February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF STATES...
A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION...APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. POTENTIAL
FOR VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOW
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
RETURN ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY
EVOLVE...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION...TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING IN OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODEST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
STILL UNCLEAR...BUT MAY EXCEED THE 10 PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR
A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 700
MB ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...LOWERING TO THE 850-700 MB LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GULF COAST.

..KERR.. 02/04/2011

[rnmm]

LOL!! Snow or no snow I am breaking out the wine and sitting back and watch for something to fall!!

[rain]

wish I had some Xanax

[Katdaddy]

Very well put Paul. Weather wisdom from the elders

[singlemom]

Our board is bi-polar

Signs are good. Lets be patient now.

Yes, but we love it anyways. Everybody....breathe....and...*round 2!!!* (and THANK YOU to all our Pro Mets out there for hanging in there with us! Our Fourth and Fifth Graders have been following you guys around all day. They think you're pretty cool).

[txsnowmaker]

Interesting post, srain. Thanks for sharing the convective update. By the way, does anyone know if the precip showing up on radar in Chambers, Liberty, and Jefferson Counties is reaching the ground?

http://weather.chron.com/radar/station. ... =1#MAPLOOP

[Ptarmigan]

Our board is bi-polar

Signs are good. Lets be patient now.

I think the snow is more of a night time event while we sleep. Seems like most snow events happen at night, along side with hurricanes.

[helloitsb]

Our board is bi-polar

Signs are good. Lets be patient now.

I think the snow is more of a night time event while we sleep. Seems like most snow events happen at night, along side with hurricanes.

sleep?

[C2G]

If I may, when you guys post a prediction, would you please sign either Promet or amatuer or follower or something to distinguish between being educated in the anomalies of weather and not being educated? I have been a member of this forum for quite a while and am still having trouble following those who really know what we will get weatherwise vs those who are guessing.

Seems to me that might cut down on some of the confusion. Just an observation.
Follower

They usually have the big Gold label that says ProMet.
And although I agree with a lot of what you're saying, you don't necessarily have to have a degree in meteorology to see a dark cloud moving towards you and know rain will soon come.
Some of these so-called amateurs have an abundance of weather experience. Don't believe srain has a degree in meteorology, yet I value his experience and wisdom in reading weather maps/patterns, plus finding the finer anomalies which could influence our weather.

I do believe people need to relax a little, especially when dealing with these Professional Meteorologist.
Meteorology isn't an exact science, and I don't see the day coming soon when weather can be predicted with 100% certainty.

Back to the topic of this thread;
My amateur observations finds the moisture increasing to our southwest/west.
This event hasn't even begun, and seriously I don't need to see 3-4" to be satisfied. Lived here since 72 and I get excited when I see one snowflake fall from the sky.

[wxman666]

Our board is bi-polar

Signs are good. Lets be patient now.

I think the snow is more of a night time event while we sleep. Seems like most snow events happen at night, along side with hurricanes.

sleep?

Real weather enthusiasts don't need sleep! Wuss! LOL! Kidding y'all. Nonetheless, with Annise Parker shutting down the city of Houston practically...I will NOT be missing this one!

[Ptarmigan]

sleep?

Some people sleep.

[Ptarmigan]

I looked at the water vapor and noticed the dry air is shrinking. Any take on it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-wv.html

[matthouston]

I have a question concerning dew point.

If someone can please explain what that is (in as few words as possible), that would be great!

I heard one of the local mets say that the magic will happen when the dew point and the temp meet. Right now, in Pasadena, the dew point is 22, temp is 32. Seems like we may have a ways to go (although the dew point was 19 a few hours ago).

[helloitsb]

If I may, when you guys post a prediction, would you please sign either Promet or amatuer or follower or something to distinguish between being educated in the anomalies of weather and not being educated? I have been a member of this forum for quite a while and am still having trouble following those who really know what we will get weatherwise vs those who are guessing.

Seems to me that might cut down on some of the confusion. Just an observation.
Follower

They usually have the big Gold label that says ProMet.
And although I agree with a lot of what you're saying, you don't necessarily have to have a degree in meteorology to see a dark cloud moving towards you and know rain will soon come.
Some of these so-called amateurs have an abundance of weather experience. Don't believe srain has a degree in meteorology, yet I value his experience and wisdom in reading weather maps/patterns, plus finding the finer anomalies which could influence our weather.

I do believe people need to relax a little, especially when dealing with these Professional Meteorologist.
Meteorology isn't an exact science, and I don't see the day coming soon when weather can be predicted with 100% certainty.

Back to the topic of this thread;
My amateur observations finds the moisture increasing to our southwest/west.
This event hasn't even begun, and seriously I don't need to see 3-4" to be satisfied. Lived here since 72 and I get excited when I see one snowflake fall from the sky.

Yes I agree about not having to have a degree to add insight as well as Steve does, Weather is an art like someone said here once

[Paul]

Is that moisture north of Corpus that is starting to overtake the dry air? Looks like the moisture forms a noticeable, large bump in the last couple of frames. Thoughts?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

nice catch....theres your lift and tap into GOM moisture....ULL doing what it was progged to do....

It was even more pronounced when I refreshed the image. It really built up a nice, thick, white ledge right that looks like a big lump.

thats going to swing around the base of the trof....game on...

[Frigid Aggie]

I looked at the water vapor and noticed the dry air is shrinking. Any take on it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-wv.html

No where close to even remotely knowing what I'm talking about, but the dry air mass appears to be losing on its southern edge and now in the northern edge as that ULL moves into Texas.

[SOFTBALLDAD]

Still way too dry - at 10pm the TV Mets will certainly have to finally give up on their models. I know weather is anything but an exact science but really - this bust is so obvious i cant believe eveyone is still hanging on to it. I couldnt believe it even this afternoon when the Mayor shut down the city. I am a total amature and even I could see it hours ago as that magic little wall we all have come to know and love was keeping everything South and East. Peace yall - its over

[nuby3]

Still way too dry - at 10pm the TV Mets will certainly have to finally give up on their models. I know weather is anything but an exact science but really - this bust is so obvious i cant believe eveyone is still hanging on to it. I couldnt believe it even this afternoon when the Mayor shut down the city. I am a total amature and even I could see it hours ago as that magic little wall we all have come to know and love was keeping everything South and East. Peace yall - its over

OH MAN. I wish I could see your face tomorrow when you see what's happened. Things look great to me. the storm is still WAY out west of us.

[unome]

I looked at the water vapor and noticed the dry air is shrinking. Any take on it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-wv.html

the moisture building shows up nicely on this shot, select "inverted" for enhancement

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... /usir.html

[Paul]

I just did a GSR or Grocery Store Run and I have very small precip falling. few very small flakes...they evaporate pretty quickly though....so if that does quiet the "bust" crowd nothing will.....just a matter of time..need to cool this column down so this stuff will stick...dewpoint in the teens so I dont see a problem with that....