rather optimistic

If its right, and assume 50/50 ice over snow, almost an inch of snow over almost a tenth of ice, the city is closed for business until after lunch.

At that point .13 in of it would be snow.

Can't assume sub-freezing 850 mb means snow. The NAM valid 6Z (now) shows an entire sub-freezing saturated column, but barely freezing, from about 650 mb on down. Been learning some from Northeast pro-mets at another forum, who don't look just at partial thicknesses or 850 mb temps, but forecast on soundings. And the saturated layer, sub-freezing, but warm for crystals to form. I assume you're looking at same AccuWx PPV text I am.

Close enough now, its RUC and radar and ground truth time anyway.

I know but with the interaction with the ULL this should almost all be snow.

[wxman666]

Current conditions in my area according to HGX say "Light Freezing Rain/Fog/Mist."

[jeff]

Police office struck by car on US 59 and I-10 due to ice.

HCTRA closing Beltway 8 at US 59 S

TXODT sand truck overturned at I-10 and Fry

US 59 closed both directions at Wharton.

Fort Bend County has suspended all medical transports due to icing

[helloitsb]

Police office struck by car on US 59 and I-10 due to ice.

HCTRA closing Beltway 8 at US 59 S

TXODT sand truck overturned at I-10 and Fry

US 59 closed both directions at Wharton.

Fort Bend County has suspended all medical transports due to icing

sounds bad, real bad

[Andrew]

Check out west of San Antonio. Very good lift from the ULL and as it tracks east that will continue until it reaches here. I think the morning looks promising.

[singlemom]

Frozen car but wet (not frozen) sidewalks and pretty dry streets here in Spring (near SplashTown). I'm confused, but holding on to the concensus here that it's still a ways off...and it's coming....though not the Icepocalpyse that we were thinking. Right?

*Edit* "Ah!" Andrew chimed in with the ULL out there. Whew. Thanks, Andrew!

[txsnowmaker]

I am assuming that the thundersnow/thundersleet potential that NWS mentioned earlier would come in with the heart of the ULL later this morning, if it transpires.

[clute28]

So this was the "big ice threat " for the coast? Some light mist

What a load of bull butter..this is y I don't buy into the oh were gunna have ice and snow blah blah..it could still happen but I'm not impressed

[djjordan]

Everyone .... it does not take long for ice to take effect ...... I am seeing a real good glaze forming in my area which means area roads are becoming slick and dangerous very quickly .... be very careful.

[helloitsb]

@wxman666, we are pretty close to each other as the crow flies, are your streets/sidewalks freezing up?

[svrwx0503]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF -FZRA TO -SN FROM 03Z THIS EVENING. RADAR
SHOWING AREAWIDE COVERAGE OF EITHER LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/ICE
PELLETS/LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES HOVER A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER
SIDE OF FREEZING. REPORTS OF EITHER A GLAZE UPWARDS TO 1/4" THICK
ICE COVERAGE ACROSS LOCALES BETWEEN KCLL AND KIAH. THUS...PREVAILED
-FZRA FROM THE JUMP...WITH A TRANSITION TO A SLEET MIX IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...TURNING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM 09Z THROUGH
13Z AS COLUMN EVAP COOLS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. MVFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES DURING PERIODS OF THIS LIGHT FROZEN MIX/PRECIP.
CLEARING OUT THROUGH MID-MORNING...MAINLY SKC BY MID AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDS IN FROM THE WEST. 31