February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

HPC Short Term Discussion:

FARTHER WEST THERE SHOULD BE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE AND SO THE REMAINDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVEN INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF SNOW..SLEET...AND FREEZING
RAIN.

[lyndie32]

Just took the trash out. Brrrr...24.8F up here at this time...

Hubby driving on hwy 105 at Moss Hill North Liberty County and called to tell me it was snowing for a short distance there!

[cristina99]

not sure if David Paul is saying this as a tease, but he just said "could we really see 3-5" of snow." He DID say some people east of I-45 MIGHT see the heaviest bands. I wish the bands would just go straight north. Oh, well, it's 80% - so we'll see something.

[perk]

I will be interested what Jeff has to say this morning. Onward to downtown for work which may be end a little early today

I'm really interested in Jeff's update too.

[snowman65]

wow.....temps at my house this morning in Orange were about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. We may just end up in the 40's and cold rain today.....fine with me......just no sleet/freezing rain..

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 0z CMC, and it doesn't have the heaviest precip arriving until later on this afternoon

I don't understand what you're talking about, wxman...

Also, dewpoints are much higher than the GFS suggests right now. Upper teens instead of lower teens. Again, suggesting to me that the GFS does not have a great handle on the amount of moisture advecting into the area right now.

Yesterday's CMC had widespread precip across SE TX before sunrise (significant accumulations between 00Z and 12Z this morning. I don't see much difference in the 00Z run. Remember that the precip occurs within 12 hours prior to the map valid time. 00Z Canadian shows precip starting well inland before 12Z. It does have the low farther offshore than the 12Z run yesterday did.

My main concern as far as any extreme amounts of snow is available moisture. In addition, the GFS, RUC and NAM indicate a warm tongue at 700mb that could result in a period of sleet vs. snow. I'd be quite pleasantly surprised if Houston gets as much as 2 inches of snow. My gut (and most models) says less than 2" will be the norm.

[Portastorm]

You're saving your forecast for "extreme amounts of snow" anyhow for Austin, right Wxman57?!

[wxman57]

You're saving your forecast for "extreme amounts of snow" anyhow for Austin, right Wxman57?!

Not quite, but you could get 1-2". Heavier amounts could be east of Austin and NW of Houston (2-4") where precip will start as snow rather than sleet. You're moisture-limited there in Austin.

[srainhoutx]

One thing that catches my eye is the Upper Low has dug a bit deeper trough and the Polar jet has buckled a bit further to our W. It does appear that the U/L is on the move and beginning to swing ENE. Also of note is another Upper Air disturbance riding the sub tropical jet near Baja. The 06Z RGEM does seem to 'over do' the initial setup (moisture/over running) relaxes a bit and then makes for an interesting late afternoon and overnight across the area. The 06Z NAM and GFS somewhat agree. It's now cast time as they say and we will soon know what this event will bring for the area. Regardless, stay safe. This has been one of the more interesting weather events to track, discuss and watch unfold. Good Luck everyone.

[wxman57]

Well, thats depressing. Not completely surprising, but depressing.

Come on! How often do you see "snow likely" in the forecast here? Just enjoy whatever falls, even if it's not a Chicago-style blizzard. I'm confident we'll see snow, just not so confident how much will accumulate.

[srainhoutx]

Well, thats depressing. Not completely surprising, but depressing.

Come on! How often do you see "snow likely" in the forecast here? Just enjoy whatever falls, even if it's not a Chicago-style blizzard. I'm confident we'll see snow, just not so confident how much will accumulate.

Not often you'll see wxman57 say those words for SE TX...

[ticka1]

I will be interested what Jeff has to say this morning. Onward to downtown for work which may be end a little early today

I am at work early too - hope to leave early and get home before the frozen precip starts accumulating...exciting day ahead - its Nowcasting - instead of the model casting.

[Snowman]

I just want enough snow to cancel school. but also it would be nice to see an accumulation in my yard since that has never happened in any of the past few events...

[wxman57]

I just want enough snow to cancel school. but also it would be nice to see an accumulation in my yard since that has never happened in any of the past few events...

I'd be surprised if school was not canceled for Friday. And I think you'll see accumulations in your yard this time.

[Andrew]

I just want enough snow to cancel school. but also it would be nice to see an accumulation in my yard since that has never happened in any of the past few events...

I'd be surprised if school was not canceled for Friday. And I think you'll see accumulations in your yard this time.

Well thanks for your input wxman. Don't take any offense when I say I hope you are completely wrong with your prediction for today and tomm.

[ticka1]

Well, thats depressing. Not completely surprising, but depressing.

Come on! How often do you see "snow likely" in the forecast here? Just enjoy whatever falls, even if it's not a Chicago-style blizzard. I'm confident we'll see snow, just not so confident how much will accumulate.

Not often you'll see wxman57 say those words for SE TX...

Amen!!! wxman57 finally said SNOW for us here in SE Texas!

[srainhoutx]

SPC shifts convective activity a bit further W...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES...WITH COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT FL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...AND IS PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER WEST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /CENTERED AROUND
600MB/ WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA. THIS AREA MAY
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

..HART/GRAMS.. 02/03/2011

[tireman4]

Well, thats depressing. Not completely surprising, but depressing.

Come on! How often do you see "snow likely" in the forecast here? Just enjoy whatever falls, even if it's not a Chicago-style blizzard. I'm confident we'll see snow, just not so confident how much will accumulate.

Not often you'll see wxman57 say those words for SE TX...

Ladies and Gentlemen (especially the old timers...LOL) savor those words. In time, he will be loving the heat and humidity in July.

[snowman65]

Beaumont has increased to 90% coverage tonight and tomorrow...is that looking like freezing rain/sleet?

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps it's me, but with a chance of thunder snow/thunder sleet, this certainly not our ordinary winter weather event for the Upper TX Coast. I've experienced thunder snow out W. It is an amazing thing to witness.