February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[wxman57]

FYI, I'm looking at the CLL special sounding from this morning and it shows the air temp at 700mb (10,000ft) to be about 3C colder than the models think it is. That may suggest more precip falling as snow and less as sleet across Houston. That's assuming the same error translates south to Houston.

[wxman57]

At work at Hobby airport. Light precip here as well...

Wxman57...do you see anything?

Heading out for a "PLO" (parking lot observation).

[noname_77065]

the 12z gfs is indeed wetter than the 12z nam

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030m.gif

[TexasMetBlake]

Well this is my first and probably only post for today. Looks like the snow will be starting soon. There is already ice being reported on some ramps at IH-610 SOUTH LOOP Eastbound At SH-288. I suspect it'll be a beautiful but dangerous site by tonight. Guess what time Blake gets off work? 10 pm! Guess how far I have to drive? 42 miles! Is Blake concerned? YES!!!

[jdman]

wxman, surrounding soundings giving you pause as to whether or not projected accumulations can/will be reached?

[Andrew]

I want the amazingly consistent GFS and NAM runs, run after run, suggesting about an inch at best to be wrong.

Oh, yes, do I want to play in the snow tonight.

Nothing about the nam or gfs suggests consistent.

QPF forecasts have been consistently depressing.

I hope I am pelted with rocks and bottles for hugging the US models tomorrow after four inches of snow have fallen. Really.

Don't worry we will. in all honesty though we appreciate your input.

[Baseballdude2915]

At work at Hobby airport. Light precip here as well...

You know a Jason from cargo?

[srainhoutx]

For those still following the models, the Canadian (GEM) is a bit drier to start, but does suggest banding during the overnight hours across SE TX...

[tireman4]

Well this is my first and probably only post for today. Looks like the snow will be starting soon. There is already ice being reported on some ramps at IH-610 SOUTH LOOP Eastbound At SH-288. I suspect it'll be a beautiful but dangerous site by tonight. Guess what time Blake gets off work? 10 pm! Guess how far I have to drive? 42 miles! Is Blake concerned? YES!!!

Stay safe Blake.

[noname_77065]

For those still following the models, the Canadian (GEM) is a bit drier to start, but does suggest banding during the overnight hours across SE TX...

Quite a bit wetter for sure. 1-2" in the city, 2-3" near CLL, and 2.5"-3" toward Austin/SA.

[wxman57]

Cloud bases too high for precip where I am (about 3miles SE of Hobby). 12Z NAM and GFS both have near 0.1" precip next 24 hours. That's not much. All indications are that snow accumulations will be toward the lower end of estimates (1/2-2" vs. 3-5").

[cristina99]

has it changed for Montgomery County? I think a lot of people will be upset with me if it doesn't snow.

[PaulEInHouston]

At work at Hobby airport. Light precip here as well...

You know a Jason from cargo?

No sir. In private aviation here.

Latest update from SPC

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL...

THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD
REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER
WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN
ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING
TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN
700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED
CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

[matthouston]

I have to say that, as a non weather pro, the up and down and back and forth is making me slightly crazy. I'm just wondering why no one has realized that the models obviously don't have a firm hold on what this system is going to do. I agree that we shouldn't get our hopes up, but I think I prefer to just watch the sky, rather than stay indoors and rely on computers. Just my opinion...

[clute28]

Wow I went from 50% precip down to 30% now during the day..what happend ...

[noname_77065]

things still going according to plan...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1100 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE RECONFIGURES THE WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE THOSE ALONG AND EAST OF A PLEASANTON TO LOCKHART TO
LEXINGTON LINE...AND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY COUNTIES TO INCLUDE
THOSE ALONG AND EAST OF A LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE FORM
OF THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH FROM THE COASTAL BEND
INTO SOUTH TX LATE TODAY WITH REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRIES INCREASING
FROM THE NE AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER DRAWS CLOSER TO WEST TX. TEMPS
MODIFIED SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. MORNING UPDATE WILL ALSO
ADDRESS THE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WIND CHILLS WITH THE WIND CHILL
ADVY BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. UPDATED WSW TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.

[srainhoutx]

Wow I went from 50% precip down to 30% now during the day..what happend ...

Just a later start time. Updated HGX WSW Statement Text...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1041 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM NOON CST
TODAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-040100-
/O.CON.KHGX.WS.W.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1041 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 6 AM TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION TYPE: A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
MAGNOLIA TO HUNTSVILLE TO CROCKETT...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. TO THE
EAST OF A LINE FROM SARGENT TO ANGLETON TO ANAHUAC...A MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET IS EXPECTED.

AMOUNTS: IN THE SNOW AND SLEET AREA...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SMALL BANDS. IN THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AREA...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1/10 ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH.

IMPACTS: DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER WITH THIS EVENT THAN
DURING THE LAST FEW WINTER WEATHER EVENTS TO IMPACT THIS AREA.
THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF ROADS BECOMING ICED OVER...EVEN WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ELEVATED SURFACES
LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE AT THEIR WORST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WATCH AREA MAY BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE ON ROADWAYS...
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. EXERCISE
CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY. IN ADDITION...POWER OUTAGES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

[sau27]

has it changed for Montgomery County? I think a lot of people will be upset with me if it doesn't snow.

It is more likely than not to snow. Of course there are no guarantees in weather, but nothing is set in stone about how much will fall. If you get under a band you could see a couple inches if not, maybe a dusting. But down here snow is snow I suppose

[Katdaddy]

Brownsville already coming to a halt with freezing drizzle:

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1100 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

TXZ253>255-031900-
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...
WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN
1100 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.NOW...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THROUGH 1 PM...WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
LOWER VALLEY...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MANY
ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND ALL MAIN LANES OF HIGHWAY 77 FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO HARLINGEN HAVE BEEN CLOSED. IN ADDITION...HIGHWAY
83 FROM HARLINGEN TO THE CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN
CLOSED. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
NECESSARY. AVOID OVERPASSES...THEY ARE ALREADY ICE COVERED.

[Baseballdude2915]

Just got a text from a friend that works at Hobby Airport. Light sleet and snow mix right now. He has word that hobby will close soon for the rest of today and possibly tomorrow.