February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Mr. T]

At this time of the night on December 4th, 2009 (our last snow event), we were sitting at 45 degrees with a dewpoint of 32.

Compare that to right now where IAH is sitting at 31 with a dewpoint of 16

The temperature on that day was 40 degrees at noon just before the snow began. The temperature actually never fell to freezing until just before midnight that day, well after the snow was over

This is why this event could be much worse if current forecasts hold

[Mr. T]

I too would love to know that.

Probably at the 4 am update...

[TexasBreeze]

They will probably wait till the full morning package to upgrade the watch.
Clouds did indeed roll in and some looked thick and dark too. Good signs!:)

[wxman666]

I too would love to know that.

Probably at the 4 am update...

Grr....I've waited two weeks and it always seems like the remaining few hours are the longest.

[txsnowmaker]

Big day ahead. Tomorrow should be interesting to say the least.

[wxman666]

They will probably wait till the full morning package to upgrade the watch.
Clouds did indeed roll in and some looked thick and dark too. Good signs!:)

TXBreeze....just for clarification where in NW Houston are you? I would be curious to see how much our weather differs. I know someone (srain I think) is on 1960/hwy 6 which is kind of close to where I am. If a few miles turns out to make a big difference...that'd be an interesting outcome!

[txsnowmaker]

Is HRRR a reliable short-term "nowcasting" tool? This appears to show quite a bit of moisture/precip overnight into the morning, but perhaps I am misreading it.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... ull&wjet=1

[Andrew]

Is HRRR a reliable short-term "nowcasting" tool? This appears to show quite a bit of moisture/precip overnight into the morning, but perhaps I am misreading it.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... ull&wjet=1

Shows a lot of banding over SE Texas.

We are on page 246 on the third day of February! That is amazing.

[txsnowmaker]

Is HRRR a reliable short-term "nowcasting" tool? This appears to show quite a bit of moisture/precip overnight into the morning, but perhaps I am misreading it.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... ull&wjet=1

Shows a lot of banding over SE Texas.

We are on page 246 on the third day of February! That is amazing.

Can you confirm the hours covered by this graphic?

[TexasBreeze]

wxman666 I'm around the 1960 and Veterans Memorial area. There could be interesting differences depending on small banding features and where they develop!

[Andrew]

Is HRRR a reliable short-term "nowcasting" tool? This appears to show quite a bit of moisture/precip overnight into the morning, but perhaps I am misreading it.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... ull&wjet=1

Shows a lot of banding over SE Texas.

We are on page 246 on the third day of February! That is amazing.

Can you confirm the hours covered by this graphic?

What do you mean?

[txsnowmaker]

What do you mean?[/quote]

I am trying to figure out the start time for the images so I know what time hour 1 refers to.

[unome]

What do you mean?

I am trying to figure out the start time for the images so I know what time hour 1 refers to.[/quote]

the upper right corner of the graphic will show you

first


& last

[Andrew]

What do you mean?

I am trying to figure out the start time for the images so I know what time hour 1 refers to.[/quote]

00h = 004 UTC or 10pm CST 1h= 11pm

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/zulu-utc.html

[txsnowmaker]

What do you mean?

I am trying to figure out the start time for the images so I know what time hour 1 refers to.

00h = 004 UTC or 10pm CST 1h= 11pm

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/zulu-utc.html[/quote]


Thanks! So this is showing banding over SE Texas beginning later tonight and going through 2 pm tomorrow (Thursday)?

[wxman666]

wxman666 I'm around the 1960 and Veterans Memorial area. There could be interesting differences depending on small banding features and where they develop!

I am betting so. We are approx. 20 minutes from Waller...off of 290 in Cypress...so we're a ways up here...betting we'll see some significant totals.

[Mr. T]

If you're around Andrew, does the day 7 Euro show another snow event at day 7? It looks like it does...

[wxman666]

If you're around Andrew, does the day 7 Euro show another snow event at day 7? It looks like it does...

I noticed Gene Norman included a 30% mixed precip chance for Tuesday.

[unome]

So this is showing banding over SE Texas beginning later tonight and going through 2 pm tomorrow (Thursday)?

no

UTC -6 hrs = CST (or UTC -5 hrs = CDT )

the last frame shows 19:00 UTC in the upper corner, so that would be 13:00 hours in CST, or 1 PM (because 19:00 - 6:00 = 13:00)



edited to correct formula...

[HouTXmetro]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

And it begins, Radar near San Angelo beginning to light up.