February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[Andrew]

GFS definetly delays the arrival of colder air and less moisture, along with what the NAM showed you have to go hmmmm

lol, no. We can see the moisture across Texas right now and notice they are already underdoing activity. Also, the NAM was colder than its 18z run, so that was a good thing. But again, very minor details that do not matter much

It's nowcast time, now. There really isn't any point looking at the models in so much detail at this point. Shades of the 6z NAM that took away all the snow the morning of the Dec 4th event last December...

Nothing has changed. Calm down guys, lol. You guys have very drastic emotions

Just stating the model. Wasn't saying anything else but what it said. One thing that does worry me is the local media being so conservative. Yes it could very well be a system that is no big deal, but if we get caught in some heavy snow things could go downhill fast. They don't even mention that possibility.

[wxman57]

Ok, I'm still awake, but getting ready for bed. 00Z GFS is in enough to see that it ends the precip by 6pm tomorrow across Houston. That's about 3-4 hours earlier than previous runs, giving us a narrower window for any snow. It also keeps accumulations north of Houston.

[greg_kfdmtv]

New to this board. Greg Bostwick just came on, kfdm in beaumont, and said we're in for a significant snow event down to the coast. He'll give further details in 10 minutes, but did say areas just to out north ans west could receive up to 8 inches locally!

That's strange....I was just on the air and said nothing of the kind!

[wxman57]

Hello everyone. I'm not new to the boards, but I typically "participate" as a spectator, as I know NOTHING at all about weather. I just find it fascinating.

My question has to do with school closings. I know northerners laugh at us, but it seems this could actually be a "significant" event for southeast Texas and could definitely justify a few school closings.

I attend day and evening classes at University of Houston Downtown. What is the likelihood that the college will choose to close its doors, at least for the evening classes before things begin to stick (if that ends up happening).

I know schools can be VERY stubborn from time to time. My wife teaches ninth grade at Pasadena Memorial HS and their school forbid the teachers from taking the kids out to enjoy the Dec 4th snow - acted like it wasn't even happening. Scrooges!

I don't see anything to indicate there will be dangerous driving conditions across the Houston area. Temps will remain above freezing, so roads will just be wet.

[AggieBuckeye]

Now that is some comedy gold Greg!

[wxman57]

Oh, and here's that 00Z GFS snow accumulation map. Maybe 1/4" to 1/2" north of I-10. May be reasonable, though it'll greatly depend on timing and snowfall rates.

[srainhoutx]

New to this board. Greg Bostwick just came on, kfdm in beaumont, and said we're in for a significant snow event down to the coast. He'll give further details in 10 minutes, but did say areas just to out north ans west could receive up to 8 inches locally!

That's strange....I was just on the air and said nothing of the kind!

Bye bye!

[Mr. T]

Snow bands approaching the Dallas area and IH-35 corridor, a lot sooner than any model is forecasting

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southpla ... e_loop.php

Anyway, I'm going to get some sleep. See you guys tommorow

[Andrew]

Oh, and here's that 00Z GFS snow accumulation map. Maybe 1/4" to 1/2" north of I-10. May be reasonable, though it'll greatly depend on timing and snowfall rates.

Yea but honestly wxman do you think this is reasonable especially with how fast the GFS just diminishes the moisture. I mean even in 6 hours the moisture is not extended that far out east. I don't know maybe I am seeing something wrong.

[sleetstorm]

ProfMET, did you lie to eveyone on this weather forum just now?

[Mr. T]

Yea but honestly wxman do you think this is reasonable especially with how fast the GFS just diminishes the moisture. I mean even in 6 hours the moisture is not extended that far out east. I don't know maybe I am seeing something wrong.

looks good to me...

[sleetstorm]

Sorry guys, that may have been another channel. I was flipping back and forth, so it may not have been greg

Your apology is accepted, ProfMET. We just do not need or want any data that would end up causing people problems regarding this unfolding weather event.

[greg_kfdmtv]

This time i was watching greg, lol. He said 2-3 inches for the beaumont area.....not 8 inches!!!! I'll take it though

I don't know who you are watching...but it's not me. I am just expecting a few snowflakes with NO accumulation in Beaumont.

[southerngale]

This time i was watching greg, lol. He said 2-3 inches for the beaumont area.....not 8 inches!!!! I'll take it though

No, he didn't.

He even had a graph that showed a trace to 1 inch in the Golden Triangle area, from the coast up through the Lakes area, pointing out that there likely wouldn't be much, if any accumulation in Beaumont. He had 2-3 inches well north of the Beaumont area, closer to Central TX.

[weatherguy425]

People are already calling for a bust over at s2k.... someone make me feel better hahahah

[Andrew]

People are already calling for a bust over at s2k.... someone make me feel better hahahah

See that is what really ****** me off. One minute everyone is saying look at all the wintry weather coming, and then the next they call it a bust. Stay committed! At this point I think it is just best to watch and whatever happens happens.

[Andrew]

Where did Wxman say dew points were high?

Looking around things look good.

Oklahoma- 22
Dallas- 29
Austin- 33
Hunstville- 34


They should drop some more overnight so I think dew point wise Houston should be fine.

[weatherguy425]

IAH has a dew point of 38, and while it will fall....it wont fall into the mid to upper 20's as desired for good wet bulbing

[Andrew]

IAH has a dew point of 38, and while it will fall....it wont fall into the mid to upper 20's as desired for good wet bulbing

Yes but freezing should be reachable.

[weatherguy425]

yes, but not while precip is falling