February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS ensembles are honing in on a solution...

[Tpeezy]

http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Houston+TX+77007

Take a look at this forecast guys. Unless I am missing something, it is supposed to get to 41 degrees today and 40 tomorrow. That doesnt appear to be suitable conditions for freezing snow and ice to accumulate tomorrow afternoon/evening. Plus I've been hearing a lot of you say ya'll doubt it will even get to freezing tomorrow. Whats the reason for the discrepancy?

[C2G]

Yes. Definitely concerned

Excited but very concerned. Working night shift and having to drive 60 miles round trip, plus having to drive over the Galveston Causeway to and fro makes me extremely nervous.

[weather101]

It's my understanding that most of the power lines in this area are a breakaway line because of hurricanes...it is meant to lessen the damage to the poles...In 1997...In the Beaumont area we had power lines down everywhere...as well as trees. This is why the NWS in Lake Charles needs make sure they are working to ready people for such issues...

[TexasMetBlake]

http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Houston+TX+77007

Take a look at this forecast guys. Unless I am missing something, it is supposed to get to 41 degrees today and 40 tomorrow. That doesnt appear to be suitable conditions for freezing snow and ice to accumulate tomorrow afternoon/evening. Plus I've been hearing a lot of you say ya'll doubt it will even get to freezing tomorrow. Whats the reason for the discrepancy?

Look man, It is going on 1pm and we are STILL BELOW FREEZING. Do you honestly think we're going for 41 degrees today? Come on. No tv met even has that for their forecast. The upper 30s that they predicted is a bust, too.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Houston+TX+77007

Take a look at this forecast guys. Unless I am missing something, it is supposed to get to 41 degrees today and 40 tomorrow. That doesnt appear to be suitable conditions for freezing snow and ice to accumulate tomorrow afternoon/evening. Plus I've been hearing a lot of you say ya'll doubt it will even get to freezing tomorrow. Whats the reason for the discrepancy?

Your first problem is going to weather.com It's all computer generated and no thought is put into the forecast.

[snowman65]

http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Houston+TX+77007

Take a look at this forecast guys. Unless I am missing something, it is supposed to get to 41 degrees today and 40 tomorrow. That doesnt appear to be suitable conditions for freezing snow and ice to accumulate tomorrow afternoon/evening. Plus I've been hearing a lot of you say ya'll doubt it will even get to freezing tomorrow. Whats the reason for the discrepancy?

Look man, It is going on 1pm and we are STILL BELOW FREEZING. Do you honestly think we're going for 41 degrees today? Come on. No tv met even has that for their forecast. The upper 30s that they predicted is a bust, too.

easy there CC....don't scare the new people off....this is a family -friendly board..

[redneckweather]

It's going on 1pm and it is 24.7 degrees at my house just south of Lake Conroe Dam. I won't even get close to 32 today. Woooweeeee, this is the real deal! Ok, fixing to make some deer chili.

[Tpeezy]

Yea I just wanted ya'lls thoughts on that. I've lurked here for every major weather event over the past 2 years. I've always had a passion for weather so I try and read as much as I can and took a MET class my freshman year of college. Ya'll seem very knowledgeable so I trust your opinions much more than weather.com. I was just curious as to how they could be so far off. However, in every ice event we have had, it always seems like they go with the most conservative forecast. Although it does appear that at least Houston will get above freezing today... My uneducated guess is 34 or 35

[srainhoutx]

Welcome Tpeezy. We are glad you've joined us. You'll find a lot of knowledgeable folks and Pro Mets here, so don't be too afraid to jump in on the discussions. A reminder to all our new folks to please go to your user control panel and update your profile to include a general location. That helps us when get into observation reports and any questions that folks may have for our Mets.

[snowman65]

I'm even holding at 25 at my house in Orange. Unless the suns comes out I don't see us making it to 32 either....

[Mr. T]

easy there CC....don't scare the new people off....this is a family -friendly board..

People should expect backlash if they're going to post weather.com links

[C2G]

This event could be very different from the most recent ones. We'll have sub-freezing temps for many hours before the precip starts, which means the roads could become very hazardous almost immediately.
Man, I'm not looking forward to my drive tomorrow night.

[snowman65]

easy there CC....don't scare the new people off....this is a family -friendly board..

People should expect backlash if they're going to post weather.com links

OK.this is true.....hehe

[Mr. T]

Yea I just wanted ya'lls thoughts on that. I've lurked here for every major weather event over the past 2 years. I've always had a passion for weather so I try and read as much as I can and took a MET class my freshman year of college. Ya'll seem very knowledgeable so I trust your opinions much more than weather.com. I was just curious as to how they could be so far off. However, in every ice event we have had, it always seems like they go with the most conservative forecast. Although it does appear that at least Houston will get above freezing today... My uneducated guess is 34 or 35

"They" is a computer with no human input. That is how "they" are off

It's much better to follow the NWS or local mets

[DMWTex]

30 and holding in Tomball. Pipes are FROZEN

[Mr. T]

A pro met on American Wx said the 12z Euro shows 3 in. of snow for Houston

[randybpt]

So what im hearing is that beaumont will get all ice and Sleet man I need to make preparation if so I have a sister on chemo can't be without light should I prepare the motorhome seriously

[weatherfreak]

I teach at a junior high in Baytown and we have has 3 blackouts today already!! All the kids are in the hall and it's crazy!!! Has anyone heard of any school closings yet due to blackouts?

[Andrew]

A pro met on American Wx said the 12z Euro shows 3 in. of snow for Houston

12z euro shows .3in of moisture but the surface levels aren't always frozen. Since the rest of the column will be frozen it shouldn't be much of a problem but keep it in mind