biggerbyte wrote:Interesting to note that impact has changed their forecast for snow accumulations. It is now 1 to 3 inches in a swath from southwest to northeast, starting in south/southcentral Texas, to Northeast Texas. It just clips Harris and Montgomery Counties. It would seem redneck would maybe see the love, depending on where he is located up there. Areas east of that show a trace to 2 inches.
What a bizarre change.
That would reflect a band of slightly heavier snow associated with the core of the upper low as it tracks across the state.
Odd that yesterday the talk was that low was to pass right over S. E. Texas. I have not looked at it today, so I am assuming the models have shifted gears a bit. Makes sense that the heavier snow will be wherever the low passes. So, keep that in mind folks when expecting a big snow across our area. The word "trace" is being thrown around today.
Our NWS has nothing but rain mixed with Sleet through entire.event here in beaumont. Getting more discouraged as the day goes on. Still sitting at 22 cloudy skies
Yep, according to Impact Weather (not overly impressed with them) they expect the heavier totals to be well north of Metro Houston and even here in Montgomery County. I reached up and slapped that dude in the face when I saw his map!
redneckweather wrote:Yep, according to Impact Weather (not overly impressed with them) they expect the heavier totals to be well north of Metro Houston and even here in Montgomery County. I reached up and slapped that dude in the face when I saw his map!
Is this the same people who had everything south of IH-10 yesterday?
WXMAN...the oh mighty one you.were correct the last 2 snow events what's your analysis promise I wont jump up and slap you like.ED wants to do the dude on impact
I am right in the middle of metro Houston, two miles south of I-10, and NWS has up to four inches of accumulation forecasted for Thursday/Friday. This is an increase from yesterday's projections.
redneckweather wrote:Yep, according to Impact Weather (not overly impressed with them) they expect the heavier totals to be well north of Metro Houston and even here in Montgomery County. I reached up and slapped that dude in the face when I saw his map!
Is this the same people who had everything south of IH-10 yesterday?
Nope. Their map yesterday had a large area of snow from the Valley to SE TX and inland for 100-150 miles. There is a question as to whether precip right along the coastal counties will begin as freezing rain/sleet or snow. That could diminish snow accumulations in coastal counties. Plus, the upper low's track looks like it may be farther north, taking a core of slightly heavier snow north of Houston.
wxman57 wrote:
Nope. Their map yesterday had a large area of snow from the Valley to SE TX and inland for 100-150 miles. There is a question as to whether precip right along the coastal counties will begin as freezing rain/sleet or snow. That could diminish snow accumulations in coastal counties. Plus, the upper low's track looks like it may be farther north, taking a core of slightly heavier snow north of Houston.
Looking at the NAM and GFS, they both forecast the highest QPF totals and moisture towards the coast, though...
Based off the NAM and GFS and what other forecasters are saying, and with the low taking a little northerly track, I'm going to guess that the heaviest snow for the Houston Metro Area will be from Cypress to Tomball to Conroe and points northward to Hempstead and Huntsville.
randybpt wrote:WXMAN...the oh mighty one you.were correct the last 2 snow events what's your analysis promise I wont jump up and slap you like.ED wants to do the dude on impact
It looks like the air column over Beaumont/Port Arthur may be too warm to support snow at first. Your precip would most likely start out as freezing rain and sleet tomorrow afternoon but change to snow maybe mid morning on Friday a few hours before the precip ends. So you could see a dusting of snow Friday morning as the precip comes to an end. That's my best guess for your area now.
wxman57 wrote:
Nope. Their map yesterday had a large area of snow from the Valley to SE TX and inland for 100-150 miles. There is a question as to whether precip right along the coastal counties will begin as freezing rain/sleet or snow. That could diminish snow accumulations in coastal counties. Plus, the upper low's track looks like it may be farther north, taking a core of slightly heavier snow north of Houston.
Looking at the NAM and GFS, they both forecast the highest QPF totals and moisture towards the coast, though...
That's true, and that's what I pointed out yesterday. But if that precip is falling as freezing rain and sleet for a period of time, then that limits snow accumulations. Farther north, the precip would begin as snow and stay snow, so higher accumulations there.
harpman wrote:Believe it or not, we are getting reports of snow about 25 to 30 miles west of New Orleans.
RUC sounding would not support snow there:
Actual sounding from Slidell indicates very little moisture aloft and temps above freezing, too:
However, radar is showing a narrow band of precip just west of New Orleans. I guess we can't rule out some light snow there.
I just don't put a lot of faith in the soundings anymore. A few weeks ago no sounding within probably 150 miles would have supported sleet around here, but sure enough, it was sleeting outside and almost 50 degrees. Sometimes the weather is just much more dynamic and energetic than any sounding can capture....
AggieBuckeye wrote:Based off the NAM and GFS and what other forecasters are saying, and with the low taking a little northerly track, I'm going to guess that the heaviest snow for the Houston Metro Area will be from Cypress to Tomball to Conroe and points northward to Hempstead and Huntsville.
I don't mean to sound blonde (dumb), but does the above statement mean The Woodlands / Spring area in possiblity of heavy snow? And I didn't mean to tick off CC earlier with any comment I made early this morning.
Impact Weather rocks! We used to subscribe totheir service before the cut backs. I sitll get invites to the seminar though....I love those guys over there.....
again we are getting to the point where nowcast should be implemented and throw out the models....ok maybe a few more runs tonight but tomorrow you can all turn the models off for this event.......
wxman57 wrote:
That's true, and that's what I pointed out yesterday. But if that precip is falling as freezing rain and sleet for a period of time, then that limits snow accumulations. Farther north, the precip would begin as snow and stay snow, so higher accumulations there.
Do you think the threat in Houston is more of an icy situation and hazardous travel conditions rather than heavy (for us) snow amounts? I would think these hard freezes and cold afternoons we are witnessing prior to this event will give us the rare opportunity to see precip not only ice on bridges, but possibly normal road surfaces too...
AggieBuckeye wrote:Based off the NAM and GFS and what other forecasters are saying, and with the low taking a little northerly track, I'm going to guess that the heaviest snow for the Houston Metro Area will be from Cypress to Tomball to Conroe and points northward to Hempstead and Huntsville.
I don't mean to sound blonde (dumb), but does the above statement mean The Woodlands / Spring area in possiblity of heavy snow? And I didn't mean to tick off CC earlier with any comment I made early this morning.
Yes, that would include Spring and The Woodlands. I'm not a Pro Met, but based off my observations and giving it my best shot, I think the northern counties will see some love this time around.
